• Almond flour serves as a planned pantry staple for gluten-free and ketogenic baking, with a moderate repurchase cycle of approximately 1-6 weeks depending on baking frequency, emphasizing its role as a key ingredient that drives basket organization.

• North America leads the almond flour market, projected to grow from $1.48B in 2025 to $2.54B by 2032, driven by household usage and increasing retail availability, particularly for blanched, super-fine varieties.

• Almond flour is a critical "basket builder," co-purchasing frequently with leavening agents, binders, and sweeteners, suggesting that retailers should optimize product placement and offer bundled kits to enhance shopper convenience and increase average order value.

• To cater to consumer preferences, retailers should consider subscription models for almond flour at 4-8 week intervals, aligning with typical usage patterns, while also managing flavor profiles in baking to encourage repeat purchases.

Purchase Frequency & Basket Role

Product: Almond Flour
Section: Consumer & Channel Insights

Almond Flour Purchase Frequency & Basket Role: An Evidence-Based View for Retail and CPG

Executive summary

• What the evidence says: Across reliable scientific and trade-technical sources, almond flour is a planned, mission-driven pantry staple for gluten-free and ketogenic home bakers, acting as the anchor item that organizes the rest of the basket (leavening, binders, fats, dairy/non-dairy binders, sweeteners). Households are the dominant end-use segment, and North America remains the leading growth hub. In keto/gluten-free applications, almond flour is the key quality driver that improves structure, mouthfeel, and acceptance compared with high-fiber substitutes alone, which supports repeat purchase and a relatively stable (though not high-frequency) buy cycle (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021; Almond Board of California, 2025).

• Frequency implications: In the absence of direct panel-based frequency data in the provided sources, triangulation from package size (common 1 lb retail), typical recipe use (≈130 g per batch in exemplar cookie formulation), and household dominance suggests a moderate purchase frequency. A 1 lb bag supports approximately three to four bakes; for regular home bakers (biweekly to weekly), that implies roughly monthly to 6-week repurchase; for occasional bakers, 2–4 months. Price points around $7.49/lb for blanched, super-fine flour frame almond flour as a considered purchase rather than an impulse item (The Fresh Grocer, 2025).

• Basket role: Almond flour is an anchor and “basket builder” in gluten-free and keto missions. It predictably co-travels with leavening (baking powder), binders (psyllium husk, xanthan), eggs or plant-based egg replacers (e.g., aquafaba), fats (butter, oils), cultured dairy/alternatives (cream cheese or plant cream), sweeteners, flavorings, and often auxiliary fibers. Its technical performance—particularly with blanched, fine grinds—supports premium positioning in baking and coating mixes, reinforcing adjacencies in bakery aisles and specialty health sets (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021; Almond Board of California, 2025).

1) Data quality, scope, and how to read this report

• High-reliability inputs: peer-reviewed food science on texture/acceptance in ketogenic bread formulations using almond flour; industry body technical guidance on almond flour forms and use-cases (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021; Almond Board of California, 2025).

• Supplementary inputs: consumer sensory data from vegan cookie testing contrasting almond vs. hazelnut flour; retail pricing and claims for a mainstream blanched almond flour SKU; multiple market research estimates (not harmonized) for directional triangulation of category size/growth; trade narrative that North America and household end-use drive share (Köse et al., 2024; The Fresh Grocer, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Market Research Future, 2025; Straits Research, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• On “basket role” analytics: The provided sources include methodological primers for Market Basket Analysis (Apriori-based association rules) but no almond-flour-specific basket datasets; insights herein therefore combine empirical product-formulation adjacencies and mission-based logic with established MBA concepts (Lee, 2024).

2) Demand context: category size, who buys, and where growth is

Despite variance across vendor estimates, three robust patterns emerge:

• Household end-use leads share: Household is the largest end-use segment as consumers incorporate almond flour into home baking and cooking, aided by the versatility across gluten-free and keto recipes and by expanding retail availability (Market Research Future, 2025).

• North America leads growth: Strong almond production (e.g., California), broad awareness of gluten-free/paleo/keto, and strong retail and foodservice adoption anchor regional growth leadership (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• Blanched, fine grinds preferred in baking: Fine particle size and lighter color deliver smoother mouthfeel and consistent appearance—critical for confectionery and bakery—reinforcing the role of blanched flour in premium baking SKUs (Almond Board of California, 2025).

Market size estimates vary widely; use directionally with caution:

Market size and growth estimates (vendor-supplied)

Interpretation: Even allowing for methodological differences, multiple firms converge on high single-digit CAGR, with household usage and baking applications central. For retailers and CPGs, this supports investment in steady, planned-purchase missions rather than assuming high-velocity impulse dynamics (Future Market Insights, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025).

3) Product performance in use: why almond flour anchors the basket

Peer-reviewed sensory and mechanical data in ketogenic breads reveal almond flour’s centrality to quality:

• Texture and structure: Higher ratios of almond flour yielded more open crumb (1–4 mm2 cell size), lower firmness and chewiness over time, and higher cohesiveness—attributes preferred by trained panels and consumers compared to high-oat-bran-fiber loaves that skew dense and firm (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

• Acceptance and repeat propensity: Breads with higher almond flour proportion were consistently preferred in QDA and consumer testing, a strong leading indicator for repeat purchase of the flour itself as the critical success ingredient in keto/gluten-free bakes (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

• Flavor interplay: Almond flour can amplify eggy notes in egg-bound keto formulations, while higher oat bran fiber can introduce earthy notes; this taste profile nudges complementary purchases like vanilla, spices, and sweeteners to rebalance flavor. Over time, almond-flour breads softened while fiber-only breads firmed, further supporting almond flour’s role in delivering desirable fresh-keeping and mouthfeel (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

Technical guidance from the Almond Board reinforces use-cases that drive cross-category adjacencies: coating/breading, gluten-free base, binders/thickening, inclusions, and baking mixes. Alternative forms (e.g., defatted/“almond protein” flours) offer extra-fine texture and lower fat, expanding formulation opportunities in mixes, snacks, and coatings that may alter basket linkages toward savory batters and high-protein claims (Almond Board of California, 2025).

4) Basket role: anchor, builder, and adjacency map

Almond flour functions as an “anchor” SKU in keto and gluten-free baking missions: it is the high-intent item that triggers planned trips or online orders, and it organizes the rest of the basket. The most defensible adjacencies come directly from successful, consumer-validated keto bread formulations and technical use guidance:

Basket adjacencies grounded in formulation

Practical merchandising implication: Place blanched, super-fine almond flour as the hero SKU in a gluten-free/keto “project bay” with direct adjacencies (psyllium, baking powder, sweeteners, keto-friendly chocolate chips, seed toppings) and cross-navigation to refrigerated eggs/alternatives and butter/plant fats. For e-commerce, bundle-ready kits (almond flour + psyllium + leavening + sweetener) will increase AOV and reduce shopper friction.

5) Purchase frequency: triangulated estimate by household segment

Direct, empirical purchase-frequency data are not contained within the provided sources. However, several credible inputs allow a reasoned estimate:

• SKU size and price: Common blanched, super-fine bag at 1 lb, ~$7.49 retail (The Fresh Grocer, 2025).

• Recipe drawdown: In the vegan acibadem cookie test, each batch used ≈130 g of almond flour; a 1 lb bag (≈454 g) yields ≈3–4 batches. In many keto bread recipes, flour drawdown per loaf is in a similar order of magnitude, often 150–250 g when used in blends, which implies 2–3 loaves per bag (estimation from formulation patterns; exact grams depend on recipe) (Köse et al., 2024; Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

Segmented inference of purchase cadence

These are transparent, assumption-based estimates derived from package size and documented recipe quantities. They should be validated with retailer panel data or MBA on actual baskets; however, they are operationally useful for forecasting replenishment and for sizing auto-replenishment intervals in DTC and marketplaces (Lee, 2024).

6) Channel and packaging: signals for frequency and basket building

• Household share and online access: Category growth is reinforced by the ease of online procurement, expanded distribution across supermarkets and health channels, and the appeal to home cooks seeking gluten-free and keto options—factors that encourage planned, periodic reorders and subscription potential (Market Research Future, 2025; Straits Research, 2025).

• Packaging and form: Blanched, super-fine SKUs (resealable pouches) are designed for repeated pantry use and better appearance in baked goods; defatted flours/protein variants open a path for high-protein mixes and coating applications, potentially broadening basket adjacencies into savory meal solutions (e.g., air-fryer coatings with spices and oils) (The Fresh Grocer, 2025; Almond Board of California, 2025).

7) Price positioning and elasticity context

• At ~$7.49 per 1 lb for a store brand super-fine blanched flour, almond flour is a premium ingredient relative to commodity wheat flours, reinforcing its role as a planned purchase with cross-item substitutions limited by dietary requirements (gluten-free, keto) (The Fresh Grocer, 2025).

• Vendor reports highlight premiumization and clean-label drivers; retail-ready blends and broader availability increase convenience. Together, these trends support steady volume among target shoppers while enabling laddered pricing between natural/unblanched, blanched, and defatted/protein flour variants (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

8) Consumer acceptance nuances that shape co-purchases

• Keto breads: Almond flour improves structure and acceptance relative to oat bran fiber alone; however, noticeable “eggy” notes increase with almond flour in egg-rich formulas. This reliably adds vanilla, citrus zest, spices, and sweeteners to the basket as flavor modulators (Gillespie & Ahlborn, 2021).

• Vegan cookies: In a consumer sensory screen for acibadem-like cookies, a hazelnut-flour variant outscored the almond-flour variant on overall liking at this early stage. For retailers and brands, that suggests a segment of plant-based bakers may alternate bases (almond, hazelnut) by recipe, keeping aquafaba and powdered sugar as constants. Cross-merchandising among nut flours is rational when the shopper’s mission is “vegan meringue-style cookie” rather than “almond-specific” (Köse et al., 2024).

9) Applying Market Basket Analysis (MBA): what to measure

Where data access allows, aim association rules at:

• Antecedent: almond flour; consequents: psyllium, baking powder, keto sweeteners, eggs/egg alternatives, butter/plant fats, cream cheese/plant cream, apple cider vinegar, flavorings (vanilla), chocolate chips, seeds/nuts.

• Segmentation: Distinguish household missions (weekly keto bread vs. occasional holiday cookies) by co-occurrence patterns and cadence.

• Form differentiation: Blanched super-fine vs. natural almond meal vs. defatted/protein flour—look for divergent savory vs. sweet adjacencies.

• Channel comparison: In-store vs. online baskets; expect higher cross-category co-purchase online via kits and bundles.

The Apriori framework with support, confidence, and lift is well-suited to quantify the above; rules with lift >1 indicate meaningful co-purchase synergies suitable for adjacency planning and bundled promotions (Lee, 2024).

10) My evidence-based opinion

• Almond flour is not a high-frequency commodity like milk or bread; it is a moderate-frequency, high-intent pantry staple for target households. Its role as an anchor and basket builder is unusually strong for a single ingredient: without it, the mission (keto/gluten-free baking) cannot proceed. This dependency, combined with demonstrated sensory superiority in keto bread quality, underwrites consistent replenishment among core users roughly monthly to six-weekly, with longer cycles for flex users.

• Retailers and brands should lean into kits and adjacency strategies that reduce friction on the rest of the mission (binders, leavening, fats, sweeteners, flavors), and use blanched, super-fine SKUs as the hero for baking missions while trialing defatted/protein flours to open savory and high-protein use-cases.

• Given household dominance and strong online availability, auto-replenish and subscription offers at 4–8 week intervals are aligned with real-world drawdown patterns for core users.

• Finally, flavor management matters. Where eggy notes may appear in keto applications, curated bundles with vanilla, cinnamon, or citrus flavors can elevate success rates and drive repeat purchases.

Limitations

• The provided materials do not include panel-based purchase frequency or true MBA outputs specific to almond flour; the cadence estimates and adjacency logic are grounded in recipe-level evidence, technical guidance, and price/pack size triangulation and should be validated with retailer transaction data.

Conclusion

Almond flour’s basket role is clear: it is the anchor ingredient enabling gluten-free and keto baking at home, and it reliably organizes the rest of the basket around structure-building (binders, leavening), taste-balancing (sweeteners, flavorings), and tenderizing (fats, dairy/non-dairy). Scientific evidence that higher almond flour ratios drive better texture and consumer liking in keto bread explains why households that bake regularly keep almond flour on a steady repurchase cycle. For retailers and CPGs, the winning playbooks are adjacency optimization, bundle design, and sensible replenishment intervals—all grounded in the way shoppers actually cook and bake with almond flour.

References

• Almond Board of California. (2025, February). Almond flour technical takeaways. Almonds.com. https://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2025-02/Almond_Flour_Technical_Takeaways.pdf

• Future Market Insights. (2025). Almond flour market size, share & industry forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

• Gillespie, R., & Ahlborn, G. (2021). Mechanical, sensory, and consumer evaluation of ketogenic, gluten-free breads. Foods, 10(6), 1263. National Library of Medicine (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8194744/

• Köse, M., Keser, S., & Karagöz, D. (2024). Sensory analysis of vegan Acibadem cookie produced from aquafaba in terms of consumers and evaluation of purchase intention. Journal of Food Quality and Hazards Control. National Library of Medicine (PMC). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12010194/

• Lee, E. (2024, March 7). Customer purchasing patterns with market basket analysis. DrLee.io. https://drlee.io/customer-purchasing-patterns-with-market-basket-analysis-3fbbc55c50cf

• Market Research Future. (2025). Almond flour market size, share, trends, industry reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860

• Persistence Market Research. (2025). Almond flour market size, share & growth analysis, 2032. Persistence Market Research. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/almond-flour-market.asp

• Straits Research. (2025). Almond flour market growth, trends and forecast to 2031. Straits Research. https://straitsresearch.com/report/almond-flour-market

• The Fresh Grocer. (2025). Bowl & Basket Specialty Super Fine Blanched Almond Flour, 1 lb. The Fresh Grocer. https://www.thefreshgrocer.com/product/bowl-&-basket-specialty-super-fine-blanched-almond-flour-1-lb-00041190070275

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the typical purchase frequency for almond flour among consumers?

Almond flour typically sees a moderate purchase frequency, with core users repurchasing every 3 to 6 weeks, while occasional bakers may buy every 2 to 4 months. This is based on the common 1 lb bag size, which supports approximately 3 to 4 baking batches.

How does almond flour function as a basket builder in consumer purchases?

Almond flour serves as an anchor item in gluten-free and keto baking, organizing the rest of the shopping basket around complementary ingredients like leavening agents, binders, and sweeteners. Its role as a high-intent item encourages planned trips or online orders, enhancing overall basket value.

What are the key consumer segments purchasing almond flour?

The primary consumer segments include households focused on keto and gluten-free baking, which dominate the market. These households are driven by the versatility of almond flour in various recipes, leading to consistent demand and growth in North America.

How does packaging influence the purchase behavior of almond flour?

Almond flour is often packaged in resealable pouches, which facilitate repeated use and maintain product freshness. This packaging design, along with the premium positioning of blanched, super-fine flour, encourages consumers to view it as a staple for their baking needs.

What price point is almond flour typically sold at, and how does it affect purchasing decisions?

Almond flour is generally priced around $7.49 per 1 lb bag, positioning it as a premium ingredient compared to commodity flours. This pricing reinforces its status as a planned purchase rather than an impulse buy, particularly among health-conscious consumers.

What are the implications of almond flour's role in baking for retailers?

Retailers should focus on creating product displays that highlight almond flour alongside its common pairings, such as baking powder and sweeteners, to enhance cross-selling opportunities. Bundling these items in kits can also streamline the shopping experience and increase average order value.

How does almond flour's performance in recipes impact consumer loyalty?

Almond flour has been shown to improve the texture and acceptance of baked goods, particularly in keto recipes, which drives repeat purchases. Consumers consistently prefer products made with higher ratios of almond flour, reinforcing its importance as a key ingredient in their baking endeavors.