• The almond flour market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8-9% through 2035, driven by health trends like gluten-free and keto diets, with North America remaining the largest market segment.

• Blue Diamond Growers leads the competitive landscape by investing in efficiency upgrades and expanding into consumer-ready products, positioning itself for cost leadership and brand diversification.

• Key competitive strategies include enhancing product innovation with almond-flour-forward formulations and optimizing channel distribution, as supermarkets account for approximately 65% of sales while e-commerce is rapidly growing.

• Companies must prioritize allergen management and traceability, utilizing validated reference materials like NIST RM 8404 to meet stringent quality standards and gain retailer trust in a market facing tariff volatility and rising substitute competition.

Competitive Moves

Almond flour competitive moves: 2025 outlook and strategic analysis

Product

Almond Flour

Section

Competitive Landscape

Executive summary

The almond flour category is entering 2025 with healthy demand tailwinds from gluten-free, keto, and “better-for-you” trends, yet it faces tighter margins and elevated volatility from tariffs, supply chain constraints, and raw material price swings. Across the sources provided, Blue Diamond Growers emerges as the scale leader doubling down on process efficiency and capacity earlier than peers, while brand-led specialists (e.g., Bob’s Red Mill, King Arthur) lean into product innovation and channel execution.

In my assessment, the decisive competitive moves for the next 24–36 months are: (1) capacity/efficiency upgrades similar to Blue Diamond’s earlier processing-line investments; (2) disciplined portfolio innovation toward convenient, clean-label, almond-flour-forward mixes and formats validated by sensory science; (3) gold-standard allergen detection and traceability (e.g., using NIST RM 8404) as a quality-cost-mitigation moat; and (4) channel mix optimization balancing supermarket dominance with fast-growing e-commerce. Players that pair operational scale with rigorous QA/compliance and consumer-led formulation advantages (softer texture, preferred sensory profile) will capture profitable share despite lower price elasticity and competition from substitutes (e.g., coconut, sunflower seed flours) (Hamer, 2017; Institute of Food Technologists, 2021; Phillips et al., n.d.; Fortune Business Insights, n.d.) (Hamer, 2017; Institute of Food Technologists, 2021; Phillips et al., n.d.; Fortune Business Insights, n.d.).

Market snapshot and trajectory

• Demand drivers: Health-oriented eating, gluten-free adoption, keto/paleo interest, and the rise of clean-label, plant-based ingredients continue to pull almond flour into baking, snacks, and retail-ready mixes (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021; Future Market Insights, n.d.) (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021; Future Market Insights, n.d.).

• Constraints: Input cost inflation, drought/production variability, tariff-policy uncertainty in 2025, and competition from cheaper substitutes (coconut, seed flours) constrain margins and complicate planning (Research and Markets, 2025; Fortune Business Insights, n.d.) (Research and Markets, 2025; Fortune Business Insights, n.d.).

• Channel dynamics: Supermarkets remain the largest distribution path; online sales show strong momentum across almond products, indirectly lifting flour velocity via DTC and marketplace listings (SNS Insider, 2023) (SNS Insider, 2023).

Estimates for market size and growth vary by methodology. A comparative snapshot is below.

Market size and growth outlook (comparative)

Across these views, a credible 2025–2035 CAGR corridor of roughly 8–9% emerges, with North America remaining the largest and most mature market, and e-commerce enabling breadth of assortment and speed-to-shelf for innovators (Maximize Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, n.d.; Market Research Future, n.d.) (Maximize Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, n.d.; Market Research Future, n.d.).

Competitive landscape: what leaders are doing

Capacity and efficiency moves

• Blue Diamond Growers invested in an additional, enclosed-conveyance production line in Salida as early as 2017, explicitly optimizing for efficiency and cost-effectiveness. This early move likely reduced per-unit costs and improved hygienic handling—advantages that compound when input prices and logistics are volatile (Hamer, 2017) (Hamer, 2017).

• Sustainability/process integration is emerging as a cost and ESG lever. Reports indicate Blue Diamond’s partnership with Divert, Inc. to convert processing byproducts into renewable energy—an approach that supports climate goals and may shield operating costs through waste valorization (Future Market Insights, n.d.) (Future Market Insights, n.d.).

Product and portfolio innovation

• Blue Diamond extended beyond ingredient supply into branded, consumer-ready innovations: almond-flour-based Baking Mixes and Tasty Little Cup single-serve mug cakes, aligning with convenience, gluten-free, and “better-for-you” cues (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021) (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021).

• Bob’s Red Mill has expanded specialty blends (e.g., Paleo Baking Flour), sharpening its differentiation in grain-free and low-carb applications with strong brand credibility among health-conscious consumers (Future Market Insights, n.d.) (Future Market Insights, n.d.).

Quality, compliance, and traceability

• Allergen management is a non-negotiable moat. NIST’s RM 8404 Almond Flour reference material provides a validated matrix for allergen detection, enabling manufacturers and labs to calibrate and verify methods—a practical edge for suppliers seeking stronger B2B credentials and retailer acceptance (Phillips et al., n.d.) (Phillips et al., n.d.).

Channel execution

• Supermarkets remain ~65% of almond-product sales with strong 2025 online growth—signals to invest in omnichannel packaging, content, and supply readiness for almond flour and adjacent almond-based goods (SNS Insider, 2023) (SNS Insider, 2023).

Product performance insight from sensory science: a competitive lever

An evidence-based formulation edge exists for almond flour in baked goods. In a controlled study of ketogenic, gluten-free breads comparing 100% almond flour (AF), 100% oat bran fiber (OB), and mixes (AOB, OBA), both trained panelists and consumers preferred breads with higher almond flour ratios (AF, AOB). Mechanically and sensorially, key differentiators were:

• Structure: AF and AOB had more open crumb (cells 1–4 mm²), whereas OB/OBA showed denser crumb with a higher proportion of <1 mm² cells. Average cell density was lower (more open) for AF (~13.2 cells/cm²) vs OB (~27.8 cells/cm²), signaling a softer bite and better aeration (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021) (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

• Texture over time: Almond-flour-containing breads became softer and less chewy with storage, while 100% OB increased in firmness—an advantage for shelf-life eating quality in AF-forward formulas (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021) (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

• Flavor trade-offs: Higher almond flour correlated with “eggy” notes; more oat bran fiber yielded “earthy” notes. Yet overall liking remained higher for AF-forward variants, implying room to optimize flavor systems while retaining the texture advantage (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021) (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

Strategically, this suggests competitors should bias R&D toward almond flour or almond-forward blends to maximize consumer acceptance in gluten-free/keto formats, and then finesse flavor through inclusions or natural flavors to balance “eggy” perception without sacrificing the open, soft crumb consumers prefer (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021) (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

Selected competitor moves and implications

Risk landscape and 2025 watchlist

• Tariff and trade policy shifts: Market watchers project fluctuating growth in 2025 tied to potential tariff changes under the newly elected U.S. administration—a direct or indirect margin and demand headwind. Competitors should scenario-plan for duty exposure, pricing corridors, and inventory buffers (Research and Markets, 2025) (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Supply chain and input costs: Almond price volatility remains the single largest variable in landed cost. Digitization, diversified sourcing, and flexible contracts will differentiate COGS performance (Research and Markets, 2025; Maximize Market Research, 2024) (Research and Markets, 2025; Maximize Market Research, 2024).

• Substitutes: Coconut flour, sunflower seed flour, and other alternative flours are price-competitive and can erode share if almond flour pricing outruns perceived functional/sensory benefits (Fortune Business Insights, n.d.) (Fortune Business Insights, n.d.).

• Allergen and regulatory: Continued retailer and co-manufacturer scrutiny around tree nut allergen controls heightens the value of validated reference materials (NIST RM 8404) and documented traceability—areas where leaders will gain audit advantages (Phillips et al., n.d.) (Phillips et al., n.d.).

• Channel mix: Supermarket dominance persists, but online acceleration in almond products suggests incremental marketing ROI in DTC and marketplaces for differentiated SKUs and bundles (SNS Insider, 2023) (SNS Insider, 2023).

My view: the decisive competitive moves for 2025–2027

Based on the evidence provided, the following moves are most likely to produce outperformance:

1. Operational scale and efficiency-first capacity

• Emulate Blue Diamond’s early investment in enclosed, cost-optimized lines—improving throughput, dust control, and hygiene while lowering unit costs that will cushion tariff and input shocks (Hamer, 2017) (Hamer, 2017).
• Pursue byproduct valorization (e.g., energy conversion, feed) to claw back costs and strengthen sustainability narratives valued by retailers and institutional buyers (Future Market Insights, n.d.) (Future Market Insights, n.d.).

2. Formulation strategy anchored in sensory science

• Bias NPD toward almond-flour-forward blends that deliver open crumb and softer texture, which trained panels and consumers prefer in gluten-free/keto bread analogs; optimize for flavor (reduce “eggy” perception) without sacrificing structure (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021) (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).
• Translate these insights beyond bread into muffins, mug cakes, and baking mixes where convenience amplifies the value proposition (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021) (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021).

3. QA, allergen control, and traceability as commercial moats

• Standardize against NIST RM 8404 in analytical workflows; codify supplier verification, lot traceability, and validation protocols to exceed customer audit expectations, unlocking co-manufacturing partnerships and private label opportunities (Phillips et al., n.d.) (Phillips et al., n.d.).

4. Portfolio and channel architecture tuned to shopper behavior

• Expand convenient, single-serve, and quick-prep almond-flour formats (e.g., mug cakes, pancake and brownie mixes) that align with supermarket dominance and rising online basket building (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021; SNS Insider, 2023) (Institute of Food Technologists, 2021; SNS Insider, 2023).
• Invest in digital content (recipes, macros, clean-label storytelling) to improve conversion and repeat on marketplaces where category discovery is high.

5. Risk management and commercial agility

• Build tariff scenarios into pricing ladders and customer contracts; create hedges through diversified almond sourcing and inventory positioning to minimize service disruptions (Research and Markets, 2025) (Research and Markets, 2025).
• Monitor substitute-price gaps; where almond premiums widen, defend with functional claims (texture, moisture retention, crumb openness) and application performance that cheaper alternatives struggle to match (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021; Fortune Business Insights, n.d.) (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021; Fortune Business Insights, n.d.).

Conclusion

The almond flour field is competitive and fragmented, but the pattern of winning moves is visible. Blue Diamond’s earlier capacity and efficiency investment created a durable cost-quality edge that it has leveraged into consumer products; brand specialists are capturing value through differentiated blends and strong channel presence. The most compelling “next move” playbook blends operational discipline (capacity, waste-to-value), evidence-based product design (almond-forward formulations for superior texture and acceptance), and elevated QA/compliance (NIST-referenced allergen controls) with omnichannel execution. Given 2025’s likely tariff and supply complexity, the combination of cost control, traceability credibility, and consumer-validated performance will separate leaders from those competing solely on price.

References

• Archive Market Research. (2025, June 5). Almond flour 2025–2033 overview: Trends, competitor dynamics, and opportunities. Archive Market Research. https://www.archivemarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-164013

• Fortune Business Insights. (n.d.). Almond flour market size, share industry & forecast, 2032. Fortune Business Insights. https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/almond-flour-market-101928

• Future Market Insights. (n.d.). Almond flour market size, share & industry forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Gillespie, R., & Ahlborn, G. (2021). Mechanical, sensory, and consumer evaluation of ketogenic, gluten-free breads. Food Science & Nutrition (via PubMed Central). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8194744/

• Hamer, M. (2017, August 15). Blue Diamond adds new production line. Agricultural Council of California. https://agcouncil.org/allied-members/

• Institute of Food Technologists. (2021, July). Oat milk mochi in five flavors; Almond flour baking mixes and cups; Wild tuna salad bowls. IFT Food Technology Magazine. https://www.ift.org/news-and-publications/food-technology-magazine/issues/2021/july/departments/new-products-oat-milk-mochi-almond-flour-wild-tuna-salad

• Market Research Future. (n.d.). Almond flour market size, share, trends, industry reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860

• Maximize Market Research. (2024). Almond flour market: Global industry analysis and forecast. Maximize Market Research. https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-almond-flour-market/111074/

• Phillips, M. M., Bunk, D. M., Green, A. B., & Yen, J. H. (n.d.). Value assignment of reference material 8404 almond flour for allergen detection (NIST SP 260-218). National Institute of Standards and Technology. https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/SpecialPublications/NIST.SP.260-218.pdf

• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 almond flour market report – Industry size, competition, trends and growth opportunities by region – Forecast by types and applications (2024–2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srsltid=AfmBOorzr24TvCOTKFa5rseCVdmLM1gKP_VckPWIsBiqGrNjH3h4so5D

• SNS Insider. (2023). Almond products market size, share & growth report 2023. SNS Insider. https://www.snsinsider.com/reports/almond-products-market-8511

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key competitive moves expected in the almond flour market by 2025?

The decisive competitive moves include capacity and efficiency upgrades, disciplined portfolio innovation towards clean-label products, enhanced allergen detection and traceability, and optimized channel mixes. Companies like Blue Diamond Growers are leading with early investments in processing efficiency, while brand specialists focus on product innovation.

How is Blue Diamond Growers positioning itself in the almond flour market?

Blue Diamond Growers has invested in an enclosed-conveyance production line to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. Additionally, they are expanding into consumer-ready products like almond-flour baking mixes, which align with current health trends, thereby strengthening their market presence.

What trends are driving demand for almond flour?

Demand for almond flour is driven by health-oriented eating, the gluten-free trend, and growing interest in keto and paleo diets. These trends are pushing almond flour into various applications, including baking and snacks, with the market projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8-9% from 2025 to 2035.

What challenges are almond flour manufacturers facing?

Manufacturers are grappling with input cost inflation, production variability due to drought, and tariff-policy uncertainties. These factors are constraining margins and complicating planning, especially as competition from cheaper substitutes like coconut and sunflower seed flours increases.

How significant is the online sales channel for almond flour?

Online sales are showing strong momentum, contributing to the overall growth of almond products. As of 2025, supermarkets account for about 65% of almond-product sales, but the rise of e-commerce is expected to enhance product velocity and consumer reach.

What role does allergen management play in the competitive landscape?

Allergen management is crucial for market players, as it serves as a quality and compliance moat. Utilizing validated reference materials like NIST RM 8404 for allergen detection can provide a competitive edge, enabling suppliers to meet stringent retailer and co-manufacturer requirements.

How are competitors differentiating their almond flour products?

Competitors are differentiating through specialty blends and innovative product formats, such as Bob’s Red Mill's Paleo Baking Flour. This approach not only enhances brand equity but also expands category penetration by appealing to health-conscious consumers seeking grain-free and low-carb options.