• The global almond flour market is projected to reach between US$1.2–1.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 8-9% expected through 2034, potentially hitting US$2.5–3.0 billion by 2032–2034.

• Health trends driving demand include gluten-free and low-carb diets, with baking applications anticipated to account for approximately 59% of market demand by 2025.

• North America currently leads the market, followed by Europe, while the Asia-Pacific region is the fastest-growing due to increasing health awareness and a rising middle class.

• The competitive landscape is fragmented with moderate to high rivalry and risks from climate change, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory pressures, necessitating strategic sourcing and risk management.

Market Attractiveness & Heat Maps

Product: Almond Flour
Section: Strategic Analyses

Almond Flour Market Attractiveness & Heat Maps (2025 Outlook)

Executive appraisal and headline findings

• Triangulated size and growth: Across the most recent 2025-grade sources, the global almond flour market shows a consistent mid–high single-digit growth trajectory. The 2024 market size clusters in the US$1.2–1.5 billion range, with a consensus 2025–2034 CAGR of roughly 8–9%. Specifically, Expert Market Research (EMR) estimates US$1,213.63 million in 2024, growing at 9.20% CAGR to US$2,926.26 million by 2034; Persistence Market Research (PMR) estimates US$1.48 billion in 2025, reaching US$2.54 billion by 2032 at 8.1% CAGR; Growth Market Reports (GMR) pegs 2024 at US$1.32 billion with 8.7% CAGR; Cognitive Market Research (CMR) cites an 8.11% CAGR for 2025–2033. Market Research Future (MRFR) presents a higher 2024 base (US$2.50 billion) but a similar CAGR (8.59%) into 2035, which we treat as a high-case scenario. On balance, our view is that the most defensible 2024 base is US$1.2–1.5 billion with an 8–9% medium-term CAGR, yielding a 2032–2034 value in the US$2.5–3.0 billion band (Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Growth Market Reports, 2025; Cognitive Market Research, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025).

• Demand engine: Health-driven substitution (gluten-free, low-carb, keto/paleo), premiumization (clean-label, non-GMO, organic), and expanding culinary usage in bakery, snacks, and value-added mixes. Baking alone is expected to contribute approximately 59% of demand around 2025 per recent channel analyses, underscoring its primacy in the application mix (Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Regional profile: North America leads by share (mature premium/clean-label uptake and established bakeshop/retail networks), Europe follows closely, while Asia-Pacific (APAC) is the fastest-growing region on rising health awareness and middle-class expansion. This configuration is consistently reported across multiple recent market studies (Persistence Market Research, 2025; Growth Market Reports, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025).

• Structure and risks: A fragmented, highly competitive landscape with both global and regional players; externalities include tariff and trade risks, continuing supply-chain fragility, and climate-exposed almond sourcing (notably in California and Mediterranean-origin supply basins). Five Forces profiles suggest moderate–high rivalry and notable supply-side sensitivity; 2024–2025 commentary highlights residual supply-chain and trade uncertainties. Climate and geopolitical risks remain material for cost and availability planning (Research and Markets, 2025; SkyQuest, 2025).

Method note: How this report builds heat maps of attractiveness

We construct segment and regional heat maps using a weighted composite of:

• Market size (current opportunity) and CAGR (forward growth)
• Profitability proxies (premiumization/organic adoption, pricing power)
• Competitive intensity (fragmentation, entry barriers)
• Supply risk (crop/climate dependency) and regulatory or trade exposure
• Channel momentum (especially online acceleration)

Weights are calibrated to decision-making utility: 30% current size, 30% growth, 10% profitability proxy, 15% competitive intensity (inverse), 15% supply/trade risk (inverse). Scores are presented on a 1–5 scale (5 = most attractive). Inputs reference up-to-date 2025 sources (EMR, PMR, Research and Markets, MRFR, GMR, CMR, FMI, SkyQuest).

Triangulated market baselines and growth scenarios

The table below aligns 2024–2025 baselines and forward CAGRs across recent sources to anchor the scoring.

Sources: (Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Growth Market Reports, 2025; Cognitive Market Research, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025; Straits Research, 2023).

Our view: Use EMR and PMR as anchors; adopt US$1.2–1.5 billion as the 2024–2025 base and 8–9% CAGR to 2032–2034. MRFR’s larger base is acknowledged as a high-case scenario with aligned growth rate (Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025).

Regional market attractiveness heat map (2025–2032/34)

Evidence across PMR, GMR, MRFR, and EMR converges on NA leadership, EU second, and APAC as fastest-growing. Supply risk (climate/water) is highest where almond inputs are concentrated; however, demand-side resilience (premium/clean-label) supports NA/EU margin prospects. APAC’s growth and e-commerce penetration improve forward attractiveness despite early-stage baselines.

Notes:

• Size: NA leads; EU follows; APAC smaller but catching up (Persistence Market Research, 2025; Growth Market Reports, 2025).
• Growth: APAC is fastest; NA/EU steady; LATAM/MEA moderate off a small base (Market Research Future, 2025).
• Profitability proxy: Premium/organic penetration and retail channel maturity favor NA/EU (Persistence Market Research, 2025).
• Risk: Supply chain/tariff/climate concerns remain but are better mitigated where diversified sourcing, logistics, and inventory practices are mature (Research and Markets, 2025; SkyQuest, 2025).

Conclusion: APAC edges out as the most attractive growth bet (score 3.9) when weighted for forward momentum and relatively lower concentrated-supply exposure, despite a smaller present base. North America remains the best “scale-plus-margin” region (4.1), combining current size and premium pricing power.

Application segment attractiveness heat map

Multiple sources position bakery as the demand core; FMI quantifies baking applications near 59% by 2025. Confectionery is synergistic; snacks are rising; cosmetics is a minor niche.

Rationale:

• Bakery: Central to gluten-free/low-carb substitution; almond flour’s functionality (moisture, crumb, flavor) is compelling. High acceptance in retail mixes and foodservice supports scale and margin realization (Future Market Insights, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025).
• Snacks: Protein- and nut-forward formats align with health trends; online discovery and DTC enable premium SKUs (Expert Market Research, 2025).
• Cosmetics: Present in some segmentations, but remains niche with limited direct substitution rationale compared to kernel oil usage; low scale today (SkyQuest, 2025).

Type and “nature” segment attractiveness

Two orthogonal dimensions shape “type/nature” choices: flour form (blanched vs. natural) and production nature (conventional vs. organic).

Evidence: Blanched leads share and suitability for baking/confectionery; organic demand rising with clean-label preferences and online curation dynamics (Growth Market Reports, 2025; Data Bridge Market Research, 2025).

Distribution channel attractiveness

Reports consistently note accelerated online retail growth (convenience, assortment depth, discovery for niche/clean-label SKUs) alongside established offline scale in supermarkets/hypermarkets and specialty stores.

Evidence: Online growth repeatedly highlighted; retail mainstream channels remain core to volume (Data Bridge Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025).

End-use attractiveness

Source triangulation reflects segmentation used by EMR, SkyQuest, and PMR; home baking and foodservice have sustained momentum with premiumization potential (Expert Market Research, 2025; SkyQuest, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025).

Competitive intensity and Five Forces snapshot

Recent “five forces” outlines (Research and Markets) and competitive landscape briefs (GMR, PMR, SkyQuest) point to:

• Threat of new entrants: Moderate. Barriers include consistent raw material quality, milling tech/know-how, certifications (gluten-free facilities), and channel access, but private-label and DTC brands can still enter (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Supplier power: Moderate–high. Almond price volatility and climate exposure increase supplier leverage; long-term grower relationships and origin diversification mitigate risk (SkyQuest, 2025).

• Buyer power: Moderate. Retailers exert pressure on price and slotting; consumers show willingness to pay for clean-label and organic, partially offsetting commoditization for branded players (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• Threat of substitutes: Moderate. Alternative nut/seed flours (coconut, hazelnut) and other gluten-free flours (rice, pulse) exist, but almond flour’s taste/function profile maintains a defensible niche (Research and Markets, 2025).

• Rivalry: High. Fragmented field with global brands, regional processors, and private label; innovation (blends, fortified SKUs) and digital go-to-market are differentiators (Growth Market Reports, 2025).

Indicative players often referenced include Blue Diamond Growers, Bob’s Red Mill Natural Foods, Treehouse California Almonds, and Rolling Hills Nut Company, among others; strategies focus on product innovation, processing enhancements, and channel expansion (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

Risk and uncertainty heat map

Evidence: 2025 report outlines highlight ongoing tariff and supply chain uncertainties as well as the structural exposure to climate-related supply shocks; analyst risk frameworks emphasize geopolitical and climate impacts on distribution and revenue growth (Research and Markets, 2025; SkyQuest, 2025).

Where the heat is (our investment-grade view)

• Top “scale-plus-growth” bet: North America bakery and household retail (including online). This pair maximizes immediate volume with favorable premium-mix and a resilient consumer. Emphasis on blanched flour SKUs, clean-label claims, and retail-ready packaging is advised (Persistence Market Research, 2025; Expert Market Research, 2025).

• Highest growth wedge: APAC online and foodservice bakery/confectionery. Early-stage penetration, rising middle-class health awareness, and marketplace platforms (assortment/premium discovery) underpin superior growth. Build localized inventories and partner with regional bakeries for menu innovation (Market Research Future, 2025).

• Premiumization sweet spot: Organic blanched flour in Europe and North America specialty retail/online. While smaller in volume than conventional, organic affords pricing power and brand differentiation aligned with clean-label preferences (Data Bridge Market Research, 2025).

• Innovation runway: Fortified blends (protein, fiber, micronutrients) and ready-to-use baking mixes address convenience and nutrition—validated as opportunity vectors in recent competitive intelligence outlines (Research and Markets, 2025).

Strategic actions

• Sourcing and risk hedging: Commit to multi-origin almond procurement and contract growers; explore forward contracts/hedging. Invest in milling flexibility to handle blanched and natural inputs while maintaining certified gluten-free lines (SkyQuest, 2025).

• Channel mix optimization: Tilt portfolio toward online (DTC/marketplaces) for organic and specialty blends, while defending supermarket shelf space with value-engineered packs. Use data-driven content and community to lower CAC and sustain premium pricing (Data Bridge Market Research, 2025).

• Portfolio design: Prioritize blanched flour for bakery/confectionery and develop fortified, recipe-specific blends (e.g., cookie, cake, bread). Pilot APAC market entries via marketplace storefronts with localized language/recipe content (Expert Market Research, 2025).

• Pricing and promotion: Lean into clean-label, non-GMO, organic certifications and sustainability storytelling to defend margin amid almond price cycles. Bundle with baking aids and offer subscriptions for sticky DTC cohorts (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• M&A/partnerships: Evaluate bolt-ons in specialty milling, certified gluten-free facilities, or regional distribution alliances in APAC to accelerate market access and resilient fulfillment (Growth Market Reports, 2025).

Limitations and how to interpret ranges

Market size variance (e.g., MRFR’s higher 2024 base) reflects differences in scope (forms, “almond meal” inclusion, channels), currency assumptions, and methodology. Strategic decisions should be based on ranges validated by your SKU definitions and geographies. Nonetheless, the multi-source concordance on growth (8–9% CAGR) and structural drivers provides high confidence in the directionality and relative attractiveness highlighted herein (Expert Market Research, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025).

References

• Cognitive Market Research. (2025). Global Almond Flour Market Report 2025 Edition, Market Size, Share, CAGR, Forecast, Revenue. Cognitive Market Research. https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/almond-flour-market-report

• Data Bridge Market Research. (n.d.). Global Almond Flour Market. Data Bridge Market Research. https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-almond-flour-market

• Expert Market Research. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Growth | 2034. Expert Market Research. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-market?srsltid=AfmB0ooYlCcqyW0T24226Q4QkDLMlPtVD1UGci3NoT0Cdhpgob4VYLw3

• Future Market Insights. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Growth Market Reports. (2025). Almond Flour Market Research Report 2023. Growth Market Reports. https://growthmarketreports.com/report/almond-flour-market

• Market Research Future. (2025, October). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Trends, Industry Reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860

• Persistence Market Research. (2025, October 7). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Growth Analysis, 2032. Persistence Market Research. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/almond-flour-market.asp

• Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 Almond Flour Market Report – Industry Size, Competition, Trends and Growth Opportunities by Region – Forecast by Types and Applications (2024–2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srsltid=AfmBOoo8wN1QpUUVevmJKi-iWzraMdkNurqRYlh_oJAoAAYYyqyfUvWq

• SkyQuest. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share and Growth | Analysis. SkyQuest. https://www.skyquestt.com/report/almond-flour-market

• Straits Research. (2023, April). Almond Flour Market Growth, Trends and Forecast to 2031. Straits Research. https://straitsresearch.com/report/almond-flour-market

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected market size for almond flour in 2024 and 2025?

The almond flour market is estimated to be between US$1.2 billion and US$1.5 billion in 2024, with projections for 2025 indicating a size of approximately US$1.48 billion according to Persistence Market Research.

What is the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the almond flour market from 2025 to 2034?

The almond flour market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of roughly 8–9% from 2025 to 2034, with estimates suggesting it could reach between US$2.5 billion and US$3.0 billion by 2034.

Which application segment is expected to drive the most demand for almond flour?

Baking is projected to be the primary application for almond flour, contributing approximately 59% of the total demand around 2025, driven by health trends such as gluten-free and low-carb diets.

How does the almond flour market's regional attractiveness compare?

North America leads in market attractiveness with a score of 4.1, followed closely by Europe at 3.7, and Asia-Pacific emerging as the fastest-growing region with a score of 3.9, reflecting rising health awareness and middle-class expansion.

What are the key risks affecting the almond flour market?

Key risks include climate and water stress in major almond sourcing regions, which have a severity rating of 5, and price volatility of almonds, rated at 4. These factors can significantly impact supply and pricing stability.

What competitive dynamics exist within the almond flour market?

The almond flour market is characterized by high rivalry due to a fragmented landscape with both global and regional players. The threat of new entrants is moderate, while supplier power is rated as moderate to high due to almond price volatility and climate exposure.

What strategic actions should businesses consider in the almond flour market?

Businesses should focus on multi-origin sourcing to mitigate risks, optimize their channel mix towards online sales, and prioritize product innovation, such as developing fortified blends and clean-label offerings to capture premium pricing opportunities.