• The global almond flour market is projected to grow from USD 1.24 billion in 2022 to USD 2.44 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 7.8%, driven by increasing demand for gluten-free and keto-friendly products.

• Europe, holding 34.54% of almond ingredient revenue in 2024, is identified as a key expansion region after North America, where premium consumers are increasingly seeking clean-label products.

• A premium blanched almond flour line, optimized for baking performance, should be launched via an ecommerce-first strategy, targeting both retail and B2B channels, particularly artisanal bakeries and snack manufacturers.

• Risk management strategies must include robust allergen controls and diversified sourcing to mitigate raw almond price volatility and supply chain disruptions, ensuring compliance with stringent food safety regulations.

Entry & Expansion Playbook

Product: Almond Flour

Executive summary

The almond flour category offers an attractive, defensible niche within the broader “better-for-you” ingredients ecosystem, supported by sustained 7–8% CAGR through 2031–2033, premium price realization, and multiple growth levers across retail and B2B channels. The most capital-efficient entry thesis is to launch a premium blanched almond flour line (with optional organic variants) that is functionally tuned for bakery performance (fine particle size control, moisture management, absorption), then scale via an ecommerce-first channel strategy into specialty retail and targeted B2B (artisanal and mid-market bakeries, snack manufacturers). Expansion should prioritize Europe (highest revenue share in almond ingredients) and North America (mature, high-penetration, premium-seeking consumers), with innovation centered on diet-aligned blends (keto, low-carb) and SKU adjacencies (mixes). Risk management hinges on robust allergen controls, multi-origin procurement, and hedging raw almond exposure. This playbook provides a concrete roadmap tying product, channel, operations, regulatory, and ESG into a staged scale plan grounded in current market data and functional performance science. (Straits Research, 2023; Mordor Intelligence, 2024; Archive Market Research, 2025; American Society of Baking, n.d.; Taiwan News, 2025) (Straits Research, 2023; Mordor Intelligence, 2024; Archive Market Research, 2025; American Society of Baking, n.d.; Taiwan News, 2025)

1) Market context, size, and growth

• Size and growth. Multiple recent market analyses converge on robust medium-term growth. Straits Research estimates the global almond flour market at USD 1.24 billion (2022), projecting USD 2.44 billion by 2031 (CAGR 7.8%). Archive Market Research (AMR) estimates USD 1,079.2 million in 2025 with an 8.0% CAGR through 2033. These independent trajectories triangulate a sustained 7–8% CAGR profile, consistent with continual penetration into gluten-free, keto/low-carb, and clean-label baking and snacks. (Straits Research, 2023; Archive Market Research, 2025)

• Regional attractiveness. While “almond ingredients” is a broader category than flour, it is informative for demand mapping. Europe commanded 34.54% of almond ingredient revenue in 2024, underpinned by clean-label regulation, Mediterranean culinary traditions, and rising regional production. This consumer and regulatory environment aligns well with premium almond flour, suggesting Europe as a priority expansion region after North America. (Mordor Intelligence, 2024)

• Channel dynamics. Online retail is scaling rapidly due to convenience and assortment breadth, while supermarkets/hypermarkets and specialty stores remain critical for discovery and repeat. Industry commentary indicates online expansion is outpacing brick-and-mortar growth within the category. (Amarantosocial, 2025)

• Applications. Bakery and confectionery dominate volume, with rising use in snacks and select beverage/culinary applications (e.g., coatings, thickeners, and novel RTM mixes). Diet-driven innovation (keto, paleo, vegan) stimulates new formats and blended flours. (Amarantosocial, 2025; Taiwan News, 2025)

2) Demand drivers and what they mean for positioning

• Health and diet alignment. Almond flour is naturally gluten-free, low in carbs (vs. wheat flour), and rich in healthy fats, protein, and fiber—attributes central to celiac, gluten-sensitive, keto, and clean-label consumers. These functional nutrition signals justify premium positioning. (American Society of Baking, n.d.; Amarantosocial, 2025)

• Functional performance in baking. Compared with cereal flours, almond flour contributes structure via protein coagulation, retains moisture (fiber), and exhibits higher absorption in dough/batter—critical to product quality in gluten-free systems. Optimizing grind size, oil content, and moisture further enhances bake outcomes and product differentiation. (American Society of Baking, n.d.)

• Versatility beyond sweet bakery. Operators increasingly use almond flour in savory batters, coatings, and as a thickener or nutrient-dense base in mixes—broadening TAM and enabling cross-category brand building. (Amarantosocial, 2025)

3) Competitive landscape and whitespace

The market is fragmented with a blend of specialty brands and ingredient suppliers. Leading names include Bob’s Red Mill, Blue Diamond, Hodgson Mill, Barney Butter, Rolling Hills Nut Company, King Arthur, Anthony’s Goods, and TREEHOUSE ALMONDS. Large ingredient players leverage sourcing scale; premium consumer brands lead in trust, content, and community reach. Whitespace persists in functionally-optimized SKUs for commercial bakers and diet-specific blends. (Amarantosocial, 2025; Straits Research, 2023)

Select competitor snapshot

(Company lists compiled from market summaries and profiles) (Amarantosocial, 2025; Straits Research, 2023)

4) Entry thesis and product architecture

Opinion: The optimal entry is a premium blanched almond flour platform with dual tracks—consumer (D2C/ecommerce and specialty retail) and B2B (artisan/mid-market bakery, snack makers). Differentiation should be technical (milling curve, predictable absorption, micro-lot COAs) and diet-aligned. This balances premium gross margins with defensible value for professional users.

• Core SKUs at launch
  • Blanched, extra-fine almond flour, moisture 5–6.5%, standardized absorption spec, 1 lb and 3 lb retail; 25 lb and 50 lb B2B.
  • Organic blanched variant for EU/US specialty retail and online.
  • Functionally-optimized unblanched (natural) flour for rustic/savory bakes.
• Phase-2 innovations
  • Keto-targeted blends (almond flour + psyllium/seed fibers) for bread structure.
  • Performance line for laminated pastry and cookies (tight particle size distribution).
  • Flavored/fortified flours and baking mixes addressing indulgent-yet-keto use cases.

These choices leverage almond flour’s functional profile—structure via proteins, moisture retention, and absorption—delivering repeatable outcomes valued by both home and pro bakers. (American Society of Baking, n.d.)

5) Go-to-market (GTM) blueprint

• Phase 0–6 months: Proof and traction

  • Launch D2C with a content engine (recipe lab, keto/gluten-free guides) and performance storytelling (absorption, crumb, moisture retention).
  • Seed with micro-influencers in keto/paleo and professional bakers’ communities; run bake test panels to generate UGC and spec testimonials.
  • Pilot B2B with 10–20 artisan bakeries; offer tech support (hydration tables, conversion guides from wheat flour).
  • KPI gates: 35–40% repeat D2C by 90 days; B2B retention >80%; CAC payback <3 orders.

• Phase 6–18 months: Scale and channel diversification

  • Specialty retail rollouts (natural/specialty grocers) prioritized in US and select EU markets, anchored by organic SKU in EU.
  • Marketplace expansion (Amazon, specialty platforms) and international ecommerce shipping.
  • Targeted B2B verticals: gluten-free bakeries, high-protein cookie/snack producers; offer bulk pricing and tech docs (COAs, grind curves, moisture specs).
  • KPI gates: 1,000+ active B2B accounts; retail velocities ≥8–12 units/store/week in specialty; gross margin ≥35% blended.

• Phase 18–36 months: Geographic and portfolio expansion

  • Regionalize EU footprint (Germany, UK, France, Nordics) and expand APAC selectively (Japan, South Korea) via distributors.
  • Launch blends and baking mixes; explore co-branding with baking authorities for credibility.
  • KPI gates: International sales >25% of total; mix SKUs ≥20% revenue; retail distribution ≥5,000 doors cumulative.

The approach aligns with market evidence that online is growing strongly and bakery/confectionery remains the largest application, where performance claims resonate. (Amarantosocial, 2025; Taiwan News, 2025)

6) Regional prioritization

(European share from almond ingredients context indicating favorable conditions) (Mordor Intelligence, 2024)

7) Operations, quality, and regulatory

• Allergen management. Almonds are major allergens; implement stringent segregation, validated sanitation, and allergen label controls; prevent cross-contact across lines and during transport. Adopt GFSI-certified systems (e.g., BRCGS, SQF) and routine environmental monitoring. (American Society of Baking, n.d.)

• Functional specs and documentation. Provide COAs covering protein (~20%), fat (~53%), carbohydrate (~20%), dietary fiber (~8%), sugars (~7%), and moisture (5–7%). Publish milling curves, particle size distribution, and absorption guidance for predictability in customer formulations. (American Society of Baking, n.d.)

• Certifications and claims.

  • Gluten-free certification for retail trust.
  • Organic certification (EU/US) for premium segments.
  • Country-of-origin transparency and pasteurization method disclosure where applicable.
  • Comply with regional food labeling frameworks (EU FIC, US FDA).

• Sourcing strategy. Diversify origins (e.g., California and expanding European almond production) to mitigate climatic and price shocks; set procurement SLAs for kernel quality and aflatoxin controls; consider forward contracts and inventory buffers. (Regional production insight inferred from almond ingredient market dynamics) (Mordor Intelligence, 2024)

8) Innovation roadmap (2025–2028)

• Diet-aligned blends. Keto bread and pastry blends incorporating fibers for structure and lower net carbs; low-sugar dessert mixes using almond flour as base.

• Performance flours. Application-specific grinds (cookies vs. cakes vs. laminated doughs) with narrow PSD for consistent texture and spread; moisture-managed SKUs for shelf-stable mixes.

• Flavor and fortification. Cocoa- or vanilla-infused flours; added plant protein for macro targets in snacks.

• Ready-to-mix adjacencies. Pancake, muffin, and brownie mixes tuned for clean labels and specialty diets—an accessible entry for mass retail once brand equity is established.

Market sources emphasize innovation in formulations to address keto/paleo/vegan use cases and broaden applications—an expansion lever for differentiation. (Amarantosocial, 2025; Research and Markets, 2025)

9) ESG and sustainability positioning

• Responsible sourcing. Preference for growers adopting water stewardship and regenerative practices; publish supplier scorecards; explore EU origins to cut transport emissions into European markets.

• Packaging. Use recyclable/compostable materials with barrier properties to protect fat-rich flour; communicate LCA wins.

• Social compliance. Certify ethical labor practices across agricultural and processing partners.

Consumer preference for ethically sourced, sustainable products is accelerating; brands that transparently demonstrate progress gain durable share. (Amarantosocial, 2025)

10) Pricing, pack sizes, and terms

• Consumer: Premium positioning at 10–25% above mass-market almond flour justified by bake performance and certifications; 1 lb, 3 lb pouches for D2C/retail (zip-reclose, windowless barrier).

• B2B: 25 lb, 50 lb foodservice/bulk bags; volume tiers with rebates; technical service access included above MOQ.

• Trade support: Intro discounts for retail resets; demo and digital sampling; category education content to improve velocities.

11) Risk landscape and mitigations

(Drivers and challenges reflect recurring themes in market briefings on almond flour growth and constraints) (Research and Markets, 2025; Taiwan News, 2025)

12) KPIs and analytics

• Demand and sales: D2C repeat rate (30/60/90-day), subscriptions share, retail velocity per store per week, B2B account retention and revenue per account.

• Operations and quality: OTIF, yield, COA conformance, complaint rate per 10,000 units, allergen audit scores.

• Marketing effectiveness: CAC, ROAS, content engagement, recipe conversion rates.

• Innovation: % revenue from SKUs <24 months old, formulation success rate in test kitchens.

13) Investment and capability priorities

• Milling and QA. Invest early in precision milling (tight PSD), moisture control, and rapid COA turnaround—these are defensible moats for B2B.

• Technical services. A small applications team that can troubleshoot baker hydration and structure in gluten-free systems is a revenue unlock for B2B conversion.

• Digital growth. Own D2C storefront, marketplace expertise, and an SEO–recipe content engine targeted at GF/keto queries to lower CAC over time.

• Partnerships. Distributor and co-manufacturing partnerships for EU scale; selective collaboration with credible baking brands for co-developed mixes.

14) Financial outlook anchoring

Given the category’s 7–8% CAGR projections through 2031–2033, a focused entrant with premium positioning, strong ecommerce, and targeted B2B could reasonably outgrow the category at 15–20% CAGR over the first 3–5 years—particularly as differentiated functionals and mixes ramp—while maintaining blended gross margins ≥35%. This view is grounded in the premium trend, online growth, and the whitespace in technical performance for commercial bakers. (Straits Research, 2023; Archive Market Research, 2025; Taiwan News, 2025)

References

American Society of Baking. (n.d.). Almond flour. ASB. https://asbe.org/article/almond-flour/

Amarantosocial. (2025). Health-conscious consumers boost global almond flour market demand. Amarantosocial. http://amarantosocial.altervista.org/blogs/1136/Health-Conscious-Consumers-Boost-Global-Almond-Flour-Market-Demand?lang=it_it

Archive Market Research. (2025, June 5). Almond Flour 2025–2033 overview: Trends, competitor dynamics, and opportunities. Archive Market Research. https://www.archivemarketresearch.com/reports/almond-flour-164013

Mordor Intelligence. (2024). Almond ingredients market size, forecast report 2030. Mordor Intelligence. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/almond-ingredients-market

Research and Markets. (2025). 2025 Almond Flour Market Report – Industry size, competition, trends and growth opportunities by region – forecast by types and applications (2024–2032). Research and Markets. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5607648/2025-almond-flour-market-report-industry-size?srsltid=AfmBOoq8V-gfx9DDHqaSRgZ_6HvoxgQqkmOO1SBfAz-i6MFsBfqXap1U

Straits Research. (2023, April). Almond flour market growth, trends and forecast to 2031. Straits Research. https://straitsresearch.com/report/almond-flour-market

Taiwan News. (2025, March 28). Almond flour market segmented application and geography trends, growth and forecasts 2025–2033. Taiwan News. https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/6071564

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected market size for almond flour by 2031?

The global almond flour market is projected to reach USD 2.44 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 7.8% from an estimated USD 1.24 billion in 2022. This growth is driven by increasing demand for gluten-free, keto, and clean-label baking products.

Which regions should we prioritize for entry and expansion?

North America and Europe are the top priority regions. North America has a mature market with premium-seeking consumers, while Europe accounted for 34.54% of almond ingredient revenue in 2024, benefiting from clean-label regulations and culinary traditions.

What are the key drivers of demand for almond flour?

Key demand drivers include its gluten-free nature, low carbohydrate content, and rich nutritional profile. These attributes appeal to health-conscious consumers, particularly those following gluten-free, keto, and clean-label diets.

How should we approach our go-to-market strategy for almond flour?

The go-to-market strategy should focus on an ecommerce-first approach, leveraging direct-to-consumer channels and specialty retail. Initial phases should include proof of traction through influencer partnerships and pilot programs with artisan bakeries.

What are the main risks associated with entering the almond flour market?

Main risks include raw almond price volatility, allergen management, and supply chain disruptions. Mitigation strategies involve multi-origin sourcing, GFSI certification for allergen controls, and maintaining safety stock to buffer against supply shocks.

What innovations should we consider for product development?

Innovations should focus on diet-aligned blends, such as keto-targeted mixes and performance flours for specific baking applications. Additionally, exploring flavored and fortified options can help capture a broader consumer base.

What are the expected gross margins for almond flour products?

Blended gross margins are expected to be at least 35%, driven by premium positioning and differentiated functional offerings. This margin is achievable as the market continues to grow and consumers seek higher-quality products.