• The global almond flour market is projected to reach USD 6.19 billion by 2035, growing at an 8.6% CAGR from USD 2.5 billion in 2024, with household use dominating and foodservice as the fastest-growing segment.
• Key value chain nodes include farm production, processing, and distribution, with emphasis on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and rigorous quality controls to mitigate risks related to water dependency and contamination.
• By-product valorization is critical; utilizing almond processing waste (hulls, skins, etc.) can enhance sustainability and profitability while addressing climate goals through renewable energy initiatives.
• Firms that proactively assess nature-related risks and invest in water stewardship, automation, and circular economy strategies will likely outperform competitors in cost management and brand trust.

Value Chain & Supply Chain Map (farm → end-use)

Product: Almond Flour

Executive summary

• The almond flour value chain comprises five core nodes: farm/orchard production, primary post-harvest processing (hulling/shelling), secondary processing at almond mills (cleaning, blanching or unblanched routing, grinding/sifting), distribution logistics, and end-use (household, foodservice, industrial). Each node has distinct quality, safety, sustainability, and monetization levers that determine overall competitiveness (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).
• Market momentum is robust: global almond flour value is estimated at about USD 2.5 billion in 2024 with an 8.6% CAGR projected through 2035, potentially reaching USD 6.19 billion. Household is the largest end-use today; foodservice is the fastest-growing, driven by gluten-free and better-for-you menu adoption (Market Research Future, 2025).
• The most resilient value chains align Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), precision agriculture, and water stewardship upstream with rigorous sorting/cleaning, hygienic design, and clear CCPs midstream—especially where blanching and fine grinding elevate microbiological and foreign-material risks (Almond Board of California/UC Davis, 2009; Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).
• Circularity is a material value driver: hulls, shells, skins, blanch water, and partially delipidified almond flour (PDAF) present feed, biomass, ingredient, and renewable energy pathways that reduce waste and improve margins while addressing climate goals (Ferreira et al., 2021; Future Market Insights, 2025).
• Nature-related risks—especially water dependency and pollinator health in California—remain the principal structural bottlenecks. Firms that integrate nature-risk assessments, diversify sourcing, and invest in regenerative and precision irrigation will outperform on cost, continuity, and brand trust (TNFD, n.d.).

My view: the highest-return interventions in 2025–2030 are (1) upstream water/stewardship and pollination risk mitigation, (2) midstream automation for defect removal and hygienic controls, and (3) systemic by-product valorization that converts waste streams into revenue and energy. These three levers jointly increase resilience and margin, while aligning with regulatory and consumer expectations.

Industry context and demand drivers

Almond flour rides multiple secular trends: gluten-free and low-carb diets, growth in plant-forward formulations, and home baking. The category’s versatility (blanched, unblanched, organic/conventional) and the expansion of retail and online channels have widened accessibility and adoption. Against this backdrop, market analyses estimate global almond flour at USD 2.50 billion in 2024 and foresee an 8.6% CAGR through 2035 to USD 6.19 billion, with household dominating current share and foodservice contributing the highest CAGR as restaurants and bakeries scale gluten-free options (Market Research Future, 2025). Complementary analyses characterize the sector as fragmented but opportunity-rich for SMEs innovating in niche formats and integrated dry-roasting and processing lines (Straits Research, 2023).

Almond mills serve as the backbone of this transformation—securing raw almonds, elevating quality via sorting/cleaning, and converting kernels into premium ingredients, including fine milled almond flour. Sustainability is increasingly central to mill strategy, including renewable energy use and water optimization in collaboration with growers (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

End-to-end value chain map

Value chain flow (farm → end-use)

1. Orchard production (California, Spain, Australia, others): cultivation, irrigation, pollination, integrated pest management, GAP adherence.
2. Harvest and primary post-harvest: orchard shaking/sweeping, hulling/shelling; segregation of hulls/shells (by-products).
3. Secondary processing at almond mills: procurement, inspection, sorting, cleaning; blanching (skin removal) or unblanched route; roasting (where applicable); grinding/milling to flour; sifting, quality testing, packaging.
4. Distribution logistics: ambient warehousing, temperature/humidity controls as needed, route-to-market execution (retail/online/foodservice/industrial).
5. End-use applications: household (home baking/cooking), foodservice (bakeries, restaurants), industrial (CPG, meal replacements, snacks), plus specialty/cosmetics for certain fractions (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025; Data Bridge Market Research, 2024).

Value chain by node: activities, controls, by-products, risks

Sourcing, sorting, and cleaning are the first major quality gate, followed by the blanching/grinding/sifting train where hygienic design, sieving integrity, and environmental monitoring carry outsized importance. These steps are emphasized in mill-level overviews and are consistent with industry practice for nut ingredients (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

Upstream: orchards and Good Agricultural Practices (GAP)

Almond flour quality starts in the orchard. Good Agricultural Practices for almond growers—codified by the Almond Board of California and UC Davis—prioritize water management, manure/compost handling, wildlife intrusion mitigation, worker hygiene training, and robust documentation and traceability. These controls reduce contamination risks (e.g., Salmonella, E. coli), especially when nuts contact the ground during harvest. GAP guidance also addresses pre-harvest intervals and sanitation of equipment, recognizing the connection between field practices and downstream processing risk (Almond Board of California/UC Davis, 2009).

Sustainability pressures are acute in Californian almonds: water scarcity, drought cycles, and pollinator health (Apis mellifera) are material risk factors that can disrupt volumes and raise costs. A nature-risk lens applied to value chains highlights the need for precision irrigation, soil health strategies, and pollinator habitat support to stabilize yields and reputations. Enterprises that quantify these dependencies and exposures, then operationalize mitigation, are better positioned for continuity and cost management (TNFD, n.d.).

From a supply continuity standpoint, diversified sourcing—California complemented by Spain and Australia—can mitigate regional shocks while maintaining specification and sensory consistency. Collaboration contracts with growers (price, quality specs, water stewardship commitments) help mills secure predictable supply aligned to downstream customer claims (e.g., organic, non-GMO) (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

Midstream: from kernels to almond flour

Intake, sorting, cleaning

Mill operations begin with verified procurement and sampling. The intake stream undergoes multiple defenses: mechanical and optical sorting for defect and foreign material (sticks, stones), metal detection, and manual inspection. This gate ensures only conforming kernels proceed, protecting both equipment and finished-product quality (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

Blanching vs unblanched routing, grinding, and sifting

Almond flour is produced via two primary routes:

• Blanched almond flour: skins are removed (typically via hot water blanching and peeling), producing a lighter color, milder taste, and finer texture well-suited for pastries and macarons.
• Unblanched (natural) almond flour: retains skins, contributing fiber, a speckled appearance, and a heartier flavor preferred in some bakery and snack formats.

Subsequent fine grinding/milling and sifting create predictable granulations for application performance. Process control points include time/temperature management, sieve integrity checks, allergen and cross-contact control, and environmental monitoring in dry processing areas. Proper hygienic design and airflow management are vital, given nut flours are low-moisture, low-water-activity foods where sanitation must prevent biofilm harborage and dust accumulation (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025; Data Bridge Market Research, 2024).

By-products and circularity in the mill

Blanched skins, blanch water, and fines are significant side streams. According to a comprehensive review, almond by-products (skins, hulls, shells, blanch water) are rich in lignocellulosic material and bioactives, enabling valorization as food ingredients, biomass, feed, and materials. PDAF (partially delipidified almond flour) from oil extraction is used in traditional bakery (e.g., “almendrados”), illustrating ingredient diversification potential. Harnessing these streams improves both sustainability metrics and P&L via waste minimization and new product lines (Ferreira et al., 2021).

Leading manufacturers are also piloting renewable energy pathways for almond by-products. For example, industry reporting highlights partnerships that convert processing residues into energy—helping meet climate goals and improve operational efficiency—thereby linking midstream waste streams to downstream decarbonization roadmaps (Future Market Insights, 2025).

Packaging, storage, and release

Final steps include moisture control, oxygen exposure management, lot coding, and labeling compliance for allergens. Finished-product verification (micro, moisture, granulation) and COAs precede release. Ambient storage in clean, low-humidity conditions preserves quality and shelf life, with FIFO/FEFO ensuring freshness (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

Downstream: distribution channels and end-use segments

Distribution has diversified across:

• Retail/offline (supermarkets, hypermarkets, specialty health stores),
• Online platforms (direct-to-consumer and marketplaces),
• Foodservice providers (bakeries, restaurants, cafés),
• Industrial customers (CPG makers of bakery, snacks, meal replacements).

Household remains the leading end-use by volume (home baking/cooking), while the foodservice segment is the fastest-growing by CAGR as commercial kitchens adopt gluten-free and better-for-you formulations. Broader retailer availability and online convenience accelerate adoption globally (Market Research Future, 2025).

Product and channel structure

Food safety and quality control spine

Almond mills apply a prevention-first approach across the process:

• Supplier verification and intake testing to ensure raw quality aligns with specification (size, moisture, defect rates).
• Multi-stage sorting and cleaning to remove foreign materials and defective kernels.
• If blanching or roasting are applied, time-temperature controls, validation/verification, and environmental monitoring reduce microbial hazards.
• Grinding and sifting require hygienic design, dust control, allergen management, and sieve integrity checks to prevent metal/dross and maintain uniformity.
• Packaging and storage maintain moisture barriers, prevent rancidity, and ensure labeling compliance.

These steps reflect the sector’s alignment with HACCP principles, integrated with orchard-level GAP to mitigate upstream microbial risks, and with sustainability programs to address water and energy intensity (Almond Board of California/UC Davis, 2009; Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

Circularity: by-product valorization and decarbonization

Almond processing produces heterogeneous by-products: hulls, shells, skins, blanch water, fines. The literature identifies multiple high-value pathways:

• Biomass and energy: shells/hulls used as biofuel or feedstock.
• Ingredients: skins as sources of bioactive compounds; PDAF as a bakery ingredient.
• Materials: lignocellulosic applications leveraging shell structure.

Scaling these uses supports a circular economy while reducing waste and improving cost structures. Industry examples include converting processing by-products into renewable energy, aligning with state-level climate targets and offering mills an efficiency edge (Ferreira et al., 2021; Future Market Insights, 2025).

Risk and resilience lens

Nature-related risks (upstream concentration)

• Water scarcity and regulatory shifts in California increase cost and yield volatility.
• Pollinator health and climate variability complicate predictability.
• Soil health degradation raises input needs and undermines long-term productivity.

Practical mitigations include precision irrigation, on-farm recharge where feasible, habitat stewardship for pollinators, and diversified sourcing across geographies. Firms integrating nature-risk assessment into procurement and capital planning will face fewer supply shocks and brand risks (TNFD, n.d.).

Operational and quality risks (midstream)

• Foreign materials and sieve failures leading to physical hazards.
• Environmental contamination in low-moisture environments without rigorous dry sanitation.
• Allergen mislabeling or cross-contact in mixed facilities.

Mitigations hinge on investment in optical/metal detection, robust maintenance and changeover protocols, air/dust management, and strong QA sign-offs before release (Berkeley Learning Platform, 2025).

Market and channel risks (downstream)

• Demand elasticity due to price premiums versus wheat flour.
• E-commerce and logistics disruptions influencing freshness and availability.
• Regulatory updates on labeling, organic claims, and sustainability disclosures.

Channel diversification, inventory agility (FEFO), and clear sustainability communications mitigate these risks (Market Research Future, 2025).

Governance, KPIs, and traceability

To manage the value chain end-to-end, leading operators align metrics with risk and value:

• Orchard-level: water-use efficiency (kg almonds per m³), pollination outcomes, soil organic matter, GAP audit scores.
• Intake/mill: defect rate after sorting, FM incidents, CCP conformance, environmental monitoring results, yield-to-spec, rework rate.
• Distribution: order fill rate, temperature excursion incidence, damage claims.
• Sustainability/circularity: by-product utilization rate, energy from waste (%), GHG intensity per ton flour, % certified organic.
• Commercial: OTIF, returns, customer complaint rate, channel mix, contribution margin by SKU.

Digitally enabling lot-level traceability from orchard to pack—linking field blocks to mill batches and COAs—reduces recall scope and strengthens brand trust. This is increasingly expected by advanced retail and foodservice buyers and aligns with the push toward sustainable supply chain disclosures (Almond Board of California/UC Davis, 2009; TNFD, n.d.).

My conclusions and prioritized actions

• Opinion: In the next five years, the almond flour leaders will be those that simultaneously (a) de-risk water and pollination at the orchard tier, (b) elevate midstream process capability for consistent fine granulations with impeccable hygiene in dry environments, and (c) monetize by-products—especially skins and energy from residues—into meaningful margin and Scope 1/2 decarbonization. This triad will differentiate cost curves and supply assurance.

• Recommended priorities:

  1. Expand grower partnerships tied to measurable water stewardship, soil health, and pollinator outcomes; integrate these metrics into procurement scoring and premiums.
  2. Invest in sorting automation, hygienic design for dry milling, and environmental monitoring programs mapped to risk; validate blanching or lethality steps where used.
  3. Build a circularity roadmap: valorize skins and blanch water into food/functional ingredients where feasible; evaluate co-gen or third-party offtake of hulls/shells; pilot PDAF-based SKUs.
  4. Deepen channel balance: continue retail/online penetration while targeting foodservice operators with stable granulation specs and culinary support—given foodservice’s higher growth trajectory.
  5. Institutionalize nature-risk assessment using frameworks aligned with investor expectations, strengthening disclosures and supporting capital access.

Properly executed, these actions turn today’s headline risks—water, climate, and cost—into capabilities that compound competitive advantage across the almond flour value chain.

References

• Almond Board of California; University of California, Davis. (2009). Addendum III to GMA Nut Industry Handbook: Good Agricultural Practices for Almond Growers (2009 Edition). UC Davis Food Safety. https://ucfoodsafety.ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/dgvnsk7366/files/inline-files/261406.pdf

• Berkeley Learning Platform. (2025). Almond Mils – Berkeley Learning Platform. University of California, Berkeley. https://lms-dev.api.berkeley.edu/almond-mils

• Data Bridge Market Research. (2024). Almond Flour Market – Global Market – Industry Trends and Forecast to 2029. Data Bridge Market Research. https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-almond-flour-market?srsltid=AfmBOopS_RtvQo2IVJsQpIE34DSFi-8Q8QRWcsp_nXuz0gKnAjJOJ5q4F

• Ferreira, M. S. L., Santos, D. I., Saraiva, J. M. A., & Cunha, M. G. C. (2021). Almond By-Products: Valorization for Sustainability and Competitiveness of the Industry. Foods, 10(8), 1796. National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8394390/

• Future Market Insights. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Market Research Future. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Trends, Industry Reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860

• Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). (n.d.). Nature-related issues in agribusiness value chains: The case for Californian almonds. TNFD Knowledge Bank. https://tnfd.global/knowledge-bank/nature-related-issues-in-agribusiness-value-chains_the-case-for-californian-almonds/

• Straits Research. (2023). Almond Flour Market Growth, Trends and Forecast to 2031. Straits Research. https://straitsresearch.com/report/almond-flour-market

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key nodes in the almond flour value chain?

The almond flour value chain consists of five core nodes: farm/orchard production, primary post-harvest processing, secondary processing at almond mills, distribution logistics, and end-use applications. Each node plays a critical role in ensuring quality, safety, and sustainability throughout the supply chain.

How is the almond flour market projected to grow in the coming years?

The global almond flour market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% through 2035, potentially reaching USD 6.19 billion. The household segment currently dominates the market, while the foodservice segment is expected to grow the fastest.

What are the main risks associated with almond production?

Key risks in almond production include water scarcity, pollinator health, and climate variability, particularly in California, which is a major almond-producing region. Firms that implement nature-risk assessments and invest in sustainable practices are more likely to mitigate these risks effectively.

How do almond mills ensure product quality and safety?

Almond mills employ a multi-stage quality control process that includes supplier verification, optical sorting, and rigorous cleaning to eliminate foreign materials and defective kernels. Additionally, they implement time-temperature controls during blanching and grinding to prevent microbial hazards.

What by-products are generated during almond processing, and how are they utilized?

Almond processing generates several by-products, including hulls, shells, skins, and blanch water. These by-products can be valorized for various applications such as animal feed, biofuels, and food ingredients, contributing to sustainability and reducing waste.

What are the main end-use applications for almond flour?

Almond flour is used across various end-use applications, including household cooking and baking, foodservice in restaurants and bakeries, and industrial uses in consumer packaged goods (CPG) such as meal replacements and snacks. The household segment currently leads in volume, while foodservice shows the highest growth potential.

How can companies improve their resilience in the almond flour supply chain?

Companies can enhance resilience by diversifying sourcing strategies, investing in sustainable agricultural practices, and implementing advanced processing technologies. Additionally, focusing on by-product valorization and maintaining robust quality controls can help mitigate risks and improve operational efficiency.