• Almond flour prices are projected to be 6–12% higher in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by a rebound in almond kernel prices and reduced California acreage, with ex-factory prices expected to stabilize between $3.95–$4.50/lb.

• Global demand for almond flour is on the rise, with multiple market trackers forecasting mid-to-high single-digit CAGRs through the early 2030s, supporting price resilience even if raw almond costs fluctuate.

• Key risks include weather conditions during bloom, supply normalization post-orchard removals, and international trade dynamics, particularly with India and Europe, which could impact pricing volatility.

• Buyers are advised to hedge against potential price increases by layering contracts and maintaining flexibility in sourcing to capitalize on market fluctuations and mitigate risks associated with supply and demand changes.

Almond Flour Price Outlook & Scenarios (2025–2027)

Executive summary

• Opinion and headline outlook: Almond flour prices are likely to be moderately higher on average in 2025 versus 2024, then stabilize within a relatively narrow band through 2026–2027. The key driver is the upstream rebound in almond kernel prices following a multi-year oversupply cycle, intersecting with the first decline in California bearing acreage in decades, a recovering export environment (notably India), and ongoing weather and trade uncertainties. In a base case, we expect almond flour ex-factory prices to run roughly 6–12% above 2024 averages in 2025, with upside risk if bloom/weather further cap the 2025 crop and downside risk if a strong bloom and faster export normalization unlock additional supply. Kernel price volatility remains the dominant variable for flour pricing, with a high pass-through into flour costs due to limited processing substitution options (author’s analysis). Recent reporting confirms kernel prices rebounded above $2.40/lb in 2024 from sub-$2/lb lows in late 2022/early 2023, while Rabobank anticipated stabilization around then-current levels as exports improved and India’s tariff burden eased, all of which underpin a firmer almond flour cost base into 2025 (KVPR, 2024).

• Demand: Almond flour demand continues to expand globally amid gluten-free, low-carb, and plant-forward product growth, with multiple independent market trackers projecting mid-to-high single digit CAGRs to the early 2030s, supporting price resilience even if raw almond costs soften episodically (Research and Markets, 2024; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Risks: Weather at bloom/pollination, California supply normalization after orchard removals, shipping/commitment cadence, and tariff/FX developments—especially in India and Europe—remain the most salient price risks. Broker commentary in early 2025 notes higher prices amid tight supply and weather uncertainty, but also flags lagging commitments and the potential for prices to soften if bloom exceeds expectations or uncommitted inventory rises (Manolakaki, 2025).

Market backdrop: What changed upstream and why it matters for flour

• Supply whiplash: California bearing acreage approximately tripled over 30 years to more than 1.3 million acres, turbocharging almond supply and, at times, overwhelming demand—especially during pandemic-era logistics snarls that stranded shipments and swelled carryout. That glut pushed wholesale prices to 20‑year lows by late 2022/early 2023, undercutting grower economics (KVPR, 2024). Industry data up to 2022/23 show supply up 37% in two years into a 3.1 billion lb record, with shipments lagging despite long-run demand growth around 3% annually—textbook conditions for a price correction (INC Academia, 2022).

• Inflection in 2024: Bearing acreage contracted for the first time in decades, aiding a price rebound above $2.40/lb in 2024 (still well below the ~$4/lb peak in 2014). Rabobank foresaw average prices stabilizing near current levels over ~12 months on rising exports and lower Indian tariffs—both supportive of kernel and derivative (flour) prices in 2025 (KVPR, 2024).

• Near-term 2025 dynamics: Industry brokers report price gains into early 2025 amid tighter supply and weather risks at bloom; nonetheless, they warn that lagging commitments and uncommitted inventory could pressure prices lower if bloom proves strong or if export demand underperforms, highlighting both the upside and downside tails in the next 6–12 months (Manolakaki, 2025).

• Structural demand supports: Even during surplus, innovation (snacks, functional foods, non-dairy) and the U.S. snacking category remained favorable for almond usage, with India’s demand on a positive trajectory and Europe/Middle East maintaining strong affinities, albeit sensitive to FX and geopolitical factors. The upshot: a broader, more diversified demand base than a decade ago, which dampens prolonged downside risk once logistics normalize (INC Academia, 2022).

How upstream kernels map to almond flour prices

• Cost logic: Almond flour is produced from blanched or natural almonds via skin removal (optional), milling, and sifting. The direct raw material cost (almond kernels) dominates the cost stack. A simple illustrative model shows that:

  • Each $0.10/lb move in kernel cost generally shifts ex-factory almond flour cost by roughly $0.11–$0.13/lb after accounting for blanching/sifting yield losses (often 5–10%), plus proportional gross margin pass-through (author’s calculations).
  • Processing, packaging, and overhead commonly add $0.70–$1.10/lb, depending on scale, spec (natural vs blanched), QA/FSMA compliance, and energy and labor inputs (author’s calculations).
  • Freight, trade, and FX can further swing delivered prices by $0.10–$0.30/lb, particularly for export lanes (author’s calculations).

• Implication: Given the rebound and potential stabilization in kernel prices around 2024 levels (above $2.40/lb), 2025 almond flour pricing starts from a higher floor than 2023, and is most likely to track kernel volatility rather than diverge—unless processors materially change spec mix, shift to higher-yield processes, or compress margins (which is less likely if demand remains firm) (KVPR, 2024).

Demand lens for almond flour specifically

Across multiple trackers, almond flour’s global market is growing in the mid-to-high single digits to low double digits CAGR range through 2030–2035. While methodologies vary, consensus direction is robust demand growth:

Triangulating these benchmarks, we infer sustained volume growth and mix expansion into bakery and snacks, with organic/clean-label niches adding premium layers. This demand posture supports a floor under almond flour prices, even if kernels soften intermittently, by allowing processors to preserve margin through mix/pricing in higher-value applications.

Price scenarios: 2025–2027 ex-factory (illustrative)

We construct three scenarios for U.S. ex-factory almond flour prices, keyed to kernel price trajectories and typical cost pass-through. These are ranges for standard specifications (natural or blanched fine-milled, bulk-packed), not retail prices. Assumptions are indicated below.

Assumptions and method

• Raw cost = kernel price × (1 + yield loss factor); e.g., at $2.60 kernel and 8% loss, raw input ~ $2.81/lb.
• Ex-factory price = (raw cost + processing/pack) × (1 + margin%).
• Ranges reflect spec differences (blanched vs natural), scale, energy, and QA costs; they exclude freight and duties.
• Pass-through sensitivity: ±$0.10/lb in kernels changes ex-factory flour by roughly $0.11–$0.13/lb as a first-order effect (author’s calculations).

Why these bands are plausible

• Kernel rebound to >$2.40 in 2024 and industry commentary of further firmness into 2025 underpin the base-case raw cost. Acreage contraction, orchard removals, and weather uncertainty cap the downside near term (KVPR, 2024; Manolakaki, 2025).
• Yet, lagging commitments and potential for stronger-than-expected bloom create a non-trivial bear tail. If realized, kernel prices could retrace, pushing flour ex-factory down toward the mid‑$3s/lb range (author’s analysis). The industry has lived through multi-year oversupply; a quick return is less likely given acreage trends but cannot be dismissed (INC Academia, 2022).
• Demand strength in gluten-free and low-carb bakery offers margin support in a bull or base scenario, mitigating the need for processors to discount aggressively if raw costs rise (Persistence Market Research, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

Outlook nuances by specification and geography

• Blanched vs natural: Blanched flour (skins removed) typically carries higher processing cost and a slightly larger yield loss than natural flour. Accordingly, blanched flour sits nearer the top of each scenario band, with a typical premium of ~$0.15–$0.30/lb ex-factory over natural for comparable granulations (author’s analysis). Segment leadership by blanched in baking applications is consistently noted in market breakdowns (Future Market Insights, 2025; Research and Markets, 2024).

• Regional delivered prices: EU buyers face FX risk and varying logistics costs. A stronger USD vs EUR increases local-currency cost and can delay commitments; conversely, USD softness or easing freight can narrow landed premiums. The Middle East and India remain structurally strong demand sinks for almonds; India’s tariff relief supports volume elasticity and price stability in kernels and derivatives, aiding the base-case scenario for almond flour (KVPR, 2024; INC Academia, 2022).

Sensitivity and triggers to monitor

• Bloom/pollination and weather: Cold/rain during bloom depresses yields and can tighten supply—bullish for prices. Early 2025 weather was flagged as a risk factor, warranting close tracking of set and subsequent crop forecasts (Manolakaki, 2025).

• Acreage and removals: Another year of net removals would support the floor under kernel prices; conversely, a rebound in new plantings would nudge the 2–3 year outlook more bearish. The 2024 acreage decline was the first in decades and materially contributed to the price inflection (KVPR, 2024).

• Export commitments and carryout: “Lagging commitments” and “growing uncommitted inventory” signal potential near-term softness if supply surprises to the upside; watching monthly shipment reports and commitment ratios will sharpen the price read for 2H25 (Manolakaki, 2025).

• Trade/tariffs and logistics: Any reversal of Indian tariff relief, renewed port congestion, or increased tariffs in large markets would add bearish or bullish edges depending on direction. Europe’s FX and broader commodity inputs also matter for end-product price elasticity (KVPR, 2024; INC Academia, 2022).

Procurement recommendations (2025–2026)

1. Hedge a base/bull glidepath: Given asymmetry toward modest firmness in 2025, buyers should consider layering contracts across H1–H2 2025 at fixed or index-linked terms with collars that cap upside. Prioritize suppliers with blanching and sifting efficiencies to reduce yield loss if blanched spec is critical (author’s analysis).

2. Build optionality: Include swap rights between natural and blanched flour or granulation flexibility where product formulations allow; these options often cost less than a straight price hedge but add meaningful budget control (author’s analysis).

3. Diversify lanes: For non-U.S. delivery, split volumes across U.S. West Coast ports and alternative lanes to mitigate localized disruptions. Align FX and freight hedges with shipment windows to reduce delivered-cost variance (author’s analysis).

4. Monitor commitments and bloom: Time larger spot buys after key commitment/bloom updates to exploit any dips from positive crop surprises; conversely, be prepared to accelerate commitments if weather risk escalates bloom-to-set (author’s analysis; Manolakaki, 2025).

Conclusion

On balance, almond flour prices in 2025 are set to be modestly higher than 2024, primarily reflecting a structurally firmer almond kernel market after acreage contraction, improved export prospects (notably India), and persistent weather and trade uncertainties. Our base-case ex-factory price band of about $3.95–$4.50/lb incorporates these supports while acknowledging downside risk if bloom/commitments over-deliver; a bull case can reach the high $4s to low $5s on weather or trade shocks, and a bear case resides in the mid-$3s if supply improves faster than expected. Demand fundamentals in gluten-free and low-carb bakery and snacks continue to underpin pricing power and margin protection across the forecast horizon. Practically, buyers should stage coverage and embed optionality while tracking bloom, commitments, and tariff/FX developments closely to tactically exploit dips or cap upside in a market transitioning from glut to balance (KVPR, 2024; INC Academia, 2022; Manolakaki, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025; Research and Markets, 2024).

References

• KVPR. (2024, July 11). Farming is a gamble in California’s almond boom-and-bust. Growers are hoping for a rebound. KVPR. https://www.kvpr.org/business-economy/2024-07-11/farming-is-a-gamble-in-californias-almond-boom-and-bust-growers-are-hoping-for-a-rebound

• INC Academia. (2022). 3. Case study: Almonds California – INC Academia. International Nut & Dried Fruit Council. https://academia.nutfruit.org/lesson/3-case-study-almonds-california-2/

• Manolakaki, J. (2025, February 19). Almond market update: Prices rise amid tight supply and weather uncertainty in 2025. Cardassilaris Family — Wholesale Nuts, Dried Fruits & Seeds Broker. https://www.cardassilaris.com/news/almond-market-update-prices-rise-amid-tight-supply-and-weather-uncertainty-in-2025

• Persistence Market Research. (2025). Almond flour market size, share & growth analysis, 2032. Persistence Market Research. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/almond-flour-market.asp

• Future Market Insights. (2025, July 4). Almond flour market size, share, and forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Research and Markets. (2024, August 28). Almond flour market—Global blanched, natural, conventional, organic forecast 2024–2030 [Press release via Yahoo Finance]. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almond-flour-market-global-blanched-110600745.html

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected price increase for almond flour in 2025 compared to 2024?

Almond flour prices are projected to be approximately 6–12% higher in 2025 compared to 2024 averages. This increase is largely driven by a rebound in almond kernel prices, which are expected to stabilize around $2.50–$2.70/lb.

What factors could influence almond flour prices in the next few years?

Key factors influencing almond flour prices include almond kernel price volatility, weather conditions during bloom, and export demand, particularly from India. Additionally, changes in California's almond acreage and potential tariff impacts will also play significant roles.

How do almond kernel prices affect almond flour pricing?

Almond flour pricing is closely tied to almond kernel prices, with each $0.10/lb change in kernel cost typically resulting in a $0.11–$0.13/lb shift in almond flour prices. Given the current kernel price rebound above $2.40/lb, almond flour pricing is expected to follow suit.

What are the projected price scenarios for almond flour from 2025 to 2027?

Three scenarios for almond flour prices are outlined: a bull case of $4.60–$5.10/lb, a base case of $3.95–$4.50/lb, and a bear case of $3.35–$3.90/lb. These scenarios depend on almond kernel prices, processing costs, and market demand dynamics.

What is the demand outlook for almond flour in the coming years?

The global demand for almond flour is expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit CAGR through the early 2030s. This growth is driven by trends in gluten-free, low-carb, and plant-forward diets, which support price resilience.

How do processing costs impact almond flour pricing?

Processing costs, which typically add $0.70–$1.10/lb to almond flour prices, are influenced by factors such as scale, quality assurance, and energy inputs. These costs, combined with raw material prices, determine the final ex-factory price of almond flour.

What risks should stakeholders monitor regarding almond flour pricing?

Stakeholders should keep an eye on weather conditions during bloom, changes in California's almond acreage, and export commitments. Additionally, fluctuations in tariffs and foreign exchange rates, especially with India and Europe, pose significant risks to pricing stability.