• The EU imposes an 8.3% MFN duty on almond flour, the most significant stable tariff for U.S. exporters, while Australia, Bahrain, and Canada offer 0% duty access, making them priority markets for export strategies.
• Emerging markets like Bangladesh and Brazil present high cumulative taxes that can significantly inflate landed costs, despite moderate headline duties of 25% and 9%, respectively, necessitating careful cost management.
• China remains a high-risk market due to volatile tariffs and complex regulatory requirements; exporters should hedge against potential tariff increases and maintain flexible contract terms to mitigate risks.
• Overall, exporters should focus on structuring pricing to account for duties and indirect taxes, optimizing logistics to minimize costs, and closely monitoring trade policy changes to safeguard margins and market share.

Tariffs & Trade Policies

Product: Almond Flour
Section: Trade & Logistics

Executive summary

Almond flour (HS 1106.30) sits at the intersection of two powerful forces in 2025: a stable, rules-based tariff environment in many key destination markets, and a volatile, retaliation-prone trade policy cycle affecting several large economies. Based on the most recent official tariff schedules and trade updates, my view is that the European Union’s 8.3% MFN duty on almond flour is the most significant and predictable structural tariff facing U.S. exporters among mature markets, while Australia, Canada, and Bahrain remain highly favorable. Conversely, South Asian and selected emerging markets (e.g., Bangladesh, Brazil) impose burdensome cumulative taxes and fees that can lift landed costs dramatically despite moderate headline duties. Overlaying this baseline, U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs and subsequent partner-country responses in 2025 increase policy risk—especially in China, where tariff waivers on raw almonds remain discretionary and where facility/product registration requirements add compliance friction. Net-net, near-term strategy should prioritize FTA-based markets and EU buyers, price-in EU duty/VAT mechanics, and treat China as a high-opportunity but high-volatility channel requiring hedging and regulatory readiness. Exporters should also actively manage valuation bases (CIF vs. FOB), documentation, and local indirect taxes to protect margins and avoid avoidable costs. (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2025a; Almond Board of California, 2025b)

Scope and HS codes

• Almond flour, meal, or powder: HS 1106.30 (focus of this report)
• For context on alternative almond products often traded together:
  • In-shell almonds: HS 0802.11
  • Shelled almonds: HS 0802.12
  • Prepared/preserved almonds: HS 2008.19
  • Almond paste: HS 2007.99 or HS 1704.90 (Almond Board of California, 2024)

Current tariff snapshot for almond flour (HS 1106.30)

The table below summarizes applied tariffs, key indirect taxes, valuation bases, and principal import documentation in representative markets using the latest consolidated tariff chart and official notes.

Notes

• EU MFN duty for HS 1106.30 is harmonized at 8.3% across Member States; VAT varies nationally (10% in Austria vs. 6% in Belgium in the cited examples) (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2023).
• Australia’s non-tariff costs (entry fees and GST) matter operationally even when headline duty is zero. While Australia’s phytosanitary measures primarily target raw almonds (cold treatment or fumigation), coordination with the customs broker remains prudent to prevent holds for mixed shipments and to confirm documentation for processed products (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Bangladesh and Brazil demonstrate how cumulative indirect taxes and fees can dominate landed costs even when ad valorem duty appears moderate (25% in Bangladesh; 9% in Brazil) (Almond Board of California, 2024).

Documentation and non-tariff measures

• China: Certificate of origin, General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) facility and product registration, and a framework of retaliatory tariffs apply; China’s regulatory layer is among the most demanding for nut products. While ABC updates emphasize tariff waivers for raw almonds, exporters of processed products (e.g., flour) should anticipate continued registration, labeling, and potential tariff exposure as policy evolves (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Phytosanitary certificates: Required widely, though the intensity of sanitary/phytosanitary (SPS) treatment varies by product form; raw almonds face the strictest regimes (e.g., Australia), but processed powders can still be scrutinized for contaminants and compliance with food standards (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Valuation bases matter:
  • CIF vs. FOB: Many markets calculate duty on CIF and apply VAT on the duty-paid value (EU, Bangladesh, Brazil). Australia calculates customs value on FOB, but GST on CIF (Almond Board of California, 2024).
  • Ancillary fees (e.g., SISCOMEX in Brazil) are flat, per-item costs that disadvantage fragmented entries; consolidation can lower per-unit cost (Almond Board of California, 2024).

What changed in 2025: reciprocal tariffs and retaliation

Trade policy became more unstable in 2025. The U.S. announced across-the-board 10% tariffs on imports (with higher, country-specific rates for about 60 countries), with implementation beginning April 5 for the 10% measure and country-specific duties initially paused 90 days (except China). Several partners responded or signaled responses (Almond Board of California, 2025b).

• China: Announced an additional 34% tariff on U.S. imports effective April 10, with subsequent tit-for-tat increases discussed. The U.S. raised its reciprocal duty to 125%—a move likely to provoke further Chinese countermeasures. While agricultural commodities were sometimes spared in initial tranches, China’s exemption (waiver) process on Section 301 tariffs—crucial for raw almonds—remains discretionary and could be curtailed (Almond Board of California, 2025b; Almond Board of California, 2025a).
• European Union: Moved forward with 10% and 25% duties on a range of commodities, noting that raw almonds would be subject to a 25% duty effective December 1. Although this specifically cites raw almonds, exporters should assume policy could expand to other forms if escalation persists; monitoring is essential (Almond Board of California, 2025b).
• Canada and Mexico: Canada announced immediate retaliatory tariffs of 25% on a large basket of U.S. goods on February 4, with more to follow—importantly, almonds and almond products were not on Canada’s list at that time; retaliatory measures with Mexico were postponed 30 days after last-minute negotiations (Almond Board of California, 2025a).
• Domestic policy dynamics: Some U.S. congressional leaders proposed reasserting Congress’s constitutional authority over tariffs; one Senate bill would limit the President’s ability to impose tariffs on Canada without congressional review. Legislative outcomes remain uncertain, adding to policy-risk premia for exporters (Almond Board of California, 2025b).

Implications for almond flour versus raw almonds

• EU: The 25% EU duty flagged for December 1 specifically targets raw almonds; the EU MFN duty on almond flour remains 8.3% in the schedule. That said, escalation risks can spill over. Contracting with EU buyers should continue, with duty/VAT priced into DDP quotes and shipping plans adjusted to pre-December raw shipments where relevant to processing-in-EU models (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2025b).
• China: The most acute risk remains in China. Under the Phase One-era waiver process, Chinese importers have been paying roughly 25% on raw almonds instead of the nominal 55% retaliatory rate. Almond flour is not explicitly addressed in the waiver language cited, and regulatory and tariff treatment can diverge between raw and processed forms. GACC registration and labeling compliance are non-negotiable. Strategy: treat China as a premium, volatile outlet—hedge with shorter-tenor contracts, incorporate tariff pass-through clauses, and maintain alternative market pipelines (Almond Board of California, 2025a; Almond Board of California, 2024).
• FTA and near-FTA markets: Australia, Bahrain, Canada (USMCA) provide stable, low-duty access for almond flour; the operational focus should be compliance and logistics optimization, not tariff engineering (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2023).

Trade performance and cost-of-tariffs evidence

The quantitative footprint of retaliation is large. Applied economics analysis finds that retaliatory tariffs and 2021–2022 container disruptions together caused substantial losses for California’s almond sector: total foregone exports due to retaliatory tariffs exceeded $755 million over MY 2017/18–2021/22, with annual losses peaking around $290 million in 2019/20. Losses were driven chiefly by China (−$565 million), followed by Turkey and India. Notably, waiver-driven easing in China subsequently halved losses, highlighting the outsized role of Chinese policy discretion in determining outcomes for the industry (and by extension, for value-added forms like almond flour) (Choices Magazine, 2023).

The same analysis documented that exports were 38% below the counterfactual level during the first 12 months after retaliatory tariffs were implemented, when the average tariff was about 22%. In the logistics crisis window (Apr 2021–Aug 2022), additional foregone exports were about $775 million, compounding the tariff damage. The industry lost nearly 290 million pounds in export volume due to retaliatory tariffs alone over the study period. A key strategic takeaway is that preferential access for Australian almonds in China (0% under ChAFTA) and emerging preferences in India eroded U.S. share—an ongoing competitiveness issue that affects price realization for both raw and processed products (Choices Magazine, 2023).

Market observations in 2025

Trade press and local reporting in 2025 underscore that almond market participants are bracing for tariff volatility and re-routing shipments opportunistically. California grows roughly 80% of the world’s almonds and exports most of its crop, so the tariff cycle materially affects farm-gate prices and orchard economics. Industry voices describe Canada as a near-term pull-forward buyer and warn that any Indian tariff hikes could quickly challenge affordability in that crucial market, while continued emphasis is placed on diversifying destinations and reducing trade barriers (The Business Journal, 2025; LAist, 2025).

Practical strategy for almond flour exporters (2025–2026)

• Prioritize structurally favorable markets:
  • EU: Continue to sell into Europe with priced-in 8.3% duty and country VAT; explore customer-shared landed-cost calculators and consider Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) parity to reduce buyer friction. Watch December 1 measures and any spillover to processed forms (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2025b).
  • Australia, Bahrain, Canada: Leverage 0% duty; in Australia, manage entry fees and GST; in Canada, align invoices to FOB valuation to control GST base and anticipate HST/PST mechanics by province (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2023).
• Treat China as high-risk/high-reward:
  • Maintain GACC registrations current, verify product HS alignment, and ensure certificate-of-origin documentation is clean. Use flexible contract terms (e.g., tariff triggers, re-pricing windows) and maintain alternative sales channels to redeploy volume if waivers lapse or rates change abruptly (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2025a).
• Engineer total landed cost, not just duty:
  • Optimize shipment consolidation to amortize per-entry fees (e.g., Brazil’s SISCOMEX), and model cumulative taxes (Bangladesh) to avoid underquoted offers. Where VAT is applied on duty-paid value (EU, Bangladesh, Brazil), shaving freight/insurance within reason can modestly reduce total tax exposure (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Documentation discipline:
  • Phytosanitary certificates remain widely required and are essential for mixed loads including raw forms. Ensure HS classification consistency (1106.30 for flour) across commercial invoice, packing list, and certificates to prevent holds (Almond Board of California, 2024).
• Policy monitoring and advocacy:
  • Follow ABC Global Updates for reciprocal tariff timelines and partner responses; engage buyers with transparent updates about potential surcharges or shipment timing adjustments. Where feasible, align with industry advocacy to sustain Chinese waiver processes and to resist expansion of EU measures beyond raw almonds (Almond Board of California, 2025a; Almond Board of California, 2025b).

Outlook

• Baseline: In 2025, most core markets for almond flour remain accessible at stable rates—0% into FTA partners (Australia, Bahrain, Canada) and 8.3% into the EU—supporting continued shipments if pricing reflects these structural frictions.
• Upside: Any de-escalation in reciprocal tariff actions, or expansion of product-specific waivers in China to cover processed forms, would present immediate price/margin upside.
• Downside: Extension of retaliatory lists to include processed nuts/flours in either the EU or China would compress margins and shift flows to FTA markets, potentially discounting prices amidst crowded channels. Given the evidence that tariffs have already imposed hundreds of millions in lost exports historically, the prudent stance is to price optionality into contracts and diversify destination risk (Choices Magazine, 2023; Almond Board of California, 2025b).

Conclusion

Almond flour exporters face a two-tier environment: structurally favorable access in several key markets, offset by episodic, policy-driven shocks that can rapidly alter relative competitiveness. The EU’s 8.3% MFN duty is the largest predictable hurdle among major developed buyers, while Australia, Bahrain, and Canada remain welcoming. Bangladesh and Brazil demonstrate that cumulative taxes can dwarf headline duties; China remains the wildcard—demand-rich but policy-sensitive. In this context, disciplined landed-cost engineering, documentation rigor, and portfolio diversification—combined with close monitoring of 2025 reciprocal tariff developments—are the practical levers to defend margin and market share in the year ahead. (Almond Board of California, 2024; Almond Board of California, 2025a; Almond Board of California, 2025b; Choices Magazine, 2023; The Business Journal, 2025; LAist, 2025)

References

• Almond Board of California. (2024, June 26). Summary of applied tariffs and other trade measures applicable to U.S. almonds. Almond Board of California. https://www.almonds.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/ABC%20Tariff%20Chart%20June%202024.pdf
• Almond Board of California. (2023, February 1). Summary of applied tariffs and other trade measures applicable to U.S. almonds. Almond Board of California. https://www.almonds.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/Tariff%20Chart%202023.pdf
• Almond Board of California. (2025, February 12). Global update – American First trade policy; China waiver status; retaliatory measures. Almond Board of California. https://www.almonds.org/sites/default/files/2025-02/2025GTRA0002_Feb_GlobalUpdate_Final_0.pdf
• Almond Board of California. (2025, April 10). Global update – Reciprocal tariffs rolled out (Draft v3). Almond Board of California. https://www.almonds.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/2025GTRA0005_April_GlobalUpdate_Draft_v3.pdf
• Choices Magazine. (2023). Retaliatory tariffs and container shipping disruptions cause considerable trade damages to California’s almond industry (3rd Quarter 2023). Choices Magazine Online (AAEA). https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/submitted-articles/retaliatory-tariffs-and-container-shipping-disruptions-cause-considerable-trade-damages-to-californias-almond-industry
• LAist. (2025). Tariffs on almonds. LAist. https://laist.com/brief/news/climate-environment/trump-liberation-day-tariffs-california-almond-farmers
• The Business Journal. (2025, March 11). California almond growers grapple with uncertainty as new tariffs could hit exports. The Business Journal. https://thebusinessjournal.com/california-almond-growers-grapple-with-uncertainty-as-new-tariffs-could-hit-exports/

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current tariff rate for almond flour in the European Union?

The European Union imposes an 8.3% Most Favored Nation (MFN) duty on almond flour (HS 1106.30). This rate is consistent across member states, making it a significant consideration for U.S. exporters.

How do tariffs in Australia and Canada affect almond flour exports?

Both Australia and Canada offer 0% duty on almond flour under their respective free trade agreements with the U.S. However, exporters should be aware of additional costs such as Australia's 10% GST and various provincial taxes in Canada that can impact overall landed costs.

What are the cumulative taxes imposed by Bangladesh on almond flour?

Bangladesh imposes a 25% customs duty on almond flour, along with several additional taxes that can significantly increase total landed costs. These include a 5% AIT, 5% ATV, 3% Regulatory Duty, and 15% VAT, which can collectively exceed the headline duty.

How do indirect taxes affect the pricing of almond flour in Brazil?

In Brazil, the effective cost of almond flour is influenced by a 9% customs duty and several indirect taxes, including an 18% ICMS and a flat fee of approximately BRL 214.5 per item. These taxes are calculated on the duty-paid value, making it crucial for exporters to account for them when pricing.

What documentation is required for exporting almond flour to China?

Exporters must ensure compliance with several requirements for almond flour shipments to China, including a certificate of origin and registration with the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). Additionally, maintaining accurate HS classification is essential to avoid regulatory issues.

How have recent trade policies impacted almond flour exports to China?

In 2025, the U.S. implemented a 10% tariff on imports, which has led to reciprocal tariffs from China, increasing the risk for almond flour exporters. The situation remains volatile, with potential tariff waivers for raw almonds not necessarily extending to processed forms like almond flour.

What strategies should exporters adopt to mitigate tariff risks in 2025?

Exporters should prioritize markets with favorable tariffs, such as the EU, Australia, and Canada, while treating China as a high-risk, high-reward market. Implementing flexible contract terms and closely monitoring policy changes can help manage exposure to tariff volatility.