• California dominates global almond flour production, accounting for 77% of the 1.45 million metric tons produced in 2023/24, with projections indicating a 13% increase to 1.6 million tons in 2024/25.

• Incremental capacity growth is expected over the next 3-5 years, focusing on debottlenecking existing facilities rather than large new mills, due to supply-side constraints like water availability and pollination logistics.

• Regional milling capacity is rising in Australia and Spain to enhance supply resilience and reduce freight costs, while Asia-Pacific shows the fastest growth in demand for almond flour, albeit with limited local production capabilities.

• Strategic investments in coproduct valorization and energy integration will be critical for processors to improve unit economics and sustainability, ensuring continued investment in almond flour production despite raw supply challenges.

Almond Flour Production Geography & Capacity

Executive summary

Almond flour production capacity is increasingly concentrated in a few geographies tightly coupled to raw almond supply, led overwhelmingly by California in the United States, followed by Australia and Spain. On the demand side, North America and Europe remain the core end markets for almond ingredients, with accelerating growth in Asia–Pacific from a relatively low base. Supply-side constraints—especially water availability, pollination logistics, and orchard acreage dynamics in California—will shape how fast flour capacity can expand over the next 3–5 years.

My evidence-based view is that near-term capacity growth will remain measured rather than explosive: processors will prioritize incremental debottlenecking (new milling lines, better conveyance, improved storage) and value capture (premium grades, blanching, fine-ground fractions) over large greenfield plants, while geographic diversification of milling will increase modestly in Australia and Europe to improve supply resilience and lower freight-to-market costs. By-product valorization (skins, shells, hulls) and energy integration will become increasingly important for unit economics and sustainability, supporting continued investment in the category even if raw supply growth is constrained. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025; Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021; Wikipedia, 2025; Ag Council, 2017; AgNet West, 2025; PACT Capital, 2025)

Scope and sources

This report synthesizes peer-reviewed reviews on almond coproducts and industry context, official and semi-official production statistics as reported within those reviews, encyclopedic summaries, and documented processor capacity developments. Priority is given to trusted and recent sources (USDA-cited figures reported in 2024/25; peer-reviewed reviews on PMC). Trade-press and market-research estimates are used cautiously to illuminate directional market dynamics for the almond flour segment. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025; Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021; Wikipedia, 2025; Ag Council, 2017; AgNet West, 2025; PACT Capital, 2025)

1) Global almond supply context (why it matters for flour capacity)

Scale and trajectory

• On a shelled-kernel basis, global almond production in 2023/24 was approximately 1.45 million metric tons, with the United States providing 77% (about 1.12 million tons). USDA-linked projections signal a 13% increase to 1.6 million tons in 2024/25 (shelled), with consumption broadly keeping pace and exports rising on EU, China, and India demand. This kernel-basis framing is directly relevant to flour capacity because almond flour is milled from kernels (often blanched), not in-shell nuts. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

Geography of raw supply

• The United States (California) dominates the supply base.
• Australia (Murray River corridor) and Spain follow, with Spain holding the largest almond area in the EU but lower average yields.
• Portugal recorded 69,510 tons in 2023, reflecting rapid Iberian growth.
• Co-location of milling capacity with these supply nodes materially reduces peeling/blanching losses during transit, improves freshness, and cuts freight on mass balance. (Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021; Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

Basis differences

• On an in-shell basis, FAO data (via Wikipedia) shows 2022 world output at 3.6 million tonnes; California at 1.86 million, Australia ~0.36 million, Spain ~0.246 million.
• The difference versus kernel-basis totals underscores why plant-scale planning for flour capacity should rely on shelled-kernel supply metrics. (Wikipedia, 2025)

2025 harvest uncertainty and implications

• USDA’s initial 2025 California forecast is cited variously as 2.8–3.0 billion pounds (in-shell weight), but expert lender commentary highlights potential overestimation, given orchard removals and SGMA-linked water constraints.
• For processors, this argues for flexible capacity utilization, inventory management, and hedged sourcing rather than aggressive overbuild. (AgNet West, 2025; PACT Capital, 2025)

Table 1. Global almond supply signals relevant to flour capacity

Sources: USDA-linked figures as reported in peer-reviewed review (2024/25 projection; 2023/24 shares); FAO/Wikipedia in-shell totals for 2022. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025; Wikipedia, 2025)

2) Where almond flour is produced today

North America (California-centric)

• The overwhelming majority of industrial-scale almond flour capacity is integrated into California’s almond processing ecosystem.
• Large cooperatives and ingredient suppliers operate blanching, skinning, slicing/dicing, and milling lines, often on or near hulling/shelling sites.
• Blue Diamond Growers—world’s largest almond processor—expanded its Salida (CA) complex with a new enclosed conveyance system and additional almond flour milling capability, alongside 60 million pounds of storage. This is a practical, documented example of incremental capacity build aligned to raw supply and food safety. (Ag Council, 2017)

Europe (Spain-led processing, broader EU demand)

• Spain’s vast orchard area and proximity to EU demand hubs support regional processing of blanching-grade kernels into flour, reducing trans-Atlantic freight on lower-value fractions and aligning with EU clean-label and organic trends.
• A significant share of flour used in European bakery and specialty products is either imported as kernels and milled locally or imported as finished flour from California; the balance is shifting toward more regional milling where supply chains and certifications align. (Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021)

Australia (Murray River corridor)

• Australia’s consolidated orchards along the Murray River corridor (New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia) underpin growing regional ingredient processing.
• While much kernel output still ships to Asia and Europe, capacities for slicing, paste, and flour are logically co-developing to capture value locally and reduce export of raw kernels, especially for nearby Asia–Pacific customers. (Wikipedia, 2025)

Asia–Pacific (demand-led, import-dependent)

• Asia’s flour usage is expanding rapidly, but milling is often colocated with major import nodes (e.g., China, India), or flour is imported finished from California/Europe.
• Local milling remains constrained by limited domestic almond supply; thus, capacity grows primarily as toll-milling at ports or as part of ingredient blenders’ facilities.
• Directionally, the region is the fastest-growing consumer market for gluten-free and low-carb baking ingredients, raising the incentive for in-region milling over the decade. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

3) Capacity: what is installed, what is expanding, and why

Installed and incremental capacity

• California’s integrated complexes. Facilities like Blue Diamond’s Salida and Turlock plants integrate cleaning, sorting, blanching, and milling. The 2017 expansion added a dedicated almond flour processing line and a custom enclosed conveyance system, improving throughput efficiency and food safety controls while offering gentle handling needed for premium fine-ground grades. Although the public report did not disclose line-rate throughput, the storage expansion to ~60 million pounds (27,000+ metric tons) underscores scale and inventory buffering to manage seasonal supply and continuous demand. (Ag Council, 2017)

• Debottlenecking over greenfield. Given raw supply uncertainty (water and acreage constraints) and capital costs, industry behavior favors modular expansions—adding blanchers, fine grinders, classifiers, or packaging cells—to raise capacity by double-digit percentages, rather than building entirely new mills. This yields better ROI if harvests underperform initial forecasts and aligns with buyer preferences for validated food-safety systems and stable organoleptics. (PACT Capital, 2025)

• Ingredient grade proliferation. Capacity is also “effective” in the sense of flexibility—plants increasingly toggle between almond meal, natural flour (skin-on), blanched flour, and ultra-fine fractions for macarons and pastries. The product-mix flexibility increases practical capacity utilization across seasons and customers, dampening the need for raw tonnage growth to raise revenues. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

Demand-side pull and market sizing

• Almond flour market growth. Multiple syndicated research outlets estimate robust growth in almond flour demand through 2030–2035, driven by gluten-free baking, low-carb/keto, and clean-label preferences, especially in North America and Europe, with faster growth in India and China from smaller bases. These directional signals are consistent with observed processor behavior (line additions, packaging SKUs). However, such datasets are proprietary and vary in methodology; they should be treated as directional rather than definitive for capacity sizing. (Future Market Insights, 2025; Mordor Intelligence, 2024/2025)

• EU demand and sustainability drivers. Europe’s strong preference for organic, clean-label, and plant-based foods supports almond flour uptake in artisan and industrial baking. The EU’s regulatory focus on traceability and allergens further increases the value of regional milling and dedicated allergen-controlled lines. (Mordor Intelligence, 2024/2025)

Supply-side constraints shaping capacity

• Water and acreage dynamics in California. After two decades of expansion, new plantings have plateaued or declined, and orchard removals have accelerated due to water constraints under California’s SGMA and economics of marginal orchards. This elevates the importance of yield improvements, better grading recovery, and minimizing processing losses to sustain flour output per acre. For millers, it favors capex that enhances yield (skin removal efficiency, milling finesse) over pure tonnage bets. (PACT Capital, 2025)

• Pollination logistics. Almond bloom in California requires an extraordinary mobilization of commercial beehives—more than half of the U.S. commercial honeybee population—which imposes biological and logistical risks. Pollination stress can translate into yield variability, adding another driver for conservative capacity expansion and stronger inventory planning by flour processors. (Wikipedia, 2025)

• By-product valorization and cost offsets. Skins (pellicles), blanching water, hulls, and shells comprise meaningful mass flows. High-value uses—from phenolic-rich extracts to dietary fiber concentrates—can offset processing costs and improve the business case for additional blanching and milling capacity. The academic literature documents antioxidant, antimicrobial, and nutraceutical potential of these side streams, supporting integrated biorefinery concepts adjacent to flour plants. I expect more plants to incorporate energy recovery and coproduct lines (e.g., skin-derived ingredients) to enhance margins. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025; Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021)

Table 2. Almond flour production geography and capacity signals (2025)

Sources: Peer-reviewed reviews for supply shares and country outputs; processor expansion example from trade press; EU demand patterns from industry analysis. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025; Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021; Ag Council, 2017; Mordor Intelligence, 2024/2025)

4) Technical and operational considerations for capacity planning

Product mix and process design

• Flour capacity is highly sensitive to whether product is natural (skin-on) vs. blanched (skin-off).
• Blanching adds a unit operation and by-product stream (skins) but yields whiter flour with neutral flavor that commands premium prices in bakery applications.
• Plants capable of both, with classifier systems to deliver multiple particle-size distributions, achieve higher utilization and customer diversification. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

Food safety and allergen controls

• Enclosed conveyance and gentle handling, as documented in the Salida plant upgrades, reduce breakage, dust, and cross-contact.
• For allergen-sensitive customers, dedicated lines and validated sanitation are capacity differentiators, not just compliance features. Investments here often precede headline “throughput” expansions but enable higher effective sales capacity (approved suppliers list access). (Ag Council, 2017)

Storage and seasonality bridging

• The 60 million pounds of additional storage cited in Salida exemplifies how inventory capacity pairs with milling to deliver year-round supply and price stability.
• Flour shelf-life is shorter than whole kernels due to fat content; therefore, just-in-time milling from buffered kernel inventory is a dominant operating model. (Ag Council, 2017)

Sustainability and energy integration

• Hulls and shells can be used for biomass energy, and blanching water can be treated and potentially valorized.
• Plants moving toward energy recovery and coproduct extraction reduce greenhouse gas intensity and unit costs, strengthening the case for capacity additions despite raw-supply headwinds. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

5) Outlook through 2028–2030: my grounded view

• Capacity growth will be positive but prudent. Given conflicting 2025 crop forecasts (2.8 vs. 3.0 billion lbs) and documented acreage contractions in California, I expect U.S. millers to continue modular investments (5–20% line-rate increases; new SKUs) rather than large greenfield mills. Australian and Iberian plants will capture more regional value but from a smaller base; Asia will add selective port-adjacent milling to de-risk supply chains. (AgNet West, 2025; PACT Capital, 2025; Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021)

• Mix shift toward blanched, finer grades. Bakery and confectionery applications will keep pulling blanched flour and ultra-fine specifications. Plants with strong blanching, de-skinning, and precision milling will see higher utilization and pricing power. By-product monetization (skins to fiber/extracts) will further support these lines. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025)

• Regionalization for resilience. Expect modest but real growth of EU- and Australia-based milling to shorten lead times and tailor to local regulatory/label needs, while California remains the anchor for global supply. Asia’s milling will rise mainly where raw kernel import streams and port infrastructure support consistent allergen-controlled operations. (Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021; Wikipedia, 2025)

Strategic implications

For processors:

• Invest in flexible, sanitary milling assets and classifier systems; prioritize blanching-line reliability and yield.
• Build coproduct capabilities (skin-derived ingredients; biomass energy) to strengthen unit economics.
• Expand storage for kernel buffering; maintain just-in-time milling to manage flour shelf-life.

For buyers (bakers, snack makers):

• Dual-source between California and an in-region mill where feasible to hedge harvest variability and logistics risks.
• Specify particle-size distributions and color profiles to leverage suppliers’ flexible capacity.
• Engage on sustainability claims that credibly incorporate coproduct valorization and energy integration.

For investors and policymakers:

• Support water efficiency and pollination health to stabilize raw supply.
• Encourage regional processing investments that reduce freight emissions and improve EU/Asia alignment on certifications.
• Fund research translating bioactive-rich by-products into commercial food or nutraceutical ingredients, improving overall plant viability.

Conclusion

Almond flour’s production geography is anchored in California, with emergent, strategically important nodes in Spain/Portugal and Australia and a growing demand pull from Asia–Pacific. The next phase is characterized by smart, modular capacity growth, deeper integration of coproduct valorization, and regionalization sufficient to improve resilience—rather than wholesale relocation away from California. This balance reflects both the realities of agronomic constraints and the steady, broad-based demand for gluten-free and clean-label baking ingredients. In short: capacity will grow, but intelligently and incrementally, with California as the cornerstone and complementary regional mills expanding to serve local markets and regulatory contexts. (Almond By-Products Review, 2025; Almond By-Products Valorization, 2021; Ag Council, 2017; Wikipedia, 2025)

References

• Almond Board of California/USDA-linked estimates cited within: Almond By-Products: A Comprehensive Review of Composition, Bioactivities, and Influencing Factors. (2025). Foods. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11941897/

• Almond By-Products: Valorization for Sustainability and Competitiveness of the Industry. (2021). Foods. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8394390/

• Agricultural Council of California. (2017, August 15). Members in the News | Blue Diamond Adds New Production Line. Agricultural Council of California. https://agcouncil.org/allied-members/

• AgNet West. (2025). Almond Update: Initial 2025 Almond Production Forecast. AgNet West. https://agnetwest.com/almond-update-initial-2025-almond-production-forecast/

• Mordor Intelligence. (2024–2025). Almond Ingredients Market Size, Forecast Report | Industry Report 2030. Mordor Intelligence. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/almond-ingredients-market

• PACT Capital. (2025, July 23). USDA’s 2025 Almond Estimate: A Lender’s Perspective. PACT Capital. https://www.pactcap.com/usdas-2025-almond-estimate-a-lenders-perspective/

• Future Market Insights. (2025, July 4). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Wikipedia contributors. (2025). Almond. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almond

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the primary regions for almond flour production?

The primary regions for almond flour production are California in the United States, Australia, and Spain. California accounts for approximately 77% of global almond production, with Australia and Spain serving as significant secondary sources.

How much almond flour capacity is expected to grow in the next few years?

Near-term capacity growth for almond flour is expected to be measured, with processors focusing on incremental improvements rather than large-scale expansions. Current projections suggest a growth rate of 5–20% in line-rate increases rather than the establishment of new mills.

What factors are influencing almond flour supply constraints?

Key factors influencing almond flour supply constraints include water availability, pollination logistics, and orchard acreage dynamics in California. These constraints are expected to temper raw supply growth, leading processors to prioritize yield improvements and operational efficiencies.

How does the almond flour market vary by region?

North America and Europe are the core markets for almond flour, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region from a lower base. The demand in Asia is driven by gluten-free and low-carb trends, although local milling capacity remains limited, leading to reliance on imports.

What is the significance of by-product valorization in almond flour production?

By-product valorization, such as utilizing almond skins and hulls, is becoming increasingly important for improving unit economics and sustainability in almond flour production. This practice can offset processing costs and enhance the overall viability of almond processing facilities.

How does storage capacity impact almond flour production?

Storage capacity plays a crucial role in almond flour production by allowing processors to manage seasonal supply and maintain price stability. For example, Blue Diamond's Salida facility has expanded its storage to approximately 60 million pounds, enabling just-in-time milling from buffered kernel inventory.

What trends are expected in almond flour demand through 2030?

Almond flour demand is projected to grow robustly through 2030, driven by trends in gluten-free baking, low-carb diets, and clean-label preferences. The strongest growth is anticipated in North America and Europe, with increasing demand also emerging from India and China.