• Almond flour prices have significantly declined, with global high export/import prices dropping by 34% from 2023 to 2024 and 51% from 2022, indicating a return to more stable market conditions after previous peaks.

• In the U.S., export prices fell 27% year-over-year in 2024, with high-end prices decreasing from $11.22/kg in 2023 to $8.19/kg in 2024, reflecting improved supply dynamics.

• Despite price reductions, structural demand for almond flour remains strong, driven by gluten-free and low-carb trends, with market growth projected at a CAGR of approximately 9.2% through 2034, reaching around $2.93 billion.

• Buyers are advised to capitalize on the current pricing environment to secure contracts at favorable rates, as future price volatility may arise from fluctuating demand and supply conditions.

Historical Price Trends

Almond Flour Historical Price Trends

Executive summary

• Trade prices for almond flour fell sharply from 2022–2023 peaks into 2024, especially at the high end of the range. Global high export/import prices declined by about 34% from 2023 to 2024 (and by roughly 51% from 2022), while the low-price floor remained relatively stable around $4.60–$4.70/kg globally. In the United States, 2024 export prices fell 27% year over year at both the low and high ends; import prices fell 11–16% year over year. These moves suggest abundant supply and less price dispersion across grades, origins, and deal structures by 2024. At the same time, multiple market analyses indicate continued structural demand growth for almond flour (e.g., gluten-free and low-carb applications), implying that price volatility may persist even as the long-run market expands. (Tridge, 2024; Tridge, 2024—United States; Expert Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025)

Data sources and approach

This report synthesizes:

• Tridge trade price ranges (global and United States) for almond flour across 2022–2024. These data reflect export and import unit values observed in trade records, expressed as low–high ranges per kilogram (with per‑pound equivalents noted). Trade prices are not retail prices; they exclude downstream costs (packaging, branding, retail margins) and can differ from consumer shelf prices. Nonetheless, they provide a consistent, comparable gauge of market-level price trends over time. (Tridge, 2024; Tridge, 2024—United States)

• Market context from recent industry analyses (market size and growth outlooks) to situate demand-side dynamics behind almond flour’s adoption and the likely implications for pricing. These are secondary sources and should be treated as indicative, but they help triangulate structural trends. (Expert Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025)

• A methodological note on comparing historical food prices, including the importance of standardizing to common units (e.g., price per ounce) and acknowledging variability across sources and package sizes. This underscores why this report uses per‑kg (and per‑lb) ranges wherever available. (Food Timeline, n.d.)

• Peer‑reviewed evidence on almond flour’s performance in baked goods. While not a price source, this offers context for sustained demand (gluten‑free, keto) that can interact with supply to shape prices. (PMC, 2021/2022)

Where appropriate, we quantify percent changes in the low–high ranges to show direction and magnitude of shifts.

Historical price levels: 2022–2024

Global almond flour trade prices

The global export/import price ranges (USD per kg and per lb) show a pronounced normalization from 2022 to 2024, especially at the high end.

Source: Tridge global almond flour prices (export/import ranges) for 2022–2024. (Tridge, 2024)

Key observations:

• High-end prices compressed by about 34% from 2023 to 2024 (13.08 → 8.62 USD/kg) and by about 51% from 2022 to 2024 (17.63 → 8.62 USD/kg).

• The low-price floor was comparatively stable from 2023 to 2024 (4.60 → 4.68 USD/kg), suggesting that baseline supply was available while premium deals and tighter conditions eased.

• The narrowing low–high spread points to reduced dispersion across qualities/origins or a reversion from elevated premiums during tight market windows.

United States export prices

U.S. export price ranges moved down sharply between 2023 and 2024, consistent with the global picture.

Source: Tridge U.S. export price ranges (2022–2024). (Tridge, 2024—United States)

• 2023 → 2024 change: low −26.9% (6.92 → 5.06 USD/kg); high −27.0% (11.22 → 8.19 USD/kg).

• 2022 → 2024 change: high −56.6% (18.88 → 8.19 USD/kg), indicating a marked retreat from the 2022 peak conditions.

United States import prices

U.S. import prices also fell in 2024, though less steeply than export prices, with both low and high ends moving lower.

Source: Tridge U.S. import price ranges (2022–2024). (Tridge, 2024—United States)

• 2023 → 2024 change: low −10.6%; high −15.9%.

• 2022 → 2024 change: high −45.5% (13.13 → 7.16 USD/kg).

Percent change summary

Sources: Tridge global and U.S. price ranges (2022–2024). (Tridge, 2024; Tridge, 2024—United States)

Interpretation:

• The high-end contraction is the dominant feature from 2022 to 2024, with the steepest drops in U.S. export highs. This typically reflects normalization after tight conditions (e.g., logistics, supply-demand imbalances) abate, removing the need for premium-priced spot deals or niche-origin premiums.

• The modest stability of global low prices from 2023 to 2024 indicates that an “effective floor” held in place, likely reflecting base production economics and consistent baseline supply.

• U.S. import prices were stickier than export prices in 2024, which is consistent with importers’ contractual lags, origin mix, and freight components keeping import unit values somewhat more insulated than export offers in a softening market.

Structural demand context

While prices softened in 2024, multiple independent market analyses describe a growing almond flour market over the medium term, driven by:

• Expanded use in gluten‑free and low‑carb baking.

• Product innovation (e.g., blanched vs. natural, finer grinds) that makes almond flour a functional substitute in broader applications.

• Greater availability via online and offline channels.

Estimates differ by source (methodologies and market definitions vary), but the common direction is robust growth:

• Expert Market Research (EMR) estimates the global almond flour market reached about USD 1.21 billion in 2024 and projects a 2025–2034 CAGR of ~9.2% to ~USD 2.93 billion by 2034. While EMR is a commercial publisher, the direction and scale of growth align with wider industry commentary. (Expert Market Research, 2024)

• Future Market Insights (FMI) projects growth from USD 2.15 billion (2025) to USD 4.88 billion (2035) (CAGR ~8.6%). Despite a higher starting level than EMR, FMI’s forecast similarly indicates sustained, mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit annual growth over a decade. (Future Market Insights, 2025)

These demand-side narratives are consistent with peer‑reviewed evidence on almond flour’s performance in baked goods. For instance, controlled testing of ketogenic, gluten‑free cupcakes found that higher almond flour ratios were associated with greater cupcake volume and improved tenderness and cohesion—attributes valued in product formulation and consumer acceptance, which support ongoing adoption in gluten‑free markets. (PMC, 2021/2022)

Taken together, the macro signal is that 2024’s price softening coincided not with a demand collapse but with supply/demand rebalancing and “shifting market conditions” noted in trade sources—implying that almond flour’s structural market remains sound even as near‑term prices normalize. (Tridge, 2024)

Interpreting 2022–2024 pricing dynamics

• Peak and normalization: The exceptionally high 2022 ranges (global highs near USD 17.63/kg; U.S. export highs near USD 18.88/kg) likely captured an environment of tightness and elevated trade frictions. The subsequent 2023 declines, and further compression by 2024, are characteristic of normalization as supply chains and inventories adjust. The high end of the price spectrum is where such normalization is most visible.

• Floor resilience: The 2023–2024 global low-price floor held roughly steady, and the U.S. import low remained well above 2022 lows. This profile suggests that while extraordinary premiums evaporated, base production and trade economics kept a consistent cost floor intact.

• Narrower dispersion: By 2024, a higher share of deals appears to have settled into a tighter band (smaller low–high spread), consistent with more predictable availability and fewer spot shortages. Buyers saw materially better value at the top end; sellers saw less ability to command premiums.

• Geographic nuances: The U.S. export market showed the sharpest cooling in 2024, which could reflect a combination of improved outbound availability and competitively priced origins vying for similar demand—not a claim of causality, but a pattern consistent with the data.

Retail vs. trade prices and the importance of unit standardization

This report focuses on trade (export/import) prices, which are informative for procurement but are not the same as retail shelf prices. Retail prices incorporate additional costs (branding, packaging, distribution, retailer margins) and may be higher and slower to adjust than trade prices.

When comparing prices across time and sources, unit standardization matters. Historical price compendia emphasize converting to a common unit (e.g., per ounce) and recognizing that different package sizes or channels can skew comparisons—hence our reliance on per‑kg (and per‑lb) ranges from the same source across years for consistency. (Food Timeline, n.d.)

Implications for buyers and formulators

• Procurement timing: The 2024 environment offered materially improved conditions versus 2022–2023, especially at the high end. Buyers able to shift from short‑dated spot purchases to planned contracts likely benefited from narrower spreads and lower peaks.

• Specification strategy: With premium differentials compressed, 2024 made it more economical to meet tighter specifications (e.g., finer grind, blanching) without paying 2022‑style premiums. However, if the market tightens again, premiums for these specs may re‑expand.

• Demand durability: Evidence from both industry outlooks and peer‑reviewed product performance points to continued demand from gluten‑free and low‑carb segments. This underpins medium‑term volume growth even if short‑run prices fluctuate. (Expert Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025; PMC, 2021/2022)

Limitations

• Trade price ranges are indicative: They aggregate many transactions (origins, qualities, incoterms). They are valuable for directional trends but do not capture every nuance (e.g., organic certification, ultra‑fine grind, co‑packed consumer formats).

• Retail data are out of scope here: This report does not attempt to reconcile consumer shelf prices with trade prices. Retail dynamics can be stickier due to contracts and inventory lags.

• Market size estimates vary: Commercial research houses use differing definitions and methodologies; figures should be read as directional rather than definitive.

Assessment and opinion

Based on the compiled evidence, my assessment is that almond flour’s trade prices experienced a pronounced peak in 2022 and a significant two‑year normalization by 2024, with the most dramatic declines concentrated at the high end of the pricing spectrum. The persistence of a relatively steady global low-price floor from 2023 to 2024 indicates that the market did not overshoot into distress but rather settled into a more competitive, well‑supplied equilibrium. In the U.S., exporters saw particularly sharp relief, while import prices fell more moderately, consistent with contract lag and mix effects.

This price-softening phase is occurring alongside secular demand growth anchored in gluten‑free and low‑carb baking, expanding channel availability, and continuing product innovation. As a result, the medium‑term outlook points to an expanding market with episodic volatility rather than a sustained downtrend in price. For buyers, 2024 provided a favorable window to lock in value and upgrade specifications while spreads were compressed. For sellers, the environment rewarded efficiency and differentiation, as generalized premiums were harder to command. Absent new supply shocks or policy shifts, a pragmatic expectation is for continued banded trade within the tighter ranges observed in 2024, with movement primarily driven by harvest outcomes and demand pulses from food manufacturing rather than the extreme dislocations seen in 2022. (Tridge, 2024; Tridge, 2024—United States; Expert Market Research, 2024; Future Market Insights, 2025)

References

• Expert Market Research. (2024). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Growth | 2034. Expert Market Research. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Future Market Insights. (2025, July 4). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Food Timeline. (n.d.). The Food Timeline—historic food prices. Food Timeline. https://www.foodtimeline.org/foodfaq5.html

• Tridge. (2024). Global Almond Flour Price. Tridge. https://dir.tridge.com/prices/almond-flour

• Tridge. (2024). Almond Flour Price in United States. Tridge. https://dir.tridge.com/prices/almond-flour/US

• U.S. National Library of Medicine. (2021/2022). Influence of almond and coconut flours on Ketogenic, Gluten-Free cupcakes. PubMed Central (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8666506/

Frequently Asked Questions

What were the historical price trends for almond flour from 2022 to 2024?

From 2022 to 2024, global almond flour prices saw a significant decline, with high-end prices dropping by approximately 51%, from $17.63/kg in 2022 to $8.62/kg in 2024. The low-price floor remained relatively stable, fluctuating between $4.60 and $4.70/kg during this period.

How did U.S. export prices change from 2023 to 2024?

U.S. export prices for almond flour decreased sharply between 2023 and 2024, with low prices falling by 26.9% (from $6.92 to $5.06/kg) and high prices dropping by 27.0% (from $11.22 to $8.19/kg). This reflects a broader trend of normalization following the peak prices observed in 2022.

What were the changes in U.S. import prices for almond flour from 2023 to 2024?

U.S. import prices for almond flour also declined in 2024, with low prices decreasing by 10.6% (from $7.06 to $6.31/kg) and high prices falling by 15.9% (from $8.51 to $7.16/kg). The high prices saw a notable 45.5% decrease from 2022 to 2024.

What factors contributed to the decline in almond flour prices?

The decline in almond flour prices can be attributed to an abundant supply and reduced price dispersion across different grades and origins. Despite the price drop, structural demand for almond flour continues to grow, driven by its applications in gluten-free and low-carb products.

How do the historical price trends impact procurement strategies?

The normalization of almond flour prices in 2024 offers buyers an opportunity to secure better procurement conditions compared to the high prices of 2022-2023. Buyers can benefit from narrower spreads and lower peaks, making it advantageous to shift from spot purchases to planned contracts.

What is the outlook for almond flour prices in the coming years?

While prices have softened in 2024, the medium-term outlook remains positive, with projected market growth driven by continued demand in gluten-free and low-carb segments. Analysts estimate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 9.2% from 2025 to 2034, indicating sustained demand despite potential short-term price fluctuations.

How do trade prices differ from retail prices for almond flour?

Trade prices reflect the costs associated with export and import transactions and do not include additional retail costs such as packaging and distribution. As a result, retail prices may be higher and slower to adjust compared to trade prices, which are more responsive to market conditions.