• The global almond flour market is projected to reach approximately USD 2.1 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5-8.6% expected through 2035, driven by increasing demand for gluten-free and clean-label products in baking and foodservice sectors.

• The United States dominates almond exports, accounting for 68.3% of global export value in 2022, followed by Spain and Australia, indicating that these regions will be critical supply sources for almond flour production and trade.

• Tariff structures significantly impact trade viability; for instance, Algeria imposes a 30% duty on almond flour, which may hinder imports, while Angola's 10% duty plus VAT allows for more competitive pricing, highlighting the importance of understanding local tax regimes for market entry strategies.

• Recent U.S. almond shipment data indicates resilience in export volumes, particularly to India and the Middle East, suggesting strong demand for almond flour in these regions, while domestic shipment declines may create opportunities for increased processing and export activities.

Import & Export Statistics

Product: Almond Flour

Section: Trade & Logistics

Almond flour import & export statistics: 2025 market and trade brief

Executive summary

Almond flour—classified in customs systems under HS 1106.30 (flour, meal, or powder of almonds)—is a fast-growing niche within the global nut value chain. While public, country-level customs statistics for almond flour are less visible than those for in-shell or shelled almonds, convergent evidence from tariff schedules, industry shipment reports, and syndicated market research indicates a mid-to-high single-digit growth trajectory for cross-border trade, anchored by expanding gluten-free and clean-label demand in baking and foodservice. The global almond flour market is estimated around USD 2.1 billion in 2025, with forecasts ranging from approximately USD 2.7 billion by 2031 to nearly USD 4.9 billion by 2035, a 7.5–8.6 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) depending on methodology and time horizon (Markets and Data, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025; Data Bridge Market Research, n.d.). Cross-border trade conditions are materially shaped by tariffs and taxes applied to HS 1106.30; for example, Algeria applies a 30 percent duty plus VAT and other para-tariffs on almond flour (CIF basis), while Angola’s duty is 10 percent but with additional fees and a 14 percent VAT, underscoring how fiscal regimes can determine landed costs and import viability (Almond Board of California, 2024).

Given that the almond kernel trade is highly concentrated—dominated by the United States, Spain, and Australia—supply for almond flour manufacturing and export mirrors this concentration. In 2022, the United States accounted for 68.3 percent of global almond export value, with Spain and Australia contributing a further 9.4 and 8.8 percent, respectively, highlighting an upstream supply base that underpins processed products such as almond flour (Tendata, 2024). Production data are consistent with this picture: U.S. orchards lead global output by a wide margin, followed by Australia and Spain, creating a natural pipeline for primary processing and downstream almond-ingredient trade streams like flour (Wikipedia, 2024).

Method and scope

This brief synthesizes:

• (a) the most recent applied tariff and import regime details for almond flour (HS 1106.30) from the Almond Board of California’s June 2024 compilation,
• (b) current-season U.S. almond shipment trends that influence raw material availability and pricing for processors, drawn from almond industry trade reporting in 2025,
• (c) global export concentration for almonds as a proxy for likely origins of almond flour, and
• (d) multi-provider market size and growth estimates for almond flour that frame the magnitude of import/export flows.

Where sources capture total almonds rather than almond flour, this brief explicitly notes the distinction and uses those data as contextual indicators only (Almond Board of California, 2024; Mundus Agri, 2025; Bösch Boden Spies, 2025; Tendata, 2024; Markets and Data, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025; Data Bridge Market Research, n.d.; Wikipedia, 2024).

Product definition and HS classification

• Almond flour, meal, or powder is classified under HS 1106.30 globally. This is distinct from:
  • In-shell almonds (HS 0802.11)
  • Shelled almonds (HS 0802.12)
  • Prepared/preserved almond products (HS 2008.19)
  • Almond paste (HS 2007.99 or HS 1704.90)

The HS 1106.30 classification is critical for importers/exporters tracking duty rates, VAT assessment basis, and non-tariff measures in customs schedules (Almond Board of California, 2024).

Global market size and growth for almond flour

Multiple reputable market-intelligence publishers now track almond flour as a stand-alone category. Their estimates differ modestly due to scope and methodology (base year, channel coverage, and mix of retail/industry use). A synthesis of their latest published figures appears below.

Table 1. Almond flour market size and growth: cross-source comparison

My assessment is that these independent trajectories triangulate on a robust mid-to-high single digit CAGR for almond flour over the next decade, with a plausible 2025 market value close to USD 2.0–2.2 billion. The higher absolute values in the 2032–2035 endpoint reflect longer compounding periods and somewhat broader scope in certain reports. For trade planners, this means that both import demand and export opportunities are expected to expand steadily—especially in bakery, snacks, and foodservice channels where almond flour’s functional and clean-label attributes are prized (Markets and Data, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025; Data Bridge Market Research, n.d.).

Upstream supply concentration and implications for almond flour trade

The almond trade and production base are highly concentrated:

• Top almond exporters by value in 2022 (all almond products) were the United States (USD 4.5B; 68.3%), Spain (USD 618M; 9.4%), and Australia (USD 580M; 8.8%), with Türkiye and the Netherlands rounding out the top five. Collectively, the top five exporters accounted for 90.4% of global almond export value, underscoring supply concentration (Tendata, 2024).
• Production data (with-shell basis) shows the United States as the dominant producer, followed by Australia and Spain—again mirroring the export hierarchy and informing where almond flour processing capacity is most likely to scale for export supply chains (Wikipedia, 2024).

Because almond flour is a downstream processed product drawing from shelled almond kernels, exporters of almond flour are highly likely to be located in, or closely tied to, these three supply hubs. From a risk perspective, this concentration exposes almond flour trade to region-specific agronomic shocks (e.g., weather in California or Australia) and logistics constraints; conversely, it concentrates quality systems and scale economies that can support competitive export pricing.

Recent shipment indicators from the U.S. almond industry (context for flour trade)

Though not specific to HS 1106.30, current-season U.S. almond shipment data provide a useful proxy for raw material availability and cost dynamics affecting almond flour exporters:

• In April 2025, total U.S. almond shipments were 241.1 million lbs, with export shipments at a record 187.8 million lbs (+6% YoY). Year-to-date shipments of just over 2.0 billion lbs were down 1.4% vs the prior season, reflecting domestic softness even as exports hold up (Bösch Boden Spies, 2025).
• In the 2024/25 season, grand total shipments dipped by nearly 2%, driven by an 8% decline in domestic shipments; exports were roughly flat overall. India stood out, up ~6% YoY and now accounting for 21% of U.S. almond exports, while Spain saw a ~12% decline. Europe overall was +1%, the Middle East +5%, with Türkiye +7% (Mundus Agri, 2025).

Table 2. Selected U.S. almond export destinations (’000 lbs), 2023/24 vs 2024/25

Source: Almond Board shipments via industry reporting (Mundus Agri, 2025).

These patterns suggest that raw material availability for flour processors is sufficient (exports resilient), with demand strength concentrated in South Asia and parts of the Middle East. The relative softness in Spain—a major almond re-exporter and processor—could imply more attractive sourcing or processing spreads elsewhere in Europe. While these data do not isolate almond flour, they influence kernel prices and, by extension, the export price competitiveness of almond flour.

Tariff and tax environment for almond flour (HS 1106.30)

The most actionable, comparable cross-country information provided relates to applied tariffs, VAT, and import documentation. These directly determine the landed cost of almond flour imports and therefore the viability of trade flows. The Almond Board of California’s June 2024 compilation provides a country-by-country snapshot. Two examples illustrate the range:

Table 3. Applied duties and taxes for almond flour (HS 1106.30): Example markets

Notes:

• The ABC tariff chart also catalogs non-tariff measures in key markets (e.g., facility and product registration with Chinese GACC for almond products), which can be equally determinative for importers even when tariff rates are moderate (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Duty and VAT assessments commonly use CIF as the customs value, with VAT applied on the duty-paid value; these calculation bases substantially affect landed prices and therefore import demand elasticity.

Trade interpretation

• High nominal duty markets (e.g., Algeria’s 30% on HS 1106.30) often dampen formal almond flour imports, especially where additional para-tariffs and taxes raise effective rates. Conversely, moderate nominal duty markets with significant VAT but predictable administration (e.g., Angola’s 10% duty plus VAT and minor fees) can sustain steady import flows when demand is present (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Non-tariff measures (e.g., product/facility registration, phytosanitary certificates, conformity certificates for prepared products) impose lead times and compliance costs that can influence exporter selection and supply chain design—critical considerations for almond flour traded as a food ingredient (Almond Board of California, 2024).

Demand geography and segment dynamics for almond flour

Market research coverage indicates:

• Applications: Baking is the dominant end-use by share (near 59% in 2025 per one source), reflecting almond flour’s functional fit in gluten-free and premium bakery segments. This biases import demand towards regions with vibrant industrial and artisanal bakery sectors (Future Market Insights, 2025).
• Form: Blanched almond flour accounts for roughly two-thirds of volume and value in 2025 across tracked channels, consistent with product specifications demanded by bakery and confectionery customers (Future Market Insights, 2025).
• Regions: All sources identify North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific as the core consumption regions, with APAC (notably India, China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN) offering the fastest growth lanes. While not all import markets for almond flour are tariff-friendly, rapid downstream product innovation and e-commerce/retail availability are expanding cross-border sourcing in APAC (Markets and Data, 2024; Data Bridge Market Research, n.d.).

Contextual linkage to almonds trade

• The alignment of strong U.S. almond exports to India and the Middle East with rising almond flour adoption suggests that, over time, more downstream processing may either locate near demand centers (to manage tariffs and shelf-life) or continue to export finished almond flour from established processors in the U.S., Spain, and Australia where quality control and certifications are embedded. Either path implies increasing cross-border flows of HS 1106.30 as the category matures (Mundus Agri, 2025; Tendata, 2024).

Risks and constraints to import/export growth

• Tariff volatility and policy: Some markets have implemented temporary safeguard duties and special taxes on processed nuts in recent years (e.g., roasted almonds and pastes), signaling a policy environment that can shift on short notice. Almond flour, as a processed ingredient, could face similar measures, requiring vigilant monitoring by exporters and importers (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Trade tensions and retaliatory measures: Trade reporting notes that retaliatory tariffs and broader tariff policy have periodically strained almond trade flows—a macro risk that can spill over to almond flour shipments depending on the bilateral context (Mundus Agri, 2025).
• Logistics and domestic demand shifts: The 2024/25 season saw U.S. domestic almond shipments fall even as exports held steady; logistics bottlenecks or currency swings could alter price differentials and export competitiveness for processed forms like flour (Bösch Boden Spies, 2025).

My view and outlook

Based on the convergent evidence presented, my view is that almond flour import and export volumes will continue to expand at a mid-to-high single-digit pace through the early 2030s, led by bakery use and blanched product formats. The most credible near-term indicators of trade momentum are:

1. almond kernel export strength into South Asia and the Middle East (with India now at roughly one-fifth of U.S. almond exports), and
2. the tariff and VAT regimes for HS 1106.30 in target import markets.

Where nominal duties are at or below 10–15 percent, and where VAT systems are predictable, sustained import growth is likely; markets applying 30 percent+ duties and layered para-tariffs are more prone to substitution or local processing strategies unless mitigated by trade agreements or strong income growth.

Critically, exporters and importers should prioritize compliance readiness for non-tariff measures (e.g., GACC registration where applicable), and model landed-cost scenarios using the correct bases (CIF for customs value; duty-paid value for VAT in many markets). Given the concentrated supply base, continuing transparency on shipment trends and orchard conditions in the U.S., Australia, and Spain will remain essential for forecasting price and availability for almond flour exporters.

Data limitations

The sources provided include high-quality tariff documentation, current shipment indicators for total almonds, and multiple independent market size estimates for almond flour. However, they do not furnish country-level, bilateral customs statistics for HS 1106.30. For precise import/export volume and value by corridor, stakeholders should consult national customs releases or international databases (e.g., UN Comtrade) filtered to HS 1106.30. Within the scope of the present dataset, the tariff and market-size evidence remain the most reliable, actionable proxies for almond flour trade statistics in 2025.

References

• Almond Board of California. (2024, June 26). Summary of applied tariffs and other trade measures applicable to U.S. almonds. Almond Board of California. https://www.almonds.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/ABC%20Tariff%20Chart%20June%202024.pdf

• Bösch Boden Spies. (2025, May). New almond market update May 2025. Bösch Boden Spies. https://www.boeschbodenspies.com/en/news/almond-market-update-may-2025/

• Data Bridge Market Research. (n.d.). Almond flour market – Global market – Industry trends and forecast to 2029. Data Bridge Market Research. https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-almond-flour-market

• Future Market Insights. (2025, July 4). Almond flour market size, share & industry forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Markets and Data. (2024, May). Almond flour market size, share, demand & forecast report 2031. Markets and Data. https://www.marketsanddata.com/industry-reports/almond-flour-market

• Mundus Agri. (2025). Almonds: Diverging export market trends. Mundus Agri. https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/almonds-diverging-export-market-trends.n35525.html

• Tendata. (2024, June 26). Top almond exports by country. Tendata. https://www.tendata.com/blogs/insight/5859.html

• Wikipedia contributors. (2024). Almond. Wikipedia. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almond

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected market size for almond flour in 2025?

The global almond flour market is estimated to reach approximately USD 2.1 billion in 2025, with forecasts suggesting growth to around USD 2.7 billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5–8.6 percent.

Which countries are the largest exporters of almond flour?

In 2022, the United States dominated the almond export market, accounting for 68.3 percent of global almond export value, followed by Spain at 9.4 percent and Australia at 8.8 percent. This concentration indicates that almond flour exports are likely to be sourced from these key players.

How do tariffs impact the import of almond flour?

Tariffs significantly influence the landed cost of almond flour. For instance, Algeria imposes a 30 percent duty plus VAT on almond flour, which can deter imports, while Angola has a lower 10 percent duty, making it more viable for trade.

What are the current trends in U.S. almond shipments?

In April 2025, U.S. almond shipments totaled 241.1 million lbs, with exports reaching a record 187.8 million lbs, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase. However, year-to-date shipments were down 1.4% compared to the previous season, indicating mixed domestic and export demand.

What are the main applications for almond flour?

Baking is the primary application for almond flour, accounting for nearly 59% of its use in 2025. This strong demand is driven by the increasing popularity of gluten-free and premium bakery products.

How does the concentration of almond production affect trade?

The high concentration of almond production in the U.S., Spain, and Australia creates a reliable supply chain for almond flour. However, it also poses risks, as any agronomic shocks in these regions could impact the availability and pricing of almond flour.

What are the implications of non-tariff measures on almond flour trade?

Non-tariff measures, such as product registration and compliance certifications, can introduce delays and additional costs for exporters. These requirements are critical for almond flour, as they can affect supply chain design and market access in various countries.