• Almond flour prices in the U.S. decreased in 2024, with export prices averaging $6.63/kg and imports at $6.74/kg, reflecting a 27% decline for exports and 13-14% for imports year-over-year, indicating increased competition and narrowing price spreads.

• The global almond flour market is projected to reach $1.21–1.48 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-9% through 2032-2034, driven by health trends favoring gluten-free and low-carb products.

• Pricing strategies should leverage grade differentiation, with conventional natural flour priced at $6.25–$7.25/kg, and organic options commanding a 10-25% premium, emphasizing quality and compliance to justify higher price points.

• Functional advantages of almond flour in gluten-free applications support premium pricing; studies show it offers superior texture and moisture retention compared to alternatives, making it a compelling choice for product formulations targeting quality-conscious consumers.

Pricing Benchmarks & Positioning

Product: Almond Flour
Section: Competitive Landscape

Almond flour pricing benchmarks and positioning: 2025 outlook and strategy

Executive summary

• Almond flour wholesale pricing in the United States softened through 2024, with export prices falling to approximately $5.06–$8.19 per kg (midpoint ≈ $6.63/kg) from $6.92–$11.22 per kg (midpoint ≈ $9.07/kg) in 2023. Import prices likewise eased to roughly $6.31–$7.16 per kg (midpoint ≈ $6.74/kg) from $7.06–$8.51 per kg (midpoint ≈ $7.79/kg), indicating a double‑digit year-over-year decline and narrowing of spreads between import and export benchmarks (Tridge, 2024).

• Market size estimates vary by firm but consistently indicate robust medium-term demand: expert estimates place the 2024 global almond flour market at approximately USD 1.21–1.48 billion, with projected compound annual growth of ~8–9% through 2032–2034, underpinned by gluten-free, low-carb, and clean-label trends (Expert Market Research, 2025, Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• Price positioning should recognize grade and use-case differentiation: blanched, fine-milled, certified-organic flour for bakery and retail channels typically commands a premium over conventional, natural (unblanched) industrial grades. Functional performance and validated quality systems (including allergen control) further justify price premia in B2B and retail settings (Fortune Business Insights, 2025; NIST, n.d.).

• Our 2025 working price bands (United States, conventional product, ex-works to FOB) for negotiation and list-price anchoring:

  • Conventional natural (unblanched), standard milling: $6.25–$7.25/kg
  • Conventional blanched, standard milling: $6.75–$8.25/kg
  • Conventional blanched, fine milling (cake/pastry performance focus): $7.25–$8.75/kg
  • Organic differentials: +10–25% over corresponding conventional grades (range depends on certification scope, volume, and audit transparency)
    These bands are derived from 2024 US import/export price distributions, with modest normalization for grade/processing variance and allowing channel-specific negotiation room (Tridge, 2024; Fortune Business Insights, 2025).

• Value-based positioning is supported by functional advantages in gluten-free applications: controlled studies show almond flour produces superior tenderness and perceived moistness compared with coconut-forward formulations in keto/gluten-free cupcakes—attributes that translate to higher consumer acceptance and justify premium ingredient pricing in formulations where texture is a critical outcome (Wolfe et al., 2021).

Methodology and sources

This report synthesizes price benchmarks from transactional analytics covering United States import/export flows (Tridge) and triangulates market structure and segmentation from reputable industry overviews (Fortune Business Insights), together with cross-checked market-size and growth projections from two independent commercial research firms (Expert Market Research; Persistence Market Research). Functional performance and quality drivers are grounded in peer-reviewed food science (PMC) and metrology/quality-control references (NIST). Given variance across commercial market estimates, we present ranges with explicit assumptions, prioritize directly observed price data, and isolate positioning recommendations to defensible, application-linked value drivers (Tridge, 2024; Fortune Business Insights, 2025; Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Wolfe et al., 2021; NIST, n.d.).

Market context and demand drivers

• Health and diet trends: Almond flour aligns with gluten-free, low-carbohydrate, and higher-protein preferences, driving adoption in bakery, confectionery, and snack applications. Multiple independent forecasters project high-single-digit global growth through the next decade, despite macro variability, underscoring resilient demand fundamentals (Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• Channel segmentation: The industry distinguishes by nature (conventional vs. organic), form (blanched vs. natural), and end-use (household/retail, foodservice, industrial). Conventional blanched flour for bakery remains the volume mainstay in developed markets; organic and fine-milled variants are the usual premium tiers (Fortune Business Insights, 2025).

• Functional differentiation: Peer-reviewed testing in keto/gluten-free cupcakes demonstrates almond flour’s sensory advantages (higher tenderness and perceived moistness) over coconut-heavy formulations. This supports maintaining a premium for almond flour in performance-critical gluten-free formulations and can anchor value-based pricing when ingredient substitution would reduce consumer acceptance or require compensatory formulation costs (Wolfe et al., 2021).

Wholesale pricing benchmarks (United States)

The most reliable near-term pricing signals are US import and export prices. The figures below summarize the recent trend (calendar years).

Table 1. United States almond flour price benchmarks (USD/kg)

Notes: “Low” and “High” reflect typical (non-outlier) bands reported for the period; export prices are FOB; import prices approximate CIF/LDP implications depending on reported basis. Year-over-year midpoints suggest a ~27% decline for exports and ~13–14% decline for imports from 2023 to 2024. Source: Tridge, US almond flour price analytics (Tridge, 2024).

Interpretation and implications:

• Sharpening competition and improved availability likely contributed to 2024 easing, with import and export midpoints converging around $6.6–$6.8/kg.
• The narrowing spread implies lower arbitrage between domestic and international channels, reinforcing the need for grade-based and capability-based differentiation (e.g., blanched/fine-milled, organic, allergen-controlled) to defend gross margins.
• Given 2024 softness, 2025 price-setting should lean on value communication and quality assurance rather than expecting broad market uplift; tactical contracting (volume tiers, duration) can mitigate commodity swings.

Drivers of almond flour pricing

• Almond input costs and supply dynamics: Almond flour cost structures are heavily influenced by almond kernel pricing and availability. While this report does not include kernel price series, macro commentaries highlight tariff changes and persistent supply chain challenges as relevant externalities through 2024–2025, affecting trade costs and working capital. These factors can widen delivered-price dispersion across buyers and regions during episodes of volatility (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Processing differentials: Blanching (skin removal) and fine milling increase process cost but deliver functional benefits (lighter color, milder flavor, finer crumb), valued in pastry, cake, and premium retail SKUs. Particle-size control and consistent milling are directly tied to crumb structure and volume in finished baked goods; standardization here supports premium pricing claims (Wolfe et al., 2021).

• Certification and compliance: Organic certification, allergen control systems, and validated testing add compliance costs but are prized by brand owners and retailers. Reference materials such as NIST RM 8404 support method validation for allergen detection, underpinning trust and auditability—capabilities that often sustain 10–25% price premia in B2B ingredient markets (NIST, n.d.).

• Channel structure and brand/private label dynamics: Private label flour categories generally compete on price with functional equivalence claims, while branded SKUs emphasize provenance, clean-label credentials, and performance attributes to justify higher shelf prices. As private label’s share expands in grocery, branded suppliers of almond flour must sharpen differentiators (e.g., grind precision, micro specs, verified sustainability) to preserve spread over private label offers (Archive Market Research, 2025).

Grade segmentation and price positioning

The following framework ties grade attributes to typical positioning levers. It is designed to help set list prices and negotiation floors, recognizing that actual transaction prices vary by volume, term, and customer compliance requirements.

Table 2. Positioning ladder by grade and capability (United States, 2025)

Notes: Bands are indicative ex-works to FOB for US-based transactions and assume lot volumes typical of B2B (≥1 MT). They are derived from 2024 import/export data plus grade differentials observed in functional/performance requirements. Buyers may secure lower prices with multi-quarter commitments and higher volumes. Sources: Tridge (price), FSI (segmentation), NIST (QA), PMC (functional performance) (Tridge, 2024; Fortune Business Insights, 2025; NIST, n.d.; Wolfe et al., 2021).

Functional performance as a pricing asset

Almond flour’s ability to deliver desirable crumb structure and tenderness in gluten-free/keto baking is not merely a marketing claim; it is supported by quantitative descriptive analysis and mechanical testing:

• In controlled cupcake trials, almond-forward formulations were rated significantly higher for tenderness (≈6.7–6.8 vs. 4.0–4.9 on a 9-point scale), perceived moistness, and cohesion compared with coconut-forward formulas, which were chewier and perceived as drier despite higher absolute moisture content after baking. This disconnect (perceived vs. measured moisture) underscores that mouthfeel improvements from almond flour are intrinsic and difficult to substitute without cost and complexity elsewhere in the formula (Wolfe et al., 2021).

• Crumb analysis showed smaller cell size and higher cell density in almond-forward cupcakes, consistent with finer milled inputs producing controlled aeration and softer bite—outcomes prized by premium gluten-free bakers. Suppliers offering tighter particle-size distributions (and disclosing PSD metrics) can credibly justify a higher price tier (Wolfe et al., 2021).

These documented performance advantages support a value-based pricing narrative—particularly in B2B negotiations—where the alternative (e.g., reformulation with coconut flour mixes) risks lower consumer acceptance or requires added hydrocolloids/emulsifiers that erode any ingredient-cost savings.

Market size context and strategic implications

While pricing is ultimately local and contract-driven, growth trajectories help contextualize competitive intensity:

• Expert Market Research estimates the global almond flour market at USD 1,213.63 million in 2024 with a forecast CAGR of 9.2% to 2034 (USD 2,926.26 million), pointing to sustained category expansion aligned with “better-for-you” ingredient adoption (Expert Market Research, 2025).

• Persistence Market Research offers a somewhat higher 2025 base (USD 1.48 billion) and projects USD 2.54 billion by 2032 (CAGR 8.1%), consistent in direction but reflecting methodological differences that are typical across syndicated providers (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• Fortune Business Insights emphasizes segmentation by nature (organic vs. conventional), form (blanched vs. natural), and end-use (household, foodservice, industrial), reinforcing the case for tiered pricing ladders across channels and certifications (Fortune Business Insights, 2025).

Taken together, volume growth with 2024 price easing means 2025 competition will likely intensify in the middle bands; defensible premium positions will rely on credibly superior functionality and demonstrable quality systems.

2025 pricing strategy recommendations

1. Anchor to observed 2024 bands, then layer value attributes

• Use the import/export midpoints (~$6.6–$6.8/kg) as the “commodity” floor for conventional grades; price up by 0.5–1.5/kg for blanched and fine-milled specifications, and by 10–25% for organic where certification and supply chain transparency are strong. Maintain a documented rationale (PSD data, micro specs, claims validation) to support the premium in procurement reviews (Tridge, 2024; NIST, n.d.).

2. Differentiate via performance data

• Share application-relevant metrics (e.g., D50/D90, oil content range, water activity) and, where possible, collaborative application results (crumb cell density, sensory panels) to translate technical attributes into customer value (yield, texture, consumer acceptance). The peer-reviewed evidence base can be cited to frame expectations in gluten-free product development (Wolfe et al., 2021).

3. Ring-fence premiums with compliance and risk reduction

• Pair pricing with allergen-management assurances (validated cleaning, ELISA method verification, RM traceability) and audit readiness. Premium buyers (retail brands, co-mans) value documented risk reduction in recalls and label accuracy, enabling sustainable differentials above commodity peers (NIST, n.d.).

4. Offer channel-specific packs and terms

• For retail/private label, compete with efficient pack sizes and stable specs; for foodservice/industrial, emphasize consistency and service levels (lead time, safety stock). Volume commitments (quarterly/semiannual) should trade for discounts within defined floors, protecting margin during input volatility (Archive Market Research, 2025).

5. Monitor trade costs and macro headwinds

• Maintain watchlists for tariff adjustments and logistics costs. Syndicated analysis highlights potential tariff and supply chain impacts into 2025; forward contracts should include reopeners tied to objective indices to balance risk between supplier and buyer (Research and Markets, 2025).

Risk factors to watch

• Almond kernel price volatility (weather in California and other producing regions, water availability).
• Trade/friction costs (tariffs, port delays) that could widen delivered-price bands.
• Demand elasticity in retail during economic slowdowns, which can increase private label mix and compress branded premiums.
• Regulatory shifts in allergen labeling/testing expectations that may raise compliance costs but can also widen competitive gaps for suppliers with mature QA systems (NIST, n.d.; Research and Markets, 2025).

Conclusion: A concrete positioning stance for 2025

Given 2024’s clear softening and convergence of US import/export midpoints near $6.6–$6.8/kg, the most defensible 2025 approach is to set disciplined floors anchored to those benchmarks and win margin through premiumization that customers can touch and measure: blanched/fine milling (with disclosed PSDs), verified organic status, and robust allergen-control documentation. For a conventional blanched, fine-milled SKU targeting bakery and retail brands, a list price in the $7.50–$8.75/kg range is justified when accompanied by performance and compliance evidence; organic counterparts can reasonably list at 10–25% higher depending on certification scope and audit transparency. Conversely, cost-focused industrial accounts should be quoted in the $6.25–$7.25/kg range for unblanched product, with incentives tied to volume and term. This stance balances competitive reality with credible value creation, increases resilience to macro volatility, and aligns with the sustained demand outlook forecast by multiple independent market observers (Tridge, 2024; Wolfe et al., 2021; Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Fortune Business Insights, 2025; NIST, n.d.; Research and Markets, 2025).

References

• Archive Market Research. (2025). Private label flour analysis 2025 and forecasts 2033: Unveiling growth opportunities. Archive Market Research. https://www.archivemarketresearch.com/reports/private-label-flour-171553

• Expert Market Research. (2025). Almond flour market size, share & industry growth | 2034. Expert Market Research. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Fortune Business Insights. (2025). Almond flour market size, share industry & forecast, 2032. Fortune Business Insights. https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/almond-flour-market-101928

• National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). (n.d.). Value assignment of reference material 8404 almond flour for allergen detection (NIST Special Publication 260-218). NIST. https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/SpecialPublications/NIST.SP.260-218.pdf

• Persistence Market Research. (2025, October 7). Almond flour market size, share & growth analysis, 2032. Persistence Market Research. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/almond-flour-market.asp

• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 almond flour market report – industry size, competition, trends and growth opportunities by region – forecast by types and applications (2024–2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srstid=AfmBOoqVC-ITjYhfAsv2Z6RVWsHQ9xnmSWSnsUapSFUW2MlwtEzjEbz

• Tridge. (2024). Almond flour price in United States. Tridge. https://dir.tridge.com/prices/almond-flour/US

• Wolfe, K., et al. (2021). Influence of almond and coconut flours on ketogenic, gluten-free cupcakes. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8666506/

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current wholesale pricing benchmarks for almond flour?

In 2024, almond flour wholesale pricing in the U.S. ranged from approximately $5.06 to $8.19 per kg for exports, with a midpoint of about $6.63/kg. Import prices were slightly higher, ranging from $6.31 to $7.16 per kg, with a midpoint of $6.74/kg.

How has the pricing trend for almond flour changed from 2023 to 2024?

There was a notable decline in almond flour prices from 2023 to 2024, with export prices decreasing by approximately 27% and import prices falling by 13-14%. This trend indicates increased competition and improved availability in the market.

What factors influence the pricing of almond flour?

Pricing is influenced by several factors, including almond kernel costs, processing methods (such as blanching and fine milling), and certification requirements (like organic status). These elements can lead to price differentials of 10-25% for organic products compared to conventional grades.

How does the quality of almond flour affect its market positioning?

Higher-quality almond flour, such as blanched and fine-milled varieties, commands premium pricing due to their functional advantages in baking and consumer preference for texture. For example, blanched, fine-milled almond flour can be priced between $7.25 and $8.75/kg based on its superior performance.

What is the projected growth for the almond flour market in the coming years?

The global almond flour market is projected to reach approximately USD 1.21 to 1.48 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 8-9% through 2032-2034. This growth is driven by increasing demand for gluten-free and low-carb products.

How should businesses approach pricing strategies for almond flour in 2025?

Businesses should anchor their pricing strategies to the observed 2024 price bands, adjusting for quality attributes and compliance factors. For instance, conventional blanched, fine-milled almond flour can be priced in the range of $7.50 to $8.75/kg, while organic variants may be priced 10-25% higher.

What are the key competitive dynamics affecting almond flour pricing?

The competitive landscape is shaped by the convergence of import and export prices, which narrows the arbitrage opportunities. Companies must focus on grade-based differentiation and demonstrate quality assurance to maintain margins in an increasingly competitive market.