• Supplier power in the almond flour market is high due to concentrated sourcing and raw material price volatility, necessitating long-term contracts and strategic partnerships to stabilize costs.
• The threat of substitutes is also high, with numerous gluten-free alternatives available, emphasizing the need for differentiation through superior functionality and nutritional benefits to maintain market share.
• Industry rivalry is moderate-high, driven by multiple established brands and price sensitivity linked to almond costs, highlighting the importance of innovation and effective marketing strategies to capture consumer interest.
• The almond flour market is projected to reach USD 1.21 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.2% from 2025 to 2034, driven by increasing demand for gluten-free and health-oriented products.

Porter’s Five Forces

Product: Almond Flour
Section: Strategic Analyses

Almond Flour: Porter’s Five Forces Assessment (2025)

Executive summary

• Overall force profile (my assessment): Supplier power: High; Threat of substitutes: High; Industry rivalry: Moderate–High; Buyer power: Moderate; Threat of new entrants: Moderate.
• Implications: Sustained growth in demand for gluten-free and “better-for-you” products supports market expansion, but concentrated almond supply, raw material price volatility, and abundant substitutes keep margins tight and reward firms that differentiate via quality, functionality, and compliance leadership. Consolidation among processors, strategic supplier relationships, and technology-enabled product differentiation (e.g., functional performance in baking) are the most defensible paths to advantage (Allied Market Research, 2025; Yahoo Finance, 2024).

Market context and sizing triangulation

Almond flour is a finely milled ingredient derived from almonds, widely used in gluten-free baking and better-for-you formulations. Market estimates vary by methodology: one 2025 industry analysis pegs the global market at USD 1.21 billion in 2024 with a 2025–2034 CAGR of about 9.2%, while another (press-release format) estimates USD 1.56 billion in 2024 with a 2024–2030 CAGR near 6.8% (Expert Market Research, 2025; Yahoo Finance, 2024). Regional concentration remains notable; for example, North America held about 36.8% share in 2019, with leading branded players including Blue Diamond Growers, Bob’s Red Mill, King Arthur, and others—indicating a competitive but established landscape (Allied Market Research, 2025).

Product attributes underpin demand. Almonds contain roughly 16–22% protein, a high share of unsaturated fats (~90% of total fat), and a complete essential amino acid profile, making almond flour attractive for nutrition-forward formulations and gluten-free baking performance (Enhancing Functional Properties of Almond Protein Isolate, 2024). Functional properties of almond proteins contribute to favorable textures in bakery applications, a core use case that sustains demand from both household and commercial buyers (Enhancing Functional Properties of Almond Protein Isolate, 2024).

Porter’s Five Forces: Summary matrix

Force 1 — Threat of new entrants: Moderate

• Barriers to entry. Almond flour production is not capital-prohibitive at artisanal scale, and e-commerce plus contract milling/packing lowers commercial access barriers. However, compliance and product stewardship matters—almond is a major allergen, and serious brands must support validated allergen detection and traceability, increasing operating sophistication and fixed costs. NIST developed RM 8404 Almond Flour as a matrix reference material for allergen detection, underscoring both regulatory scrutiny and the technical baseline expected in quality programs (NIST SP 260-218).

• Incumbent advantages. Established brands enjoy scale in almond procurement, blanching/sifting capability, distribution relationships, and trust signals (certifications, consistent granulation, and validated allergen controls). Market reviews explicitly list “capital needed,” “entry barriers,” and “regulatory compliance management” as factors, and note changing retail dynamics that favor data-driven, omnichannel execution, which new entrants must master quickly (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Net assessment. Entry is feasible but sustainable scaling requires capabilities in sourcing, compliance, and retail execution. Hence, threat is moderate.

Force 2 — Bargaining power of suppliers: High

• Raw material concentration and volatility. Almonds are the predominant input. Supplier power is elevated where almond supply is concentrated among specific regions and processor networks, and where contracts emphasize commodity-linked pricing. Several analyses explicitly enumerate “number of suppliers,” “capital needed,” and “raw material price fluctuations” as central determinants of input cost risk for almond flour manufacturers (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Named suppliers and integrators. Presence of large almond handlers/ingredient firms (e.g., Blue Diamond Growers, Olam International, Treehouse California Almonds) indicates a relatively concentrated upstream with professionalized contract terms, strengthening supplier leverage over smaller flour brands lacking scale (SkyQuest, 2025; Allied Market Research, 2025).

• Trade exposure. Tree nut shipment patterns illustrate that regional almond flows and export markets can influence availability and price, transmitting shocks to flour producers. Although the cited brief is broader than flour, it underscores dependence on upstream nut supply chains and trade conditions (USDA FAS, 2016).

• Net assessment. Supplier power remains high; mitigation hinges on longer-term contracts, partial vertical integration, and portfolio flexibility.

Force 3 — Bargaining power of buyers: Moderate

• Buyer structure. The market spans household consumers, craft bakeries, industrial bakeries, confectioners, and food manufacturers. This diversified base tempers buyer concentration. At the same time, the proliferation of online retail platforms increases price transparency and alternative choices for households, putting a ceiling on pricing power. Market commentary notes persistent narrow profit margins amid robust demand, as well as evolving retail dynamics—signals of meaningful buyer influence on price and mix (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Switching costs and differentiation. Functional performance differences between blanched and natural almond flour (e.g., color, flavor, fat content) provide some differentiation, but switching costs among flours are generally low at the household level and manageable for industrial users with R&D support. Brand reputation, certifications, and consistent granulation can moderate buyer power in premium segments (Allied Market Research, 2025).

• Demand tailwinds. Gen Z preference for “better-for-you” foods and the ongoing shift toward gluten-free diets support category pull, cushioning the effect of buyer price pressure in the near term (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Net assessment. Buyer power is moderate: brand equity and product quality can blunt price negotiations, but transparency and substitution options limit suppliers’ ability to push through cost increases fully.

Force 4 — Threat of substitutes: High

• Breadth of gluten-free substitutes. Buyers routinely substitute across a portfolio of gluten-free flours: buckwheat, amaranth, millet, sorghum, maize, chestnut, quinoa, tapioca, and others. Peer-reviewed work comparing gluten-free and gluten-containing flours (including almond flour) documents the diversity of mineral profiles—evidence that nutrition-led product development can shift across alternative bases without necessarily sacrificing key micronutrient targets (Gluten-containing and gluten-free flours minerals study, 2023/2024).

• Functional alternatives. Many substitutes meet functional goals in specific applications (e.g., buckwheat or sorghum in breads, tapioca for viscosity). Given the importance of functional texture in bakery products, formulation expertise can enable cost-driven substitution when almond prices spike. Market studies repeatedly classify “threat of substitutes” among top competitive forces in almond flour, reinforcing the strategic importance of differentiation (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Net assessment. Substitute threat is high; sustaining preference for almond flour requires superior sensory outcomes, clean-label cues, and nutrition positioning.

Force 5 — Industry rivalry: Moderate–High

• Competitive density. The presence of multiple well-known brands (Blue Diamond Growers, Bob’s Red Mill, King Arthur, NOW Foods, etc.) and specialist processors indicates active competition across retail, foodservice, and B2B channels. Category growth invites niche players (organic, single-origin, extra-fine grind) while incumbents deploy expansion and portfolio strategies to protect share (Allied Market Research, 2025).

• Price sensitivity and cost pass-through. Raw almond price swings drive COGS volatility. When pass-through is constrained by retailer and consumer price sensitivity, rivalry intensifies around promotion, pack-size strategy, and channel mix—conditions consistent with reports highlighting narrow margins despite demand resiliency (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Differentiation via functionality and science. Peer-reviewed research shows almond proteins’ distinctive functional roles in texture and the potential to enhance performance through processing innovations (e.g., high-power ultrasound affecting protein structure and functional properties), which can yield superior outcomes in bakery systems and support premium positioning (Enhancing Functional Properties of Almond Protein Isolate, 2024).

• Net assessment. Rivalry is moderate–high, mitigated by category growth but sharpened by cost pressures and abundant substitutes.

Strategic implications and recommendations

• Hedge supplier power with portfolio and contracts:

  • Develop multi-year arrangements with large almond handlers to stabilize supply and costs; explore partial vertical integration or co-investments with shellers/handlers to secure throughput (SkyQuest, 2025).
  • Maintain a calibrated portfolio of blanched and natural flours and multiple granulations to flex mix in response to almond price moves, preserving margin while meeting customer spec diversity (Allied Market Research, 2025).

• Differentiate against substitutes with proven functionality:

  • Leverage published protein functionality insights to claim and demonstrate superior crumb structure, moisture retention, and texture in key bakery SKUs; invest in application labs and publish comparative bake tests to raise switching costs (Enhancing Functional Properties of Almond Protein Isolate, 2024).
  • Pair nutrition messaging (healthy fats, complete amino acids) with mineral fortification or blends to match or exceed competing GF flours’ micronutrient profiles documented in the literature (Gluten-containing and gluten-free flours minerals study, 2023/2024).

• Make compliance and quality a moat:

  • Adopt state-of-the-art allergen detection methods aligned to NIST RM 8404 to underpin claims of batch-to-batch consistency and safety; communicate QA rigor to retailers and industrial buyers as a procurement differentiator (NIST SP 260-218).

• Play the channels and data:

  • Use DTC and marketplace channels for premium SKUs and education, while building retail packs with price-pack architecture tailored to elasticity; exploit digital shelf analytics as retail dynamics evolve (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Consider M&A and partnerships:

  • Consolidation can improve procurement leverage and utilization of blanching/milling assets; partnerships with bakeries and CPGs secure base volumes and co-development opportunities in high-growth applications (Allied Market Research, 2025).

Risk factors and monitoring

• Input price shocks. Monitor almond price indices and crop forecasts; scenario-plan pass-through and mix shifts. Reports stress that raw material volatility is a key restraint on producers’ margins (Research and Markets, 2025).
• Trade and regulatory shifts. Track tariff regimes and import/export policy changes impacting nut flows; ensure labeling and allergen regulations are met in target markets, leveraging reference materials to validate methods (USDA FAS, 2016; NIST SP 260-218).
• Competitive moves. Watch incumbent brand expansions, private-label growth, and technology adoption that could compress differentiation windows; market reports repeatedly highlight rivalry dynamics and new product launches as shaping trajectories (Allied Market Research, 2025).

My bottom-line view

Despite robust demand drivers, the almond flour market’s structure is defined by two stiff headwinds—supplier power and substitute availability. In that context, the most durable differentiation will come from (a) advantaged sourcing (contracts, scale, or integration), (b) demonstrable functional superiority in high-value bakery applications backed by science, and (c) verifiable quality and allergen control programs. Players that can execute across these three pillars should outperform on margin resilience and share gain, even as general rivalry remains elevated and buyer price sensitivity persists (Enhancing Functional Properties of Almond Protein Isolate, 2024; NIST SP 260-218; Research and Markets, 2025).

References

• Allied Market Research. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Growth | Report Forecast 2027. Allied Market Research. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/almond-flour-market-A06392
• Expert Market Research. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Growth | 2034. Expert Market Research. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-market
• NIST (Phillips, M. M., Bunk, D. M., Green, A. B., & Yen, J. H.). (2017). Value Assignment of Reference Material 8404 Almond Flour for Allergen Detection (NIST SP 260-218). National Institute of Standards and Technology. https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/SpecialPublications/NIST.SP.260-218.pdf
• Sathe, S. K., et al. (2024). Enhancing Functional Properties and Protein Structure of Almond Protein Isolate Using High-Power Ultrasound Treatment. Foods (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11313724/
• USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. (2016). Tree Nuts Market Brief Update 2016 (Korea). USDA FAS. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Tree%20Nuts%20Market%20Brief%20Update%202016_Seoul%20ATO_Korea%20-%20Republic%20of_10-6-2016.pdf
• Yahoo Finance. (2024, May 28). Almond Flour Market - Global Blanched, Natural, Conventional, Organic Forecast 2024-2030. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almond-flour-market-global-blanched-110600745.html
• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 Almond Flour Market Report - Industry Size, Competition, Trends and Growth Opportunities by Region - Forecast by Types and Applications (2024-2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srsltid=AfmBOorWW8gAV2wYD8IGi8vM1cmGGYpY5FnLQlFnFApMzGxqao20fkZo
• Study on minerals in gluten-free and gluten-containing flours. (2023/2024). Gluten-containing flours and gluten-free flours as a source of calcium, magnesium, iron and zinc (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11199505/
• SkyQuest. (2025). Almond Flour Market Companies. SkyQuest. https://www.skyquestt.com/report/almond-flour-market/companies

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall competitive landscape for almond flour in 2025?

The competitive landscape for almond flour is characterized by moderate to high industry rivalry, driven by multiple established brands and a growing category. The market is projected to reach USD 1.21 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of about 9.2% from 2025 to 2034, indicating robust demand but also significant competition among players (Allied Market Research, 2025).

How does supplier power affect the almond flour market?

Supplier power is assessed as high due to the concentrated sourcing of almonds, which are the primary input for almond flour. Major suppliers like Blue Diamond Growers and Olam International dominate the market, leading to raw material price volatility that directly impacts cost of goods sold (COGS) for manufacturers (Research and Markets, 2025).

What is the threat of substitutes in the almond flour market?

The threat of substitutes is high, with numerous gluten-free alternatives available such as buckwheat, quinoa, and millet, which can fulfill similar functional roles in baking. This diversity allows consumers to easily switch to other flours, especially when almond prices rise, thereby intensifying competitive pressures (Research and Markets, 2025).

How does buyer power influence pricing in the almond flour market?

Buyer power is moderate, influenced by a fragmented customer base that includes households, artisanal bakers, and industrial users. While brand differentiation exists, the low switching costs among gluten-free flours and increased price transparency through e-commerce platforms limit suppliers' ability to raise prices significantly (Research and Markets, 2025).

What are the barriers to entry for new competitors in the almond flour market?

Barriers to entry are considered moderate; while e-commerce and contract milling make initial access easier, compliance with food safety regulations and allergen management raises operational complexities. Established brands benefit from economies of scale and strong supplier relationships, making it challenging for new entrants to compete effectively (Research and Markets, 2025).

How does industry rivalry impact almond flour pricing and innovation?

Industry rivalry is moderate to high, driven by the presence of well-known brands and the introduction of niche players. Price sensitivity is heightened due to raw almond price fluctuations, compelling companies to innovate in product functionality and marketing strategies to maintain competitive advantage while managing narrow profit margins (Allied Market Research, 2025).