• Almond flour prices in 2025 are projected to remain firm due to tight almond kernel supply in California, with current kernel prices stabilizing around $2.60 per pound and potential upward pressure toward $3.00 if yields continue to disappoint.

• The almond flour market is expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately $2.15 billion in 2025 and nearly $4.88 billion by 2035, driven by increasing demand for gluten-free and health-oriented products, particularly blanched flour which commands a premium.

• Cost inflation from water, energy, and labor continues to impact pricing, with processors likely passing these increases onto blanched flour first; sustainable grower returns necessitate kernel prices in the $3.00–$3.50 range to maintain profitability.

• Buyers should implement layered coverage strategies and maintain flexibility between natural and blanched flour to mitigate price risks, especially as market volatility is anticipated in the upcoming crop cycles.

Price Drivers

Almond Flour Price Drivers: 2025 Market Conditions, Mechanisms, and Outlook

Executive summary

Almond flour pricing in 2025 is being shaped primarily by upstream almond kernel market tightness in California, persistent cost inflation (water, energy, labor), and resilient end-market demand from gluten-free and “better-for-you” bakery and plant-based foods. A mid‑year price dip—triggered by an unexpectedly high 3.0‑billion‑pound Objective Estimate (OE)—gave way to a rebound as field receipts and turnouts trended lower than forecast, carryover remained manageable, and shipments improved into mid‑year. The result has been kernel prices stabilizing in the mid‑$2.60s per pound with upside risk toward $3.00 if yields continue to disappoint and carry-in remains lean. Given the one-to-one linkage between kernel and almond flour inputs, flour prices are most sensitive to kernel price swings, blanching premiums, and processing costs. The balance of evidence indicates 2025–2026 almond flour prices are likely to remain firm versus 2023–2024 averages, with blanched flour maintaining a structural premium over natural flour due to additional processing and strong bakery demand. Buyers should consider layered coverage and spec flexibility (natural vs blanched) to manage price risk in the next two crop cycles (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025a; Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025b; AGNet West, 2025).

Why almond flour prices move: a value chain view

Almond flour is a processed derivative of almond kernels; hence its price is anchored to kernel prices plus conversion costs and premiums for specific specifications (e.g., blanched vs natural). This makes the following drivers decisive:

• California-centric supply fundamentals (crop size, yields/turnouts, carryover stocks)
• Cost push (water, energy, labor, compliance) in orchards and processing
• End‑use demand growth in gluten‑free and health‑positioned categories
• Product specification mix (blanched vs natural) and processing intensity
• Trade, logistics, tariffs, and currency dynamics
• Substitution and competition for kernels across almond product categories

Each of these factors is active in 2025.

Upstream supply: crop size, carryover, and price transmission to flour

• Global production and U.S. share. In 2023/24, global almond output (shelled basis) was ~1.45 million tons, with the United States accounting for 77% (~1.12 million tons). USDA projections pointed to a 13% rise to ~1.6 million tons in 2024/25, underscoring how California shapes world availability and pricing. Any divergence between forecasts and realized yields quickly transmits to kernel and derived-product prices, including flour (Almond By‑Products Review, 2025).

• 2025 Objective Estimate and reality on the ground. The 2025 OE surprised the industry at 3.0 billion pounds, triggering an immediate 30–40 cents per pound drop as markets discounted a larger crop. Subsequent field intel showed lighter‑than‑expected yields (especially in Nonpareil) and skepticism that receipts would reach 3.0 billion, with many buyers and processors assuming closer to 2.8–2.85 billion pounds. This gap between OE and field receipts contributed to firmer prices into mid‑year as liquidity dried up and sellers waited for clearer harvest data (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025a).

• Carryover and price support. California entered the 2025 season with ~500 million pounds of carryover—substantially lower than the 1.0+ billion pounds seen a few years prior—helping tighten availability and support price recovery as harvest progressed and receipts underwhelmed initial expectations (AGNet West, 2025).

• Price recovery evidence. After falling below $2.00/lb on the OE shock, kernel prices rebounded into the $2.60–$2.70/lb range by late summer, with some industry commentary anticipating a potential test of $3.00/lb by spring if receipts continue to lag earlier estimates and shipment momentum holds. For flour manufacturers, these movements define the baseline input cost trajectory into 2026 contracts (AGNet West, 2025).

• Historical benchmark. As a point of reference, the average unit export value across shelled and in‑shell almonds from Aug 2019 to Jul 2020 was $2.64/lb (export value divided by quantity), providing a useful historical anchor when comparing current price recovery levels and margin sustainability thresholds familiar to handlers and millers (Federal Register, 2022).

Cost push: water, energy, labor, and compliance

Cost inflation remains a crucial non‑harvest driver:

• Water and energy. California almond production faces recurring water allocation uncertainty and elevated irrigation and pumping costs. While 2025 drought conditions vary by district, industry perspective consistently highlights water expense and availability as a persistent pressure point on cost of goods. Energy prices compound these pressures for both orchard operations (pumping) and processing (blanching, drying, milling), and they are reflected in negotiated flour prices, especially for blanched grades. Industry coverage in 2025 repeatedly identified water and energy as key contributors to total cost and pricing firmness (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025a; AGNet West, 2025).

• Labor and inputs. Elevated labor costs, fertilizer, and transport also feed through to the kernel, and ultimately flour, price structure. Growers and processors have emphasized that sustainable grower returns require kernel prices in the $3.00–$3.50/lb range given input cost realities—framing the upper bound of price expectations if availability tightens further into 2026 (AGNet West, 2025).

• By‑product offsets are limited. Orchard co‑products like hulls and shells provide some revenue but remain low‑value: California alone produces ~3 million tons of hulls and ~1 million tons of shells annually; hulls sell around $100/ton and shells add minimal value. These levels offer only minor offsets to the cost base and have negligible direct impact on flour pricing trajectories (Almond By‑Products Review, 2025).

Demand: resilient end use and the blanched premium

• Steady global demand. Despite volatility in production and prices, international demand for U.S. almonds remains resilient—across Europe and Asia in particular—supported by almonds’ health credentials and versatility in snacks and plant‑based foods. Demand firmness is a pivotal support for prices through the 2025 marketing year, even with higher offer levels (Momex, 2025).

• Almond flour market growth. Multiple market analyses point to sustained growth in almond flour demand:

  • Future Market Insights estimates the almond flour market at ~$2.15 billion in 2025, reaching ~$4.88 billion by 2035 (CAGR ~8.6%), with blanched flour projected to hold ~63.5% share in 2025—an indicator of persistent premium demand from industrial baking (Future Market Insights, 2025).
  • Straits Research projects ~$2.44 billion by 2031 (CAGR ~7.8%), citing traction from low‑carb, gluten‑free baking across household and commercial channels (Straits Research, 2023).
  • Market Research Future similarly expects growth at ~8.6% CAGR to 2035, referencing the continued rise of gluten‑free and plant‑forward diets (Market Research Future, 2025).

  Individually, these are commercial estimates; collectively, they corroborate robust end‑use demand that supports firm pricing for both kernels and flour in 2025–2026 (Future Market Insights, 2025; Straits Research, 2023; Market Research Future, 2025).

• Blanched vs natural flour. The processing step to remove skins (blanching) increases both cost and price relative to natural almond flour. Given the bakery segment’s preference for light color and neutral flavor, blanched flour dominates volume and commands a structural premium—a gap that widens under energy/labor inflation. The market share lead of blanched flour (~63.5% in 2025 per FMI) signals ongoing premiumization in core demand channels (Future Market Insights, 2025).

Trade, logistics, and policy

• Tariffs and geopolitics. Commercial market research flagged 2025 policy uncertainty (tariff changes under a new U.S. administration) as a possible swing factor. While such projections are speculative, tariff shifts can influence regional demand, trade flows, and netbacks to U.S. handlers—translating to volatility in kernel and flour offers to overseas buyers (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Logistics and carry dynamics. After the post‑pandemic logistics resets, 2025 shipping has been steadier than the 2021–2022 period. However, when carry-in is low and receipts disappoint, earlier‑than‑usual product tightness can emerge, supporting price stability into the second half. Industry briefs in 2025 pointed to early product shortages under reduced crop receipts—contributing to firmer prices and a stabilization narrative by mid‑year (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025b).

Putting the drivers together: 2025–2026 implications

The following table summarizes the primary almond flour price drivers in 2025 and their net impact.

My evidence‑based opinion on 2025–2026 price formation

• The dominant driver is the upstream kernel balance in California—not the nominal OE, but how realized receipts and turnouts compare to it. The mid‑2025 data suggest the crop is smaller than the OE implied, carryover is manageable (not burdensome), and buyers have re‑engaged, supporting kernel prices in the mid‑$2.60s with upside risk. That dynamic lifts almond flour price floors into 2026 contracts, particularly for blanched flour given higher processing intensity (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025a; Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025b; AGNet West, 2025).

• Demand remains a supportive second‑order driver. The gluten‑free and “better‑for‑you” bakery segments continue expanding. Multiple independent (though commercial) sources converge on mid‑ to high‑single‑digit CAGRs for almond flour out to 2031–2035. This demand backdrop makes price softness less likely to persist when supply disappoints even modestly (Future Market Insights, 2025; Straits Research, 2023; Market Research Future, 2025).

• Cost push is sticky. Water, energy, and labor inflation are not transitory. The industry’s stated need for higher kernel returns to sustain acreage and orchard health implies structurally firmer input costs for flour mills to manage and price in—particularly for blanched flour. Expect the blanched‑over‑natural premium to persist or widen under higher utilities and compliance costs (AGNet West, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Policy risk cuts both ways. Tariff or non‑tariff shifts could tighten or loosen regional netbacks; however, given the current balance of supply and demand, policy headwinds would more likely alter destination mix than reverse the firming trend—unless they are large or prolonged (Research and Markets, 2025).

Bottom line: with realized supply under the OE, lean carryover, and resilient demand, kernel prices—and therefore almond flour prices—are biased higher than 2023–2024 averages through the 2025–2026 buying window. Blanched flour should keep a structural premium, and cost inflation in processing will remain a key component of final pricing.

Practical procurement guidance for almond flour buyers

• Hedge the kernel linkage: Treat kernel market direction as your primary signal. Monitor monthly position reports, receipts, and shipments; when field receipts lag OE and carryover is moderate, prioritize coverage for blanched flour first given its higher sensitivity to processing costs and demand concentration (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025a; AGNet West, 2025).

• Layer contracts: Given 2025 volatility, stagger purchases across quarters to average cost and secure supply. Consider splitting specs (e.g., partial natural flour substitution in suitable formulations) to mitigate exposure to blanched premiums during tight periods (Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Watch cost pass‑throughs: Expect processors to pass energy and labor increases into blanched flour first. Early engagement on processing windows and freight can reduce spot surcharges during seasonal peaks (AGNet West, 2025).

• Plan for policy scenarios: For export‑dependent programs, include tariff clauses or multi‑origin flexibility where possible. While California dominates, alternative origins (where available) can blunt policy shocks in specific lanes (Research and Markets, 2025).

Concluding assessment

Almond flour pricing in 2025 is a straightforward reflection of two realities: California’s realized almond supply is tighter than early estimates implied, and demand in bakery and health‑positioned foods remains robust. With costs elevated, carryover constrained, and blanched flour preferred in industrial applications, the path of least resistance for almond flour pricing is sideways‑to‑higher into 2026. Buyers who align coverage cadence with kernel market signals, maintain spec flexibility, and engage early on processing and freight are best positioned to manage cost and secure continuity of supply (Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025a; Harris Woolf Almonds, 2025b; AGNet West, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

References

• AGNet West. (2025, August). California almond harvest 2025: Prices and yields. AGNet West. https://agnetwest.com/california-almond-harvest-2025/
• Almond By‑Products: A comprehensive review of composition, bioactivities, and influencing factors. (2025). National Institutes of Health, PubMed Central (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11941897/
• Federal Register. (2022, February 22). Marketing order regulations for almonds grown in California. Office of the Federal Register. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/22/2022-03460/marketing-order-regulations-for-almonds-grown-in-california
• Future Market Insights. (2025, July 4). Almond flour market size, share & industry forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market
• Harris Woolf Almonds. (2025a, August 12). Almond market briefing – June 2025 position report & objective estimate. Harris Woolf Almonds. https://harriswoolfalmonds.com/almond-market-briefing-june-2025-position-report-objective-estimate/
• Harris Woolf Almonds. (2025b). Almond brief: July position report 2025 – Key takeaways. Harris Woolf Almonds. https://harriswoolfalmonds.com/almond-brief-july-position-report-2025-key-takeaways/
• Market Research Future. (2025). Almond flour market size, share, trends, industry reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860
• Momex. (2025, October 4). Why U.S. almond prices are on the rise in 2025. Momex. https://momex.ae/news/why-us-almond-prices-are-on-the-rise-in-2025/
• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 almond flour market report – Industry size, competition, trends and growth opportunities by region – Forecast by types and applications (2024–2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size
• Straits Research. (2023, April). Almond flour market growth, trends and forecast to 2031. Straits Research. https://straitsresearch.com/report/almond-flour-market

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main factors driving almond flour prices in 2025?

Almond flour prices are primarily influenced by California's almond kernel market tightness, cost inflation (water, energy, labor), and strong demand from gluten-free and health-focused bakery segments. In 2025, kernel prices are stabilizing in the mid-$2.60s per pound, with potential increases toward $3.00 if yields continue to disappoint.

How does the supply of almond kernels affect almond flour pricing?

The supply of almond kernels directly impacts almond flour pricing due to their one-to-one linkage. For instance, the 2025 Objective Estimate of 3.0 billion pounds was revised downward to 2.8–2.85 billion pounds, contributing to firmer prices as market liquidity tightened and sellers anticipated lower receipts.

What role does cost inflation play in almond flour pricing?

Cost inflation significantly affects almond flour pricing, particularly due to rising costs for water, energy, and labor. In 2025, sustainable grower returns are cited as requiring kernel prices in the $3.00–$3.50 per pound range, indicating that these costs will be passed through to flour prices.

How does the demand for almond flour compare to other products?

Demand for almond flour remains robust, particularly in gluten-free and health-oriented markets. The almond flour market is projected to reach approximately $2.15 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 8.6% expected through 2035, indicating strong growth potential.

Why is there a premium for blanched almond flour over natural almond flour?

Blanched almond flour commands a premium due to the additional processing required to remove skins, which enhances its appeal in the bakery segment. In 2025, blanched flour is expected to hold a 63.5% market share, reflecting its strong demand and the price sensitivity to energy and labor costs.

What are the implications of carryover stocks on almond flour prices?

Carryover stocks significantly influence almond flour prices by affecting supply availability. In 2025, California's carryover is approximately 500 million pounds, which is lower than previous years, tightening the market and supporting price recovery as harvest expectations adjust.

How do trade and policy uncertainties impact almond flour pricing?

Trade and policy uncertainties, such as potential tariff changes, can create volatility in almond flour pricing by affecting demand and trade flows. While these uncertainties are speculative, they could either enhance or erode netbacks to U.S. handlers, influencing pricing dynamics in the market.