• The global almond flour market is projected to grow from approximately USD 2.50 billion in 2024 to USD 6.19 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of ~8.6% from 2025 to 2035, driven primarily by the baking sector, which accounts for about 58.7% of demand.

• Organic almond flour is expected to capture 45-60% of market revenue by 2025, with a strong upward trend towards 60-65% by 2030-2035, fueled by consumer preferences for clean-label and sustainable products.

• The industrial/commercial segment remains the largest end-use category, estimated at 55-65% of revenue in 2025, while the household segment is rapidly growing, projected to reach 20-25% due to increased retail packaging and e-commerce penetration.

• Online sales are forecasted to rise to 35-42% of total revenue by 2025, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards digital marketplaces, while offline channels will still dominate but with a declining share.

Segmentation (Nature, End Use, Channel)

Almond Flour Segmentation: Nature, End Use, and Distribution Channels (2025 Outlook)

Product: Almond Flour
Section: Market Size & Forecasts

Executive summary

• Nature (Conventional vs Organic): The organic segment has decisively moved from a niche to a mainstream revenue leader in many analyses, although reported shares vary. The newest comprehensive forecast from Market Research Future indicates organic accounts for about 60% of market revenue in 2024–2025, driven by clean-label, non-GMO, and sustainability preferences. However, Future Market Insights suggests organic’s share is closer to 40% in 2025, highlighting definitional and scope differences across studies. On balance, a reasonable 2025 revenue share range for organic is 45–60%, with a clear upward trajectory toward the low 60s by 2030–2035 as premiumization and certifications expand distribution (Market Research Future, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• End use (Industrial/Commercial, Foodservice, Household): Industrial/commercial remains the largest end-use cluster by revenue and volume. Allied Market Research’s baseline (2019) shows commercial at 64.4% share versus household, and multiple sources maintain “industrial” as the leading end-use in recent years. Household is growing rapidly post-pandemic via retail standard pack sizes and e-commerce, while foodservice recovers as menus incorporate gluten-free and keto-friendly baked goods. We estimate 2025 shares at roughly 55–65% industrial/commercial, 15–20% foodservice, and 20–25% household by revenue, with household and foodservice gaining mix through 2030 (Allied Market Research, n.d.-a; Market Research Future, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Distribution channels (Offline vs Online; Supermarkets/Hypermarkets, Specialty, Convenience, Online Retail): Offline channels are still the largest, but growth leadership belongs to online. In 2019, offline accounted for ~67.5% of sales; since then, digital marketplaces and D2C have accelerated discovery of specialized formats (e.g., blanched extra-fine, organic) and subscription replenishment. We estimate 2025 shares at ~58–65% offline and ~35–42% online for almond flour, with supermarkets/hypermarkets dominant within offline, and online retail the fastest-growing channel. By 2030, the split could approach parity in mature markets as retailers unify omnichannel fulfillment (Allied Market Research, n.d.-a; Global Industry Analysts/Lucintel via GII, 2024–2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

Market context and sources

• Size and growth: The global almond flour market was valued around USD 2.50 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach USD 6.19 billion by 2035 (CAGR ~8.6% over 2025–2035). Baking remains the primary application, accounting for an estimated 58.7% of almond-flour demand, underscoring the centrality of the bakery value chain to segmentation dynamics. North America leads in demand and supply (California), with Europe mature and Asia-Pacific expanding fastest from a smaller base (Market Research Future, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Method note: This report synthesizes recent, recognized industry research providers (Market Research Future, Future Market Insights, Allied Market Research, and Insight Partners) and triangulates figures where sources diverge. Market sizes and shares differ by scope (e.g., almond meal vs flour, blanched vs natural, revenue vs volume) and by time baseline, so we present ranges where appropriate and state a reasoned opinion grounded in the convergence of evidence. Older baselines (e.g., 2018–2019) are used to anchor directional changes post-2020 (Market Research Future, 2025; Allied Market Research, n.d.-a; The Insight Partners, n.d.).

1) Segmentation by nature (conventional vs organic)

Key findings and interpretation

• Organic’s momentum: Newer datasets place organic as the revenue leader by 2024–2025: MRFR cites organic at roughly 60% of market revenue, reflecting premium price points, clean-label demand, non-GMO/fair-trade certifications, and perceived environmental stewardship. Persistence Market Research also highlights the premium-organic opportunity as a structural growth avenue. FMI, however, positions organic closer to 40% share in 2025. Reconciling these, our view is that organic’s 2025 revenue share likely sits in the mid-50s in markets with broad organic distribution (U.S., Western Europe), while global blended share falls in a 45–60% range given emerging-market channel mix. The direction of travel is clearly toward higher organic penetration and premiumization globally (Market Research Future, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Conventional’s role: Insight Partners notes conventional led in 2018, consistent with early-stage adoption and limited organic capacity. Conventional remains critical in volume-driven industrial formulations (price-sensitive bakery and confectionery) and in markets where organic certification penetration or consumer willingness to pay is lower. It also dominates private-label value tiers. Over time, the conventional mix will cede revenue share to organic, though conventional volume may remain substantial as price elasticity matters for mass-market SKUs (The Insight Partners, n.d.).

Drivers and constraints

• Drivers of organic share gains:

  • Clean-label, non-GMO, pesticide-free preferences; alignment with gluten-free, keto, paleo, and whole-food trends.
  • Retailers showcasing organic alternatives in both center-store and e-commerce search, improving visibility.
  • Certifications (USDA Organic, EU Organic) and traceability narratives supporting brand trust and price premiums.
  • Corporate ESG commitments in CPG and foodservice procurement favoring certified inputs (Market Research Future, 2025; Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• Constraints:

  • Organic raw nut availability and higher farm-gate and processing costs.
  • Price-sensitive segments (economy bakery, some emerging markets) sustaining demand for conventional.
  • Variability in regional certification frameworks and supply chain verification costs (Future Market Insights, 2025).

Outlook

We anticipate organic’s revenue share rising ~2–3 percentage points every 2–3 years in mature retail landscapes, reaching ~60–65% globally by 2030–2035, contingent on supply, certification scale, and retail price gaps. Blanched organic variants will capture a growing slice of premium baking and clean-label snack innovation (Market Research Future, 2025).

Table 1. Nature segmentation snapshot and outlook

2) Segmentation by end use (industrial/commercial, foodservice, household)

Key findings and interpretation

• Industrial/commercial dominance: Allied’s 2019 baseline places commercial at 64.4% share; recent sources (MRFR) continue to cite “industrial” as the largest end-use. Drivers include high-volume bakery and confectionery production (cookies, cakes, gluten-free bread, coatings) and emerging uses in dairy-alternative bases and nutritional bars where almond flour’s texture and fat-protein profile add functionality. Economies of scale and consistent supply chains underpin this segment’s structural weight (Allied Market Research, n.d.-a; Market Research Future, 2025).

• Household (retail/consumer) acceleration: Retail standard packaging (e.g., 454 g/1 lb, 2 lb) has democratized home baking and snack experimentation; FMI expects retail standard packs to capture ~35% of market share in 2025. E-commerce and specialty aisles broaden access to blanched extra-fine and organic SKUs, and home bakers value almond flour’s moisture-retention and tender crumb in gluten-free applications. This segment has grown faster than industrial since 2020, though from a smaller base (Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Foodservice (HORECA): As restaurants and cafes expand gluten-free and low-carb offerings, almond flour appears in pastries, dessert crusts, breadings/coatings, and specialty pancakes. Recovery in foodservice traffic supports renewed growth; however, the segment remains smaller than industrial in revenue terms given menu mix constraints and procurement costs (Future Market Insights, 2025).

Estimated 2025 shares (reasoned opinion)

• Industrial/Commercial: 55–65% of revenue (largest).
• Household/Retail: 20–25% and rising as retail and online penetration deepen.
• Foodservice: 15–20%, recovering with menu innovation (regionally variable).

Regional nuance

• North America: Highest industrial share due to established gluten-free bakery and snack manufacturing and almond supply proximity; retail household is large and sophisticated.
• Europe: Strong industrial bakery with clean-label emphasis; premium organic household segment is meaningful.
• Asia-Pacific: Household and foodservice adoption growing quickly from a smaller base, with localized applications gaining traction (Market Research Future, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

Table 2. End-use segmentation snapshot and outlook

3) Segmentation by distribution channel (offline vs online; subchannels)

Key findings and interpretation

• Offline remains the anchor, online grows fastest: In 2019, offline channels (supermarkets/hypermarkets, specialty, convenience) held ~67.5% share. Since then, accelerated e-commerce adoption, specialty D2C, and marketplace search visibility for “organic,” “blanched,” or “extra-fine” almond flour have lifted online share. For 2025, we assess offline at ~58–65% of revenue and online at ~35–42%, with online’s growth underpinned by variety-seeking consumers, subscription convenience, and long-tail product discovery. Supermarkets/hypermarkets continue to dominate offline in both value and volume, while specialty retailers curate premium assortments (Allied Market Research, n.d.-a; Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Role of omnichannel: Retailers’ unified inventory, click-and-collect, and ship-from-store capabilities blur lines between “online” and “offline.” For segmentation clarity, this report classifies sales by consumer purchase interface at the time of order. Omnichannel will steadily reduce the differential in price and availability across channels through 2030 (Global Industry Analysts/Lucintel via GII, 2024–2025).

• Regional and product nuances: Online’s share is highest in North America and certain European markets and is also pivotal for reaching niche keto/paleo communities globally. Premium organic and blanched variants over-index online; value conventional formats over-index in mass offline chains.

Table 3. Channel segmentation snapshot and outlook

Implications for market participants

• Portfolio by nature:

  • Expand certified organic SKUs with transparent sourcing and traceability; pair with credible sustainability claims (water stewardship, pollinator-friendly) to support price premiums.
  • Maintain conventional options for price-sensitive buyers and industrial clients; optimize grind and functional performance to defend share (Persistence Market Research, 2025).

• End-use focus:

  • Industrial/commercial: Offer consistent spec sheets (protein, fat, particle size), ensure QA/QC, and secure forward contracts; co-develop with bakery R&D for gluten-free textures and shelf-life.
  • Foodservice: Provide culinary guidance (coatings, batters, dessert bases) and food-cost calculators; offer mid-bulk pack sizes for kitchens.
  • Household: Grow retail standard packs and variety packs; provide recipe content and QR-linked tips to increase repeat usage (Future Market Insights, 2025).

• Channel strategy:

  • Offline: Win at shelf with clear claims (“blanched extra-fine,” “superfine grind,” “keto-friendly”), secondary placements in gluten-free aisles, and cross-promotions with baking mixes.
  • Online: Optimize search (SEO/SEM on “almond flour,” “blanched almond flour,” “organic almond flour”), lean into ratings/reviews, and offer subscriptions; use retail media networks to target dietary audiences.
  • Omnichannel: Harmonize pricing and inventory; use click-and-collect to convert heavy online researchers who prefer store pickup (Allied Market Research, n.d.-a; Future Market Insights, 2025).

Risks and considerations

• Supply-side: Weather and water constraints in key almond-producing regions can tighten supply, affecting organic availability and pricing spreads. Hedging and supplier diversification (e.g., Australia, Spain) mitigate risk (Market Research Future, 2025).

• Data comparability: Divergences in market size and share estimates across providers often stem from taxonomy (almond meal vs flour), inclusion of industrial mixes, and treatment of pack formats or regions. Strategy should be guided by multi-source triangulation and internal sell-out data.

• Competitive alternatives: Sunflower seed flour, coconut flour, and chickpea flour compete in gluten-free baking; however, almond flour’s fat composition and mouthfeel remain distinct advantages.

Our opinionated synthesis

• Nature: Organic is now the revenue engine of category growth. Despite variance across sources (40–60% share in 2025), trajectory is unequivocally positive. Brands that invest in certified organic, maintain consistent grind profiles (especially blanched superfine), and communicate traceability will capture the bulk of mix shift.

• End use: Industrial/commercial remains the backbone, but household’s outsized growth—enabled by retail pack standardization and e-commerce—will continue. Foodservice presents an underexploited bridge between industrial scale and consumer trial; culinary enablement can unlock it.

• Channels: Offline still leads, but the speed and quality of online execution (search, content, subscription, reviews) will be the main separator of growth share over the next 3–5 years. By 2030, omnichannel excellence—not offline dominance per se—will define the leaders.

Supporting market sizing anchor points: The category’s expansion from ~USD 2.50 billion (2024) to ~USD 6.19 billion (2035) implies robust space for premium organic growth and for channel shifts toward online, even if conventional and offline remain pivotal in absolute terms. Baking’s enduring share (~58.7%) reinforces the need to tune particle size, blanching choices, and moisture management for both industrial and household applications (Market Research Future, 2025; Future Market Insights, 2025).

References

Allied Market Research. (n.d.-a). Almond Flour Market Size to Garner $1,704.23 Million by 2027. Allied Market Research. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/press-release/almond-flour-market.html

Allied Market Research. (n.d.-b). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Growth | Report Forecast 2027. Allied Market Research. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/almond-flour-market-A06392

Future Market Insights. (2025). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. Future Market Insights. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market

Global Industry Analysts (Lucintel). (2024–2025). Almond Flour Market Report: Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis to 2031. GII Research. https://www.giiresearch.com/report/luci1720358-almond-flour-market-report-trends-forecast.html

Market Research Future. (2025, October). Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Trends, Industry Reports, 2035. Market Research Future. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860

Persistence Market Research. (2025, October 7). Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Growth Analysis, 2032. Persistence Market Research. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/almond-flour-market.asp

The Insight Partners. (n.d.). Almond Flour Market Report Size, Share, Growth & Scope 2027. The Insight Partners. https://www.theinsightpartners.com/reports/almond-flour-market

All URLs used (unique, hyperlinked)

• Allied Market Research. Almond Flour Market Size to Garner $1,704.23 Million by 2027. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/press-release/almond-flour-market.html
• Allied Market Research. Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Growth | Report Forecast 2027. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/almond-flour-market-A06392
• Future Market Insights. Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Industry Forecast 2025–2035. https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/almond-flour-market
• Global Industry Analysts (Lucintel) via GII Research. Almond Flour Market Report: Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis to 2031. https://www.giiresearch.com/report/luci1720358-almond-flour-market-report-trends-forecast.html
• Market Research Future. Almond Flour Market Size, Share, Trends, Industry Reports, 2035. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/almond-flour-market-18860
• Persistence Market Research. Almond Flour Market Size, Share & Growth Analysis, 2032. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/almond-flour-market.asp
• The Insight Partners. Almond Flour Market Report Size, Share, Growth & Scope 2027. https://www.theinsightpartners.com/reports/almond-flour-market

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected market share for organic almond flour by 2025?

The market share for organic almond flour is estimated to range from 40% to 60% by 2025, with Market Research Future suggesting it could reach around 60%. This growth is driven by increasing consumer preferences for clean-label and non-GMO products.

How does the end-use segmentation of almond flour look for 2025?

By 2025, the end-use segmentation is expected to show industrial/commercial at 55-65%, foodservice at 15-20%, and household at 20-25%. The industrial/commercial segment remains dominant due to high-volume bakery production, while household use is rapidly increasing thanks to retail packaging and e-commerce.

What are the key distribution channels for almond flour in 2025?

In 2025, offline channels are projected to account for approximately 58-65% of sales, while online channels are expected to capture 35-42%. The online segment is growing rapidly due to increased consumer interest in specialty products and the convenience of e-commerce.

How has the demand for almond flour changed post-pandemic?

Post-pandemic, the household segment has seen significant growth, driven by retail standard packaging and the rise of home baking. This segment is expected to capture around 20-25% of the market share by 2025, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior.

What factors are driving the growth of organic almond flour?

The growth of organic almond flour is primarily driven by clean-label preferences, non-GMO certifications, and increasing consumer awareness of sustainability. Retailers are also enhancing visibility for organic products, which supports their market penetration.

Which regions are expected to lead in almond flour demand by 2025?

North America is anticipated to lead in almond flour demand due to its established gluten-free bakery market and proximity to almond supply. Europe also shows strong industrial bakery demand, while the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid growth from a smaller base.

How will the market for almond flour evolve by 2030-2035?

By 2030-2035, organic almond flour's revenue share is expected to rise to 60-65% globally, driven by premiumization and broader distribution. The overall market is projected to grow from approximately USD 2.50 billion in 2024 to USD 6.19 billion by 2035, indicating robust opportunities for growth.