• The global almond flour market is projected to grow at an 8-9% CAGR, reaching between USD 2.15 billion and USD 2.69 billion by 2025, driven by increasing demand for gluten-free and low-carb products.
• North America holds the largest market share, supported by strong production and consumer trends, while the Asia-Pacific region is the fastest-growing market, particularly in China and India.
• The industry is fragmented, with key players like Blue Diamond Growers and Bob’s Red Mill leading, while smaller brands focus on niche markets like organic and specialty products.
• Supply chain risks, including agricultural volatility and food safety concerns, necessitate robust sourcing strategies and quality controls to maintain competitive advantage and protect margins.

Industry Structure

Almond Flour Industry Structure: Value Chain, Competition, Channels, and Outlook (2025)

Product: Almond Flour

Section: Competitive Landscape

Introduction and definition

Almond flour is milled from the edible kernel of Prunus dulcis, typically ground and sieved to a defined particle size. It is available as natural (with skins) and blanched (skins removed) flour, and is widely used in premium pastries and sweet goods such as French macarons, tarts, sponge cakes, and specialty cookies. Its absence of gluten-forming proteins makes it a go-to ingredient in gluten-free and keto-positioned baking, though it tends to yield denser, flatter bakes unless formulations are adjusted for its high fat and fiber content (American Society of Baking, n.d.).

Functionally, almond flour contributes structure via protein coagulation, moisture retention through fiber, higher batter/dough absorption, and a premium taste and mouthfeel. Compositionally, it is high in fat and protein with meaningful fiber and micronutrients; typical composition: 53% fat, 20% protein, 20% total carbohydrates (7% sugars), and 5–7% moisture. These nutritional properties underpin its use in “better-for-you” formulations, while also requiring attention to oxidative rancidity and food safety management (American Society of Baking, n.d.).

Market size and growth: what the numbers say

Published estimates for the almond flour market are not uniform because of different market boundaries (e.g., retail vs. B2B, inclusion of blends, valuation currency years). Triangulating across several 2024–2025 industry reports suggests a clear growth trajectory with mid–high single-digit CAGRs and North America as the largest region.

• Maximize Market Research (MMR) estimates a 2024 global market size of USD 1.44 billion, projecting USD 2.69 billion by 2032 (CAGR 8.1%) (Maximize Market Research, 2024).
• Future Market Insights (FMI) cites a 2025 market size of USD 2.15 billion and USD 4.88 billion by 2035 (CAGR ~8.6%) (Future Market Insights, 2025).
• Market Research Future (MRFR) shows a 2024 market size of USD 2.50 billion, projecting USD 6.19 billion by 2035 (CAGR 8.6%) (Market Research Future, 2025).

The spread reflects scope differences; still, the convergence around an 8–9% CAGR is notable. Reports also flag 2024–2025 as a period of fluctuating growth driven by tariffs, persistent supply-chain issues, and geopolitical uncertainty, with narrow margins amid robust demand—factors that favor well-capitalized, vertically integrated participants (Research and Markets, 2025).

Table 1. Selected market size estimates and outlook

(Sources: Maximize Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025)

Opinion: Based on the triangulated evidence, the most defensible near-term view is that the global almond flour market will grow at approximately 8–9% CAGR through 2032–2035, with 2024–2025 volatility tied to agricultural inputs, logistics, and trade conditions. This implies continued but uneven expansion, rewarding firms that can manage raw-material risk, product differentiation, and omnichannel distribution.

Industry value chain and processing

The almond flour value chain is structurally similar to other specialty ingredient categories but has distinct upstream sensitivities and midstream safety requirements:

• Upstream: orchards, primarily in California (U.S.) and parts of the Mediterranean and Australia, supply almonds. Post-harvest, nuts must be preserved and screened to be free of oxidative rancidity, insect damage, and biological contamination (notably Aspergillus and aflatoxins). Blanching/steam treatments can deliver ≈4-log reductions in pathogens such as Salmonella, forming a critical control step (American Society of Baking, n.d.).
• Midstream: processors mill almonds to specification (particle size) and produce natural vs. blanched flours. Packaging choices emphasize oxygen and light barriers to mitigate rancidity; shelf-life extension is a practical differentiator in B2B supply. Allergen management is mandatory.
• Downstream: brand owners and B2B customers (bakeries, snack makers) formulate into bakery/confectionery items; retail brands sell consumer packs; foodservice uses include gluten-free pastries and desserts. Almond hulls and other by-products are utilized for feed or valorized into biomass, supporting circular models and cost recovery (American Society of Baking, n.d.; Almond by-products review, 2021).

Table 2. Key value chain stages and risks

(Sources: American Society of Baking, n.d.; Almond by-products review, 2021)

Product segmentation and applications

Almond flour is primarily segmented by processing and functionality:

• Natural almond flour: milled with skins; higher fiber content; slightly darker color; common in rustic bakes and high-fiber applications.
• Blanched almond flour: skins removed; lighter color; smoother mouthfeel; preferred for macarons and delicate pastry where crumb color and smoothness matter.
• Ultrafine/“superfine” grades: engineered particle size for improved dispersion and structure in cakes and macarons.
• Adjacent category—almond pulp flour: derived from almond milk production by-product; a circular-economy variant with its own market dynamics (e.g., North America ≈38% revenue share in 2024 for almond pulp flour, ≈USD 163 million), though distinct from conventional almond flour (Growth Market Reports, 2023).

Functionally, almond flour dominates in bakery and confectionery, with use in specialty cookies, tarts, sponge cakes, macarons, and gluten-free batters. Its oil content and lack of gluten-forming proteins necessitate formulation tweaks (e.g., additional binders) to avoid density and spread issues (American Society of Baking, n.d.). Industry taxonomies commonly break out applications into bakery, confectionery, cosmetics, and “others,” with bakery/confectionery leading volumes (Maximize Market Research, 2024; Market Research Future, 2025).

Demand segmentation and channels

• End users: commercial (food manufacturers and bakeries) and household. Home baking surged post-2020 and remains structurally higher, supporting consumer-pack formats and recipe-led marketing (Market Research Future, 2025).
• Distribution: offline channels (grocery, supermarkets, specialty stores) remain the dominant route by value, though online is the fastest-growing, aided by DTC models, subscriptions, and e-commerce discovery. Specialty retail offers premium differentiation (organic, superfine, blanched) and nutrition claims; omnichannel strategies are becoming standard (Maximize Market Research, 2024; Research and Markets, 2025).

Regional structure

• North America: largest market share, driven by strong almond production base, gluten-free/keto adoption, premiumization, and home-baking trends. Foodservice adoption in cafes and dessert shops adds steady B2B demand. Offline retail is extensive, and online penetration is rising (Maximize Market Research, 2024).
• Europe: significant demand in Western Europe for clean-label and premium pastry applications, supported by pastry traditions and specialty retail formats (Maximize Market Research, 2024).
• Asia-Pacific: fastest growth, with China cited as the largest APAC market and India the fastest growing, driven by rising health awareness, e-commerce, and modern retail expansion (Market Research Future, 2025).
• Latin America, Middle East & Africa: smaller in absolute size but increasingly targeted by global brands via online channels and specialty retail, with emphasis on shelf-stable premium imports (Research and Markets, 2025).

Competitive landscape

The category is fragmented globally, with a cluster of well-established retail brands and ingredient suppliers in North America and Europe—and numerous SMEs occupying niche positions (organic, superfine, clean-label). While precise market shares are not consistently disclosed in public sources, the following companies recur across independent market analyses:

• Blue Diamond Growers (ingredient supplier and branded retail)
• Bob’s Red Mill Natural Foods (retail brand and B2B)
• King Arthur Baking Company (retail brand)
• Honeyville Inc. (B2B and retail)
• NOW Foods; Anthony’s Goods; WellBee’s; Nature’s Eats; Almond Pro (retail/DTC niches)
• Larger agri-ingredient platforms occasionally listed for almond products (e.g., Cargill), typically more active in broader nut ingredient portfolios than retail almond flour brands

Blue Diamond’s strategic moves illustrate evolving sustainability and operational models; for example, its partnership with Divert, Inc. to convert processing by-products to renewable energy while consolidating operations indicates both circular-economy ambition and asset optimization. Brand innovation continues at scale (e.g., new grain-free blends) as firms court keto, paleo, and gluten-free consumers (Future Market Insights, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025).

Table 3. Selected players and roles

(Sources: Future Market Insights, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025)

Regulatory and food safety considerations

• Allergen management: Almonds are major allergens; strict segregation, sanitation, and accurate labeling are mandatory to mitigate cross-contact and recall risks (American Society of Baking, n.d.).
• Mycotoxins: Aflatoxins from Aspergillus species require vigilance. Supplier audits, rapid testing, and validated processing are central to risk control (American Society of Baking, n.d.).
• Pathogen reduction: Almond blanching/steam pasteurization is a critical kill step to reduce Salmonella risk; process validation and HACCP documentation are standard (American Society of Baking, n.d.).
• Oxidative rancidity: High oil content makes packaging and shelf-life management a quality and brand protection imperative (American Society of Baking, n.d.).

Porter’s Five Forces: a structured view

• Supplier power: Moderate-to-high. Almond growing is geographically concentrated (notably California), and yields are sensitive to water availability and climate. Price volatility passes through to flour costs, strengthening supplier leverage in tight harvests (Research and Markets, 2025).
• Buyer power: Moderate. Large retailers and major food manufacturers can exert pricing pressure, but specialized functional requirements and allergen controls limit easy switching.
• Threat of new entrants: Moderate. Machinery capex and QA systems are not prohibitive for SMEs, but raw-material price exposure, certifications (e.g., GF, organic), and building retail distribution are meaningful barriers.
• Threat of substitutes: Moderate-to-high. Competing gluten-free flours (coconut, oat, rice, sorghum, tapioca) and other nut flours offer alternatives on cost, flavor, or function. Almond flour’s premium taste and fat-driven mouthfeel remain differentiators.
• Rivalry: High and increasing. The market is fragmented with sustained innovation in product grades (superfine, blanched), packaging, and omnichannel marketing. Price competition intensifies in online marketplaces; brands differentiate via quality specs, certifications, and content marketing (Research and Markets, 2025).

Trends shaping industry structure

• Health and diet alignment: Stable demand tailwinds from gluten-free, keto, and low-carb baking; growing consumer interest in clean-label, non-GMO, and organic varieties (Market Research Future, 2025).
• Omnichannel distribution: Offline remains dominant, but accelerated e-commerce adoption expands reach and enables DTC subscriptions. Influencer-driven recipe content and social discovery materially support household demand (Maximize Market Research, 2024; Research and Markets, 2025).
• Sustainability and circularity: Valorization of by-products (e.g., energy from processing waste; almond pulp flour as a distinct niche) enhances resource efficiency and brand ESG narratives (Future Market Insights, 2025; Growth Market Reports, 2023).
• Technology and operations: Some market analyses note increased use of digital tools and even AI in procurement, processing, and distribution planning to manage volatility, improve yields, and optimize working capital, especially relevant amid tight margins and variable demand (Research and Markets, 2025).

Risks and constraints

• Agricultural and climate risks: Water scarcity and climatic variability drive yield and price swings, with direct cost implications for flour processors and brands (Growth Market Reports, 2023).
• Trade and geopolitics: Tariff changes and logistics disruptions can alter landed costs and availability, complicating inventory planning and pricing; 2024–2025 singled out as particularly volatile by multiple analysts (Research and Markets, 2025).
• Food safety/allergen recall exposure: Stringent controls are necessary; lapses impose high reputational and financial costs (American Society of Baking, n.d.).
• Quality stability: Managing rancidity and shelf-life across long distribution chains is core to brand equity and customer retention in both retail and B2B channels (American Society of Baking, n.d.).

Strategic implications for participants

• Secure supply and diversify: Multi-origin sourcing where feasible, forward contracts, and inventory buffers can reduce raw-material volatility. Strategic partnerships with grower cooperatives (or partial vertical integration) can stabilize input quality and costs (Future Market Insights, 2025).
• Differentiate on quality and function: Invest in particle-size engineering (ultrafine grades), precise blanched/natural specifications, and validated kill steps; support claims (gluten-free certification, organic, non-GMO) to win shelf space and online rankings (American Society of Baking, n.d.).
• Lean into omnichannel: Maintain strong offline distribution while scaling e-commerce content, DTC bundles, and subscriptions. Recipe ecosystems, influencer partnerships, and educational content (formulation tips to counter “dense/flat” bakes) increase category conversion (Maximize Market Research, 2024).
• ESG and circularity as assets: Valorize by-products (e.g., almond pulp flour, energy recovery), adopt sustainable packaging, and publish traceability and water stewardship data to strengthen brand preference and retailer acceptance (Future Market Insights, 2025; Growth Market Reports, 2023).
• Operational excellence: Apply digital forecasting, QA automation, and shelf-life modeling to protect margins in a narrow-spread environment; ensure allergen and safety compliance is demonstrably best-in-class (Research and Markets, 2025).

Conclusion: a resilient, premium-leaning, yet supply-sensitive industry

The almond flour industry is structurally fragmented but consolidating around quality, safety, and omnichannel execution. North America remains the anchor market, while Asia-Pacific provides the growth delta. Despite short-term volatility from agricultural and trade factors, the medium-term outlook is robust: an 8–9% CAGR is supported by sustained consumer interest in gluten-free and low-carb baking, premium taste and mouthfeel advantages, and expanding online access.

My concrete view, given the evidence, is that competitive advantage over 2025–2032 will accrue to firms that simultaneously (1) de-risk supply via closer upstream ties and diversified sourcing, (2) differentiate through functional quality (ultrafine, blanched purity) and certifications, (3) execute true omnichannel models with strong content and community, and (4) embed credible ESG practices that turn by-products and packaging into brand assets. Those that treat almond flour as a commodity will be exposed to margin compression and quality risks; those that treat it as a premium, performance ingredient with a resilient supply chain and clear value proposition will capture outsized share of a growing, health-aligned category (American Society of Baking, n.d.; Maximize Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025; Research and Markets, 2025; Almond by-products review, 2021).

References

• American Society of Baking. (n.d.). Almond Flour | American Society of Baking. American Society of Baking. https://asbe.org/article/almond-flour/
• Future Market Insights. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market
• Growth Market Reports. (2023). Almond Pulp Flour Market Research Report 2023. Growth Market Reports. https://growthmarketreports.com/report/almond-pulp-flour-market
• Market Research Future. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Trends, Industry Reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860
• Maximize Market Research. (2024). Almond Flour Market: Global Industry Analysis and Forecast. Maximize Market Research. https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-almond-flour-market/111074/
• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 Almond Flour Market Report – Industry Size, Competition, Trends and Growth Opportunities by Region – Forecast by Types and Applications (2024–2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srsltid=AfmBOorG5B3jOb6o1OXQOTBCzjMdsq7JNlEIIMfEysI9hXpVVT0f9-Ci
• [Authors not listed]. (2021). Almond By-Products: Valorization for Sustainability and Competitiveness of the Industry. National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8394390/

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected market size for almond flour by 2025?

The almond flour market is projected to reach approximately USD 2.15 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of around 8.6% according to Future Market Insights.

How does the competitive landscape for almond flour look?

The almond flour market is fragmented, featuring a mix of well-established brands like Blue Diamond Growers and Bob’s Red Mill, alongside numerous SMEs focusing on niche markets such as organic and gluten-free products.

What are the key risks affecting the almond flour industry?

Key risks include agricultural and climate variability impacting supply, trade and geopolitical uncertainties affecting costs, and stringent food safety regulations that require robust allergen management and quality controls.

Which regions are driving growth in the almond flour market?

North America remains the largest market, driven by strong demand for gluten-free products, while the Asia-Pacific region is the fastest-growing market, particularly in China and India, due to rising health awareness and e-commerce expansion.

What are the main trends shaping the almond flour industry?

Trends include increasing consumer demand for gluten-free and low-carb options, a shift towards omnichannel distribution strategies, and a focus on sustainability and circular economy practices, such as valorizing almond by-products.

How does the almond flour value chain operate?

The almond flour value chain involves several stages: upstream almond cultivation, midstream processing and milling, and downstream distribution to both retail and B2B customers, with critical attention to quality and safety at each stage.

What are the implications of the competitive landscape for new entrants?

New entrants face moderate barriers due to the need for quality certifications and distribution networks, but opportunities exist in niche markets. Differentiation through product quality and effective marketing strategies will be crucial for success.