• Almond flour demand is projected to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit CAGR (7-9%) through the early 2030s, driven primarily by bakery applications and increasing North American consumption.

• California's almond prices have rebounded from below $2.00/lb in early 2023 to over $2.40/lb in mid-2024, indicating stable-to-firm input costs for almond flour manufacturers, with margins needing to adapt to these conditions.

• Regulatory pressures, particularly California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, are expected to elevate production costs and limit supply expansion, necessitating strategic procurement and operational efficiency from flour producers.

• E-commerce is increasingly vital for almond flour sales, with direct-to-consumer models enhancing brand visibility and pricing flexibility; companies should diversify channels to mitigate risks associated with traditional retail.

Macroeconomic & Consumer Trends

Almond flour macroeconomic and consumer trends: 2025 outlook

Product: Almond Flour

Section: Market Dynamics

Executive summary

Almond flour sits at the intersection of an upstream tree nut commodity that is exiting a multiyear bust and a downstream packaged-food segment buoyed by persistent health-and-wellness demand. Based on the latest industry reporting and peer‑reviewed context, my view is that almond flour demand will continue to grow at a mid- to high-single‑digit CAGR through the early 2030s, led by bakery applications and North American consumption. However, input volatility from California’s almond supply (water regulation, acreage adjustments, and rebalancing of inventories) will keep raw material prices above the 2022–2023 lows and compress milling margins unless producers use risk management, product mix, and by‑product valorization to offset costs. Strategically, the most resilient players will be those that: secure upstream kernel supply (contracts/vertical integration), focus on value‑added bakery and clean‑label SKUs, diversify channels (including e‑commerce), and monetize almond by‑products within circular economy models. While a return to the 2014 almond price peak is unlikely, the ongoing rebound and normalization of exports (including lower India tariffs) support a constructive, but disciplined, growth outlook for almond flour through 2030. (Klein, 2024)

1) Upstream realities that shape almond flour economics

Almond flour is milled from almonds; therefore, orchard economics and kernel prices set the floor for flour input costs. Several structural and cyclical forces in California—the world’s dominant almond origin—are pivotal:

• Price and inventory cycle. Wholesale almond prices bottomed below $2.00/lb in late 2022–early 2023, then recovered above $2.40/lb in mid‑2024. Even after the rebound, prices remain far from the ~$4.00/lb peak seen in 2014. Elevated carryout (~800 million lbs into the prior season, roughly double a “normal” year) has been a drag, but declining bearing acreage and improved exports have begun to tighten balance sheets. A Rabobank outlook cited by industry press expects prices to stabilize around recent levels over the next year, supported by export recovery and tariff relief in India. For flour producers, this implies input costs are likely to be stable-to‑firm rather than returning to 2022 lows. (Klein, 2024)

• Acreage and supply capacity. After three decades of rapid expansion—bearing acreage tripled to more than 1.3 million acres—California’s almond acreage declined for the first time in decades, a sign of supply rationalization following the bust. New plantings maturing into production during the downcycle aggravated oversupply; removals and fewer new acres should help re‑balance over the medium term. For almond flour, that sets the stage for more predictable kernel availability but with less surplus-driven discounting. (Klein, 2024)

• Water and regulation. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is constraining groundwater pumping, compelling growers to prioritize water access and, in some cases, fallow or shift crops. Land values for almond orchards have declined from 2014–2021 highs, reflecting tighter water economics and reduced investor enthusiasm. Over time, SGMA can cap upside in supply expansion and embed higher production costs, supporting a floor under kernel prices. Almond flour manufacturers should anticipate structurally higher water‑adjusted cost curves upstream and consider supply contracts responsive to policy-linked yield risk. (Klein, 2024)

• Trade and logistics. Pandemic‑era shipping snags depressed exports and swelled carryouts, but logistics have been normalizing. Lower tariffs in India—one of the largest almond destinations—are expected to support shipments, tightening the U.S. balance. For flour makers, better export throughput reduces the likelihood of distressed kernel pricing and supports more stable input planning. Still, 2024–2025 reports flag lingering supply‑chain and geopolitical uncertainties; operators should retain contingency in procurement and inventory. (Klein, 2024; Research and Markets, 2025)

Table 1. Upstream indicators relevant to almond flour cost structure

2) Almond flour market size and trajectory

Multiple industry analyses converge on continued growth for almond flour over the medium term, albeit with differing baselines and CAGRs. Triangulating these sources yields a directional view rather than a single-point forecast.

Table 2. Selected global almond flour market forecasts (directional comparison)

Despite methodological differences, the mid‑to‑high single‑digit growth band (roughly 7–9% CAGR) is consistent with enduring specialty diet trends and bakery innovation. Segmentally, bakery applications remain the largest use‑case, and North America is repeatedly identified as the leading regional market—patterns aligned with retail availability and consumer familiarity in these channels. (Research and Markets, 2031)

3) Consumer trends: demand pillars for almond flour

• Gluten‑free, keto, and low‑carb adoption. Almond flour’s gluten‑free and lower‑carbohydrate profile underpins its role in ketogenic and low‑carb bakery formulations. A peer‑reviewed scan of the global market for gluten‑free bakery products labeled as ketogenic and/or low‑carb highlights North America’s pivotal role and identifies baking flour mixes, breads, cakes, pastries, biscuits/crackers, and sweet biscuits as the dominant categories—exactly where almond flour features prominently as a wheat substitute. The same body of work notes an ongoing proliferation of products that meet these dietary claims, reinforcing steady ingredient demand. (Nutritional Quality of Gluten-Free Bakery Products…, 2022)

• Health and wellness positioning. Almonds carry positive associations—healthy fats, vitamin E, protein—widely leveraged in marketing. Industry promotion by the Almond Board has been active across languages and markets, employing athletes and fitness influencers; while these campaigns target whole almonds, halo effects support ingredient demand in bakery and snack innovation. (Klein, 2024)

• Clean label and sustainability. Consumer selectivity is pushing producers toward efficient and environmentally friendly practices and greater valorization of by‑products (skins, shells, hulls). Peer‑reviewed work underscores circular economy approaches that transform agri‑food by‑products into inputs for food, materials, and energy, both reducing waste and improving competitiveness. For almond flour brands, communicating by‑product utilization and sustainable sourcing can differentiate in crowded gluten‑free sets. (Almond By‑Products: Valorization…, 2021)

• Channel evolution. Industry analyses describe rising e‑commerce penetration for specialty flours, with online and offline channels complementing one another. For almond flour, direct‑to‑consumer subscription models and digital retail provide price transparency and brand storytelling opportunities, while mainstream grocery expansion cements habitual use. (Straits Research, 2023)

4) Macroeconomic and regulatory cross‑winds

• Trade policy and geopolitics. Market researchers flag that tariff regimes and geopolitical risk can swing growth trajectories in 2024–2025, pressuring manufacturer planning. While almond flour is often produced and sold domestically in North America, upstream almond kernels are globally traded; thus, changes in tariffs (e.g., India reductions), port throughput, or shipping costs can transmit into input prices and inventory timing. Maintaining flexible sourcing and safety stock remains prudent. (Research and Markets, 2025; Klein, 2024)

• Supply chain normalization with persistent friction. Pandemic bottlenecks have eased, but reports continue to cite ongoing logistics challenges and compliance complexity (food safety, labeling), which can lift operating costs for mid‑size brands. Proactive regulatory management, diversified carriers, and near‑port warehousing can mitigate these frictions. (Research and Markets, 2025)

• Environmental policy in California. SGMA‑driven water limits introduce long‑run constraints and cost uplifts in almond production. This elevates the strategic importance of efficiency (micro‑irrigation, drought‑tolerant varieties) and could shift marginal acres out of almonds, tempering supply growth and keeping input prices from collapsing. Flour makers should anticipate a structurally higher cost base upstream relative to the pre‑SGMA expansion era. (Klein, 2024)

5) Pricing and margins: a practical outlook for 2025–2027

• Expect stable‑to‑firm input costs. With wholesale almond prices rebounding to >$2.40/lb and forecasts for stabilization near current levels, almond flour manufacturers should plan around raw material costs higher than 2022–2023 troughs but below the 2014 spike. The easing of extreme carryouts and the first acreage declines in decades both argue against a renewed glut. (Klein, 2024)

• Pass‑through and mix strategies. Given consumer willingness to pay in gluten‑free and specialty baking, modest shelf price adjustments and trade‑down resistant SKUs (e.g., blanched, fine‑milled flour for patisserie, bakery mixes) can partially offset kernel inflation. Emphasizing performance attributes (crumb, moisture retention) alongside health claims underpins pricing power in bakery. Industry research consistently identifies bakery as the largest almond flour application—a segment that tolerates value‑added premiums. (Research and Markets, 2031)

• Margin resilience via by‑product valorization. Milling generates fines, skins (if blanching), and other side streams. Applying circular economy principles—using these materials in food, feed, or energy—can lower effective cost per unit and appeal to sustainability‑minded buyers. Peer‑reviewed evidence links valorization with both waste minimization and competitiveness in agri‑food systems. (Almond By‑Products: Valorization…, 2021)

6) Segment and regional dynamics

• Bakery remains the anchor. Across multiple datasets, bakery applications (breads, cakes, pastries, cookies, mixes) are cited as the largest and most durable almond flour use‑case, reflecting functional performance (texture, moisture), dietary fit, and recipe familiarity among home bakers and commercial users alike. (Research and Markets, 2031)

• North America leads, but global growth broadens. North America’s central role in keto/low‑carb gluten‑free bakery consumption positions it as the largest almond flour region. Meanwhile, international market development—especially where e‑commerce and health consciousness are rising—extends runway in Europe and parts of Asia‑Pacific. Industry reports foresee expanding reach into emerging markets as awareness and incomes grow. (Nutritional Quality of Gluten-Free Bakery Products…, 2022; Research and Markets, 2031)

• Product form and type. Segmentation by type—natural vs. blanched—and grind granularity matters in end‑use performance (e.g., pastry vs. bread vs. coatings). Reports emphasize that product portfolio breadth (including mixes) improves competitive positioning as bakers seek consistency and convenience. (Straits Research, 2023)

7) Strategic implications and recommendations

Given the above dynamics, almond flour participants can take several concrete actions:

• Secure kernels with balanced risk sharing. Use multi‑year supply agreements with growers/shellers that include price bands tied to published indices. This protects both sides against extremes while allowing participation in cyclical improvements. Where feasible, co‑investment or vertical integration in processing can further stabilize costs. (Klein, 2024)

• Prioritize bakery‑centric innovation. Reinforce presence in the highest‑velocity categories (breads, pastries, cookies, mixes) with SKUs targeting clean‑label, keto, and gluten‑free shoppers. Publish functional specs (absorption, particle size distribution) to win with commercial bakers who demand repeatable performance. (Nutritional Quality of Gluten-Free Bakery Products…, 2022)

• Differentiate on sustainability. Document water stewardship in supply chains and highlight by‑product valorization in packaging and B2B materials. Collaborate with growers employing efficient irrigation and cite circular economy outcomes (e.g., hulls to feed/energy, skins to fiber or extracts). (Almond By‑Products: Valorization…, 2021)

• Build channel resilience. Balance grocery distribution with DTC/e‑commerce for margin and data advantages. Use digital channels to test limited editions and bundles (e.g., flavored or fortified almond flours) and to hedge against retail resets. Industry commentary notes changing retail dynamics and the importance of adapting to these shifts. (Research and Markets, 2025)

• Maintain operational agility. Given tariff and logistics uncertainties, diversify freight options, implement safety stocks for peak seasons, and codify regulatory compliance (labeling, allergen, organic certifications) to avoid costly disruptions. (Research and Markets, 2025)

8) Risks and watch‑items

• Weather and water shocks in California that compress yields more than anticipated, lifting kernel prices.
• Renewed port or Red Sea–linked shipping disruptions that affect export flows and container availability.
• Consumer trade‑down if inflation accelerates, particularly in premium baking categories, which could pressure pricing power.
• Regulatory changes in labeling or allergen management that increase compliance burden in key markets. (Klein, 2024; Research and Markets, 2025)

Conclusion: a measured bull case, disciplined by upstream realities

The almond flour category benefits from durable consumer trends—gluten‑free baking, keto/low‑carb diets, clean‑label preferences—and enjoys strong anchor segments (bakery) and leading regions (North America). Independently compiled market estimates cluster around a 7–9% global CAGR through 2031–2035. Upstream, California’s almond sector is transitioning from oversupply to balance: carryouts are receding, acreage has turned down for the first time in decades, and wholesale prices have recovered from a 20‑year low. Policy‑driven water constraints and normalized exports should keep kernel prices stable‑to‑firm relative to 2022–2023, arguing for prudent procurement and value‑added positioning by flour producers. My net assessment is constructive: almond flour demand will rise steadily, but economic value will accrue disproportionately to operators who secure supply, optimize mix toward bakery and premium performance, and monetize by‑products to absorb input volatility. The era of easy growth on the back of surplus almonds is over; the next phase will reward operational discipline and brand‑led differentiation. (Klein, 2024; Nutritional Quality of Gluten-Free Bakery Products…, 2022; Almond By‑Products: Valorization…, 2021; Research and Markets, 2031)

References

• Klein, K. (2024, July 11). ‘Farming is a gamble.’ In California’s almond boom and bust, growers are hoping for a rebound. KVPR. https://www.kvpr.org/business-economy/2024-07-11/farming-is-a-gamble-in-californias-almond-boom-and-bust-growers-are-hoping-for-a-rebound

• Almond By‑Products: Valorization for Sustainability and Competitiveness of the Industry. (2021). Foods (MDPI). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8394390/

• Nutritional Quality of Gluten‑Free Bakery Products Labeled Ketogenic and/or Low‑Carb Sold in the Global Market. (2022). Nutrients. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9778343/

• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 Almond Flour Market Report – Industry Size, Competition, Trends and Growth Opportunities by Region – Forecast by Types and Applications (2024–2032). https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srsltid=AfmBOornPrJAtLSZ4Qg0BjSgY7OTQpzV_-hhwsmnzZZMm4bi-D3XsMNV

• Research and Markets. (n.d.). Almond Flour Market Report: Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis to 2031. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5988997/almond-flour-market-report-trends-forecast?srslit=AfmBOoowbECzq95XrjwAme7KP9IfQyrWQFTunjv6Afag_UhvZXSoqDmQ

• Future Market Insights Inc. (2025, July 28). The rising factor: Almond flour market projected to reach USD 4.88 billion by 2035 amid surging health trends. OpenPR. https://www.openpr.com/news/4122413/the-rising-factor-almond-flour-market-projected-to-reach-usd

• Straits Research. (2023). Almond Flour Market Growth, Trends and Forecast to 2031. https://straitsresearch.com/report/almond-flour-market

• Expert Market Research. (2024). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Growth | 2034. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-market?srslti=AfmBOoqh5B6WUtCHa8a_zynyMKpqyA_P5JO--tX5daC3vRAfQ0R_7wNm

• Allied Market Research. (2020). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Growth | Report Forecast 2027. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/almond-flour-market-A06392

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected growth rate for almond flour demand through the early 2030s?

Almond flour demand is expected to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit CAGR, approximately between 7% to 9%, driven primarily by bakery applications and increasing consumption in North America.

How have almond prices fluctuated recently, and what does this mean for almond flour producers?

Wholesale almond prices have rebounded from below $2.00/lb in late 2022 to over $2.40/lb in mid-2024. This stabilization suggests that almond flour producers will face higher input costs than the lows of 2022–2023, impacting their milling margins.

What are the implications of California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) for almond flour production?

SGMA imposes constraints on groundwater use, which could lead to higher production costs and limit supply expansion in the long run. Almond flour manufacturers should prepare for a structurally higher cost base and consider securing supply contracts to mitigate yield risks.

How does the almond flour market compare regionally, particularly between North America and other regions?

North America is the leading market for almond flour, largely due to its strong gluten-free and low-carb bakery consumption. However, emerging markets in Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific are also expected to grow as health consciousness and e-commerce penetration increase.

What consumer trends are driving the demand for almond flour?

Key consumer trends include the rising popularity of gluten-free, keto, and low-carb diets, along with a strong focus on health and wellness. These trends are reinforced by the increasing availability of almond flour in various bakery applications, which cater to health-conscious consumers.

How can almond flour producers maintain margins in the face of rising input costs?

Producers can implement pricing strategies that reflect consumer willingness to pay for gluten-free and specialty products, while also focusing on product mix and operational efficiencies. Additionally, valorizing by-products from milling can help lower effective costs and enhance sustainability.

What risks should almond flour producers be aware of in the coming years?

Producers should monitor potential weather and water shocks in California, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and changes in consumer behavior due to inflation. Regulatory changes regarding labeling and allergen management could also increase compliance burdens and operational costs.